MIDDLE EAST BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 2 AUGUST 1988.

Created: 8/2/1988

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SUBJECT: HI0OLE EAST BRPAS.

iTEn

HE IGMTENEO SECURITY CONCERNS IN LEBANON

OVERDUE PATIENTS TO IW CROWING

H.ILITARY DISARRAY INCREASING

I. SYRIA: HEIGHTENED SECURITY CONCERNS IN LEBANON

PRn?iF?U'L- Ltm SUPPORT TOTO SYRIAN SECURITY CONCERNS THERE ANO AT

(

njEPRO-JRANIAN HI3

THE SYRIANS

rHBr'T.AU . WILL ^COURAGE ITS ALLY. THE

' DN0UCT OPERATIONS ACAlNST SYRIAN

lvl,llHAY INCREASE ITS ANTI -ami AN HARASSHtNTl

bi b3

SECRET

THC SYRIANS ARE LARMED THAT IRAQ MILL PUNISH STRIA FOR AtOING IRAN ONCE THE WAR ENDS. DAMASCUS HAS LONG BETH CONCERNED ABOUT IRAQI AID FOR THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD ANO OTHER INTERNAL DISSIDENTS. BUT THESE GROUPS ARE WEAK ANO HAVE LITTLE ORGANIZED SUPPORT WITHIN SYRIA. AMTI-STRIAN GROUPS IN LEBANON. CN THI OTHER HAND. COULO DAAAGC STRI All INTERESTS THERE AS Will AS

THE LEBANESE IORCES PROBABL* WILL AVTJIO SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFTING ANTI-SYFIIAH ATTACKS UNTIL AFTER THE LEBANESE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, WHICH IS TO BE HELD BEFOREEPTEMBER. UNLESS SYRIATRONGLYHRISTIAN CANDIDATE. IRAQ WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIOE LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT--MOSTLY ARMS ANOO THC LEBANESE FORCES. BUT BAGHDAD HAS LIMITED ABILITY TO INFLUENCE LEBANESE DEVELOPMENTS. THE IRANIAN-SUPPORTED HIZBALLAH. HOWEVER, MIGHT BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE IN LEBANON TO COUNTER RUMORS THAT ITS PATRON IS FLAGGING AFTER HAVING LOST TNE GULF WAR.

2. INTERNATIONAL! OVERDUE PAYMENTS TO IMF GROWING

FOR MCR1 INVOLVEDHE IR Ih

ARREARS TO THE IMF OFUMBER OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CONTINUE TO MOUNT, LARGELY BECAUSE <HEIR GOVERNMENTS ARE UNABLE TO CONTROL SPENDING AND INCREASE EXPORTS. IN THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS OF THI$ TEAR. OVERDUE PAYMENTS TO THE FUNO JUMPEDERCENT2 BlLi ION. Of THIS TOTAL. ABOUT HALF. ILLION. MAS BEEN CUEEAR OESPITE IMF EFFORTS TO HELP THE COUNTRIES ESTABLISH CORRECTIVE ECONOMIC POLICIES ANO, IN SOME CASES,SOURCES TO APPLY TOWARD CLEARING UP

! IMF PROBABLY WILL RISC EVEN FURTHER AS THIRD WORLO DEBTORS KEEP DRAGGING THEIR FEET ABOUT IMPLEMENTING AND flAINTAININC THE REFORMS NECESSARY TO STABILIZE TN|IR ECONOMIES. ESCALATING ARREARS WILL PROBABLY ICAO THE FUND TO FURTHER INCREASE THC RATES IT CHARCCS ON IMF CREDITS AND MIGHT RESTRICT OOL Or FUNCS AVAILABLE "OS FUTURE LENDING.

h3

]. SOMALIA: MILITARY DISARRAY INCREASING

PROBLtMS. SNARLED LOGI FRICTION ARE HAMPERING THEONTROL OF KEY NORTHERN TOWNSIRCRl'T WERE GROUNDED DURING "CSTS AND JET 'U'L i

ICS. AND HEIGHTINfC INTERCLAt ITARY'S EFFORTS TO REGAINJONS. SEVERAL GROUND SUPPORT TH BECAUSE OF

OEFEADNG THE REBELS. BUT AND HIGHRE DEMORALIZING GOVERNMENT

SECRET

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