Created: 10/11/1988

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Overthrow of much o* the nationalbefore ora party plenum onctober if Milosevics push for power la noi cneckea. his campaign coulOeplacement of the current collective, regionally balanced leadershiperb-dominated Yugoslavia and Milosevic installed as the pre-eminent figure ova could provoke violent backlash fromlbanians In Kosovo and resistance in other regions, possibly requiring the Army to Stef^fjandkeeporderTne Serp-Qomirmed military so far lias

bejleve It would accept Milosevic i* most of (no offer regions acgiilescodtrj his gosis.

Labor Unrest: The government's imposition last May ofconomic austerity measures has tad to numerous strikes and protests. Including marches by thousands of workers on the national assembly. Strikes could grow further and turn violent if the government holds firm to its austerity program and real wages eroda further. Milosevic may step up attempts toejolplt worker discontent to gam public support and topple government leaders, f p

Slovene-Military Tensions: Conflict between Slovenia and the Army peakedrial this past summer Inilitary court convicted three liberal Slovene journalists for betraying state secrets. Tensions have since abated but could Quickly flare up. especially if Milosevic canominant position in the pany. sway otherts. and get the mlrrury to take action against his critics In the Slovene leadership.

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