Created: 8/20/1988

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Dime tor o' Contral intcUlggnt*

National Intelligence Daily






Special Analysis

INTERNATIONAL: Outlook tor UN Pnaceheeptng Operallont

As some HO UN oOiervera Pepinonitor tho cease-fro between Unit tnd free,y are Ilk air to encounterseme sorts Of problems that batter it tho olher imn currtnl mw'llnef'one/ peaemtaeptng operations Al least Initially. tne'r mobility mill be limited by whatever ttantportatloni't are willing lo provide, anrf ci will ba hard preaiad to ' ine more man 0l herder. Alone of (heae problems It 'IkeJy fo undarmine the mixtion, however, aaJongaa both Iran and frag remain commuted to Ihe cease-"re. IJJ

The UN Iran-Iraq Military OMerver Group (JNMUOG) will rr/rjoy srrveial advantages Ihal other UN peaceaeopng operatlona arc*;

Tehran and Dnghdad have agreed to an Internationally tioHtvft! cease-bre. whereas In A'gtan-stan. for oasmcle. the insurgents area'ty to the Geneva Accords that established I'm UN Good Offices Mrsaam.

Iheave lhe capacity to implement the agrawment. whwwas In Lebanon the government is unable to control armnd factions In Ihe soutr mat challenge the UN Cutter force

Unlike the unOcrfunced UN force; in Cyprus, ware iso provide Ihe necessary personnel and funds.

Although the condllions to- Ibe UN group In lion and Iraq are promising. Ihe group will need to be sustained well beyond the Initial sbt-month mandate if UNIIMOG Is to Help resolve lie corrflicl In Ihe India-Pakistan confliclwhich la slmaar.'ymiliary observers have been deployed to Kasnmir lot almostears, and there is st'll Utile prospect lhat Ihey can oe safely wither*

Demand Way Up for Peacekeeping Operations

The Han-Iraq mlecMn is the second multinational pe-ncrxacpng operation io be launched In the past lour months, aid at least lwo more mayjer taken witran am Aprt. tha UN Good Offices Vstonn A'gia' is'a* and fanujian wars rrsufcfaned5uch uwgrer force,N troops, is planned lo monitor Nan-ibta's transitionnd supporleieiendum in Western Sahara might Involve seveial Ihousa/'d UN

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Wetriing tbe new rersuiremenlss difficult even though many countriestrie fistftrcf that peace* tece besi-tra'rea and most Nghry Qualified peacekeeping foopr including Ihoaa If om Canada and In* rvordbrc titaafly iieavlly commlilao to existing operations For any conmbuling country, moreover, lha in-pecl on national miliary foresa peesondnunioer of kroope decaoyeOc. units,cta'ed every at* mo-rtn. and auch rotation reQukee avn,ai training o! at Iras! twice a* many tores* as are actuary deployed.

Requlremonta lor pilots and technicians are particularly burdensome because they are in snort supply In many armed forces Furthermore, many ol trie countries that contrlCute troops absorb the Bulk ol the financial burden Because peacekeeping operationso be unde<rtir>ded Coats tor Brass operations no* account tor more titan nan of the UN debt. pBJ*ssssj

Pro spec la

Tha UN has accumjtatsc cens-^abte operienc* in moreperabons ove* the pastears. bt/ tn/en so it hs not sve'i preparedeat the increasing carmanO Regional organlzallon* like the Organization ot Amerfcan States and Ihe Organization ol Atrlcan unity that alao have attempted peacekeeping ope'atione are even less ptepared lor new etlO'ts The UN'e lack old.caleddecuale stocapites ol ccmmun-catlens and Che-csapment and by an ataefne* ol standara .ratier ot erautprnerfl Advanced technology that woald enable more ailleclive monitoring c* military activity,ide range o* romole sensors, generally has not been used by peacekeeping lorcee. No minimum training standard* have been established to* peacekeeping

these shortcomings and others, along with personnel and financial constraints, will not preclude future peacekeeping operations but will make the fob more dlHcufl. In particular, financial pressures are likely to result In Hie deploymenl ol forces that are Insufficient lor the tasks they '

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