Created: 8/25/1988

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Irritwlujl Body Tolame lor tha War Iran expects Iraq lo oe laboiod Ilie nnflrewo* iraq will not accept sole responsibility tor the conflict. Compromtae might Involve soma cmiolam of Iraq for starting the wnr and criticism of Iran for continuing the conflict

naparatlonac Iran wants Iraq to pay reparations lor wa< damage that Tehran clairna totab several hundred baton etola'a. Corn promise mightaconBa<iion fund for both0 bBBon rxcMrJad byC Guff naie-s

att ai Arid tran la cano- raattrrnatiori of5 Atgiera accord, whk* Mtaorshnd the booncaryine thar-eg--tna center of the navigable channel. Iraq cleans the Algiers accord isnd that tha Iraqi border has reverted to tint east snore of the Shalt Iraq's position probablyargaining chip mat Baghdad hopes to Irndn for guarantees on (random of navtgalion in Ihe Shatt. the Persian Qulf. and the Strait of Hormuz.

Special Analysis

lor Geneva Talks

and Iraq seem committed to lull Implementation Of UN Uttoiution SOS, bur the negotiations that begin today in Geneveumprehentive peace ere likely to be protracted and dlttlcult Both countries havo sherplf divergent views about the way Wis talis should proceed ami the key issues Ittvotvttd. Iranian leaders who support the Resolution will be politicallyehran cannot claim thai many ol its key demands ere met. The regime in Baghdad Is more secure but isettlement tntt woulo help lustHy the costly war to its populact "

Each side is trying lo shape tne agenda tor talks in Geneva. Iraqon tace-io-race negotiations with Iran on alland will resist Intervention by UN Secretary GeneralCueJIar. The Iraqis distrust trie Secretary General, whom theyfavoring Iran, and Believe Iraq will gain greaierdirect talks.1

Iran wants to limit dkecl talks with Iraqew issues to prevent Baghdad Irom holding Implementation ot the Resolution hostage to demandsomprehensive settlement. Tehran is Insisting Ihe Secretary Generalimetable tor implementing most provisions otincluding troop withdrawals and the creation ol committees to assess blame for Ihe war and to consider reparations for damage- alter corseting separately with escnsidei


iraq wll continue to pressomprehensive peace solllemant thatLarsntaed By the UN Security Council and mat goes beyond tte aptotice flesoiuhon. lncludi.-rg assurances ot Iranian ncriaggraesior and rorwriartaranoe in kaq interna1 attakrte/eament to direct taaxs has not reduced iras* susparaons trtat ToVn- (till wants to oust the Pa fist ' in BaghflaO. eithor miktarlly or through subvernon

Iraqis are parlicularfy concerned thai supeopowc' courllng o( iiun will leer)atered-down peace seitiement. Thesoconcernsreflected in Iraoi media warningsre superpowaia and othc countries not to cotiscsre with fan to undermine iraqj

BaoHdad wiKxoed UN-sanctioned agreement tnai reduces its st'ttegc vus^ajyatry Dy guaraniet-ng freedom p*he Suit a- Arab, the Persian Gjt. and the Strait ol tormaz Ahhouph oil ptpMinet thrcvgl Turkey and Saudi Arabia have offset .raze lost ol



Guff exportyria's closure ol Irao's oil pipeline? underscored Ihe vulnerability of Iraqi rellar>ct on pipelines. Iraq has dispatched three ships through the Slrall ol Horrouz since lhe cease-lire lo emphasize lis claim lo freedom of navigation


Although Can's desire for ari and lo iho waralmosf ceriatily genuine. Tehran Is noi aa aagar as Iraqormal peace sal issuer. Powa'f ji 'adieafa li Irene leusdersvVp -erreM opposedrve acceclanc* of inc Reaotvl on. ueaehegardtway* ofravofulton Avatotah KhrjOuMrVs eruJors*mentrevents cJiracI chahengee for now. bul Aeaemtfy Speaker PUHaaniani and nti supporters will be vulnoraDhsttach foi any agreement (hat appnera loeace neitlernem on Baghdad's larms ot ihal reccqnlrei loo explicitlyegitimacy o' tno Ba'thtsl regima assssssaaj

i| try tt)cusauari in tha Srtl round o'or. speci'e prowsrons of iBfl and to statomprehensive snitlemant Iran wants provisions calling, for an assessment ol blame for tha war and lor war damage ropaiairons. The reglrno in Tehran will continue lolatemorl explicitly lacaii"si Iraq as the aggressor and to ins's" on Substantial reparations to demonstrateomestic opponenta matcan raratie co-cute gams *rom tru* tuno'utor and avrxJ mahhx, iViiti'Co Bac/Maa uamar supporters ol BescJut on ssoa nave long portrayed the fulfillment of these demands as the only acceptable alternative to military victory ovai iraq.pj


The two aides prooably will agree eventually to compromise formulas on most key Issues loests tor marolanlng tho peace. Iraq might try to use its mitiiary advantagehe talks become deadlocked for several weeks and if Baghdad ccvcludes that continued poll leaf pressure is futile. Even then. Baghdad probably would opt first for limited military action like air attacks. Hans military weakness will make it much less Htely to resume military operations, but Tehran might temporarily withdraw from the talks if Baghdad appeared to ba trying to Impose humiliating concessiona.1

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