Warning Page
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I itrarisni Reviewrjjfj
8
Thel Iran; Will Inui Retaliate?
lhe acctdenial showdown of Iran Air Flightby lhe USS VincennesS diplomatic pcsisxperienced anti-US deinonslra. uoaiandllekohoned bomb or death ihreai^Mfci^rMi
osaaiMMRftjl^riian-^ckra lerrorists Panttack US faeilllies and personnel, and meat-posts have goneigh state of alert, anticipating some sort ofatUck. Smral peats have reported surveillance by persons of Middle Eastern appearance.
We judge that the riskS interests of terrorist retaliation In the wskeof the downint of the Iranian airliner is high, even though some of these sigh lings and re-poru of imminent attack are probably reflections of little more lhan the high state of tension at our diplomatic and miliury facilities. Thc shifting miliury and poliiical situation inappaicntly agreedease-fireigranian leaders' recent gueai for Improved ir.tcrrai.ocu! stains will probably cause Iran to turn to surrogates when it decides to reuliate for the shooidown. Tehran apparently has returned its targeting of US facOiliea and personnel worldwide as wdt as providing encouragement andAl the tame lime. Iranian rhdoric against Wathington 'n Lk. -suing days it likely to encourage Islamic fundamentalist and terroriu groups not prevMusly linked to Iran to atuck USthat may not have Iranian approval
aSBJeb L 5
The Threats
SutcmcnU made by Assembly Speaker Hashemi-Rattanjani shortly after the airliner was downed in the Persian Gulf suggested lhal Tehran inlended to uke the diplomatic highroad and mailraizc the public beneriu from its role as victim in tbe incident. Other Iranian leaders'one attributed to AyatollahreUliationcale equal "to the magnitude of lhencouraged perhaps by this publk belligerency, anonymous callers have ihieaiened our embassies and consulates in many regions, including tbe Persianewhere in (he Ihe Middle East, Western Europe. Africa, and
3
Hi-
K'
The Shooldn-ii. Ih* HaJJ,Id' Hostagel
A lerrotitl operation directed by Inn orlurrogateot (he only way Tehran could threaten US Interests. Iranian rhclctK against Washington could alao incite Islamic eatll into violeni demonstrations. Wc believe the moilperiod for this kind ofaring Friday prayers, daring ihc i- -pilgrimage (ihe Hajj) to Saudi Arabia, andugust, the fortieth day followingoot down This lasl daleraditional day of mourning, which will coincide thii year wiih observance of thc Islamic new year. On ihc IOth day of the monih ofcommemorate ihe martyrdom of Ihe son-in-law and grandson of the Prophet with passion plays and ritual flagellation
calculated to touieemotions ol thr participants and observers. Men and boy* cut themselves with knives and raiort and inarch wrapped In ihroudi. many bleeding profusely. Wc believe these observances could easily turn into antl-USj 5
Twice following the accidental downing ot* tbe Iranian airliner, persons claiming to rejweaent the Hizballah lettomts holding US hostages inthreatened lo harm Ihcin. One of Ihe claims apparentlyoas. Thc other, however,hoto o( hostage Edward Tracy'stechniqueby the grouputhenticate claims. Wc believe these were tactics by Hizballah to discourage US actions agaml Iran. We judge that both HirbaHah and Iran consider the hostages loo valuable to be hilled in reprisal (or the downing rat the airliner. Tehran, moreover, would probably noi want threats against hostages to color Iu innoccjit posture as bereaved vicilm and thereby diminish wtnnatlc-nal
Oatleok
Although statements by some Iranian leaders suggested lhal Tehran would like to take thc diplomatic highroad and icdrrecourse in the United Nations and world opining, we believe Iran it, al thc same lime, maintaining Ihe option of terrorislek'1
Another danger isroup backed by Iran will irnpleroeni an opera lion that haseen io the planning meet but ibal will bow be carried eel as revenge for lbc downing of Iran Air FlightWc believe, for eutopic, that iadrndual terrorists within Hizballah are willing to freelance an operation without Iranian or Hizballah direction. These lerrorisu would be acting outongstanding frost ration with what they teeS conspliacy to attack Iran, deslroy the Palestinian cause, and help Israel. TheI alia lion for the victims of Iran Air. imerrtitVeda tho in the Persian Golf, or revenge for the murder of Abube confused, but lhal may not matter to Palestinian Shias orJ-teUMuV Easierrad-att frustrated by both PLO and Hizballah ^
^et*^
US interests In Bahrain or Kowi.ll are convenient, suitable targets. Both states hive large, Iranlai igm populationsand military-security agreements wiih the United States. In the past year. pro-Iranian terrorists have bombed several facilitiesncluding US-relnled airlines offices and private companies.
Tehran could draw on iu eitcmrvc assets in Dubai to rally protest ekenonstra<could easily tarnerroriit operation Iran Airas heading for Dubai, and many Iranians there apparently bad relatives oe board tbe aircraft.
Hiiballah lerrorisis who went responsible foy heijackinguwaiti airliner could try toS airliner or place eiptosives on board one. They would probably try to mount this kind of operation from an Asian or African airport where security is ba. American targets are more accessible, and local tuppori networks are in place.
Hiiballah or Islamic funds men tall its linked to Iran could attempt an attack against US intereau in fcurope We believe Greece and Cyprus arc likely venues, but Hiibalbh and Iran have astcu In many European cities lhat could be drawn on to support an operation.
t tparilual
guide, denounced tbe downing of lhe airliner shortly after the incident bul said il bad neKbme:o with the rate of ihe Western bottafesubsequent statement madeecentoliday, he calledhappy cadmi" to tbe bottases' ordeal and urged Tehran to press for iheir releaseumanitarian
Tehran. boweverThe hatimited Influence over ihe Hiibalbh tcioriits holding the remaining foreign hostages. Hiibalbh will certainly use the nonages io issue press statements denouncing the United Slates and will make the conditions of their detention more miseroble and threatening than iheyhave beenl
5
America
w
V
f esriirvrricy Stralrty
Prrjideni-eleci Rodrigo Borja'i inlentionore knicnl approach to terrorism rut provide aoenc breathing room for domestic rcbeU. but tbc greatlyinsurgentoorly rWiioceri to rcbouad. Uclike ouigotng President Febres-Coidere. whose lough counterterroriit measures disrupted the country's only viable insurgent group. Altars Vive, Carsjoorja favors dialogueeans lo suppress violence. He alto has stated thru hit governmcni would dismantle special groups in the security forces and eliminate torture In response to accusations of human righu abuse by police and the military duringordero's ccHintcrurrcaiirn campaign. Borja. however, wiii have to be mindful of the possible negative public react ion to his processed dialogue with AVC leadersotential backlash from police and military ofnciab if he tries to weaken Ihcir powers Human rights sctiviiti within his patty are likely to puah for tighter control of the security
3
Asia Pati.ua
Karachi Hijackers Cat Death SeMeac*
pceial coon ia Rawalpindi. Pakistan, sentenced five Aburr orals io death ia conncci.on with lac attempted hijack mj of Pao Ams Karachi aimosi two ran ago. Muhammadl-Turk, lhc hi-wchirif mastiramd. taid he and bra com pan wo, .ould appeal ihc tealcacc lo ihe Puajab Province High Court.udicial lysiem ta very alow, however, and if Ihe appeal, are not gtren specialinalould Uke aeveral
The lenience increases lhc protpeeu for rclaliaiory gttackt by lhc ANO against Pakitiani. and perhaps US. interests. In at lean one prcvioui case lhe group hat mounted aiucfclovernment holding tu mcmbera I
Treads
Libra
/The ANC: Changing Mililnry
reeeni lath of indiscriminate urban bombing) In South Africa suggests lhalAfricnn National Congress IANC) leadership is shilling, ill longitanrling emphasis on himng miliury and gorernmeni-relaied urgeisrovide military cadre more operational freedom This shifi In emphasis will result in greaier civilian casualties, including whiles. Thc ANC"sleadership in Lutsks In notre-Tiediuted campaign agair.il civilians. hut some ANC military ej-xielt apparently arc scchiag to increase whileie*itdcrrnioe white morale
Aljf ihem in crowded urbanoccurred in South Africa (his year, resulting in >oene II deaths and scores of injuries. Although these bomb>ngi lux resulted in far greater nonwhiie casuillics. lhe csplosionulyohannesburg nadlum spocari lo hurc bien spceifi-cally planned to inflicl misimum white catujllics The South African Government has blamed thc ANC fur all the allacks Thc insurgent group refuses ia accept responsibility for ipeclftc oilickt and denies thai it has embarkedampaign directed ai civilian) raTaaaff
Eroding ANC Miliury Policy
Tbe ANC in recent years has gradujil) loeocned its targeting policy io meet Ihc demandt of ao iacnaung-ly impatient military wing aad an internal coruiitnca-ey. After ihe unrest thai beganome senior ANC official* began loojucsiion the efficacyolicy directed solely al mililnry and government urgcts when hondredt of blacks were being killed in Clashes with iccurny fotcci Military cadre andhip youihs also urged iheu slop up Operation* and opand the eaicgorict of targets In rcne-ise. thc ANC granted ihc miliury greaterfreedom, authorised urgcitwhile farmers who monitor ANC Inliliraluint wi be hi If of Ihe govern men i. and agreed mil to admonish uniu if civilians were harmed during auihurircil
Vrilfiil
I'I April
I Mila|i |
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!!
a Vie
Selected Homblng Incidents8
Inti,in uptownilway lino (atari timiH djmifi
lulunncihi.fi phnlon al C'li Mill cmiet
Ma.tr cumptri till.Swniuu
limin cm
1(inl.aU. Rn 'iHaMI- in,.rin. anr
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awwitny man4 auelPretoria, i- m -annul
J-pLju j- ihrtat-on
miH'eiMaet
lulu nnevVurf;h> -Ii Inir'.i* bin>rcl
Jiihuinohuifipliuinink
ll. innurW.hlie. ind
in|llll* *ilM
J<ih>nactbu<i. .nllnubia iyiltihi
l.iii.Tvnn.hiir. anrr
i hntiiii
r na
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!an eipnawan IA ihr arcwrrw kwwbrr
wSaf> miM- w
aaiajbuana
.-ikilt, itii imnm
k'm Im-IhbBi|u. i.
i-wit iihj im! mime- II
Recent dcvelopmeuti apparently have led lheeadership to give insurgents cen greater la lit woe in choosing Unceit Pretoria's rep*time measures ind
to comidci reformconvincedlacks ihai peaceful protest* alone will not force lhe government to negotiate.esult, militanti undoubtedly have pressed the ANC toore aggressive strategy. Furthermore, operational constraints such ai communication and logisticcontinue to preclude tight control of ANC members and township militants, especially hy eater-nally based leaders Some recent attacks, therefore, may have been tbc work of impatient military cadre ot township elements only loosely associated with the ANCaMPl
Despite the modification in ANC Urgetmgdeliberately hitting white crn-tsmontroversial topic among ANCenior ANC military official commentedecentthat the ANC musl increase urban atlacks to undermine white morale Such statements mayrowing rift between the ANCs military and political wingsreater insistency by military commanders on operational autonomy. Senior ANC leaders, however, remain reluctant to cedonc acampaign against white civilians ot allow the military freedom lo map cut military strategy.
Outlook
Thc recent spate of bombingi probably isirbraecr of an officially endorsed systemic ANC terrorist campaign.ramatic change in the rules of engagement probably would be rejected by senior ANC nflicitli and by moderate blackmside South Africa Ai the same time, however. ANC readers probably will not author nativelyattacks that endanger civilians even though such atlacks risk Wesierh condemnation and even harsher South African retaliation
ANC polilical leaden coniinue to have tofor more aggressive operations againstof beingerrorist organiialion.icaecrs!vp probably."ill allow periodicmilitary activity lo placate reaiivcbut ihey almost certainly would move to reinmutinous military wing ANC political andbowtvci. probably arc also reluctant tocases too sttongly lest Ihey riskANC officials recogniieplitmilitary and polilical wings over strategya serioushe ANCs much-toutedcould worsen tirataf divisions iu Southcommunity csautsVi
b3
Tbe Terrorism Diary for
Ieptember0
I%
1
September
}
4 J 9
31
l
$
0
2
ompendium af September dotei of known or comctlroblr titnttice to terroriit, around tbe world Our Inclusionate Or event should not by It-lelf be construed to rirfgril that tee expect orowuwernorotiue terroriit^ j
Writ Germany, Europe. Antiwar Day (anniversary of Nazi Invaaion ofthiopia. Eritreaaa begin arnaed unigjlc. Libya Coup cwerthrows monarchy.
Paletilniant. During Uiii month, the Jordanian Army drove lhe Pakalinian guerrilla* out of the countiy because (hey would not atop mucking Israel from Jordanian soil; in response, the largest group. Fatah, established tbe coven Black September organiialion. bestfor iu attack on the Israeli athletes at2 Olympics
Libya. Oil companies nationalized
Ctatral African Bepubtic Coup brings Kolingba regime to power. South Africa. Settlers' Day. rietaam. Independence Day. Be Ilium. Liberation Day
Vietnam. Death of Ho Chi
freer. Independence Day.
"v.
fens. Death of Scndero Lemuwso leader Fdrth Lagos Chile. Election of President Salvador Allende. Iran. Iran. Date Iraq charges Iran suited war. Senegal. Declaration of republic.
"Kerr Germany. Europe. Munich Olympics massacre Black Septemberkillssraelis; IW Arab terroristsest German policeman also die
Saudi Arabia. Palestinians seize Saudi Embassy in Paris.
L3
$
*
6eptember m$
a September$
4
%
September
II1
%
4
Sepeeomber mi
September Ull IS1
I
Israel. El Al planewith rockei by Palestinian* In Rome.
Unitedet, Egypt. lk(inrJng of Cimp David meetings.
Palettimans Beginning of four-day multiple atrlloe hitacking by PFLP: US plane destroyed inecond US plane, Swissair DC-I. and Brilisbll Cairoy-ed in Ionian; attempted hiatci-.ru of El Al plane
Smatllaad. Independence Day.
Brazil. Independence Day.
Lithaaataa SSR. National Day (beg inning of independence from Russia during period between world want
Imdia. Death of Shaykh Mohammad Abdullah, the "Uon of Kaihrrur.-
BuJgaria. Liberation Day (natioaa! das*
A/arra Korea. National Day.
Ckl-a. Death of Mao Zadoog.
Belize. National Day (Battle of St. George's Bay).
Tarkry. Founding of Turkish Communist Party.
Guinea-Btisam. Republic Day (indcpcnder.ee from Portugal!
ElKidnaping of President Dearie's daughter by leftist guerrillas.
Pkilippintt. Birthday of former President Ferdinand Marcos.
Ethiopia. Return of Eritrea from Italian and British control under UN resolution.
Chile. Anniversary ofrihrowing Allende by miliiary junU led by Auguslo Pinochet.
Ethiopia. National Day (commemorates overthrow ef Hade Selassie).
Lebamoa. Assassination of Phalangist leader aad Lebaneselect Basbir Gemayel.
Casta Rica, El Salvador, Gmalemala. Hon dor as. Nicaragua. Indepeadenee Day. Lebanon. Israeli Invasion of Muslim West Beirut
01
3
8
*
2
8
0
3
0
4
421
af
$
0
71
4
9
44
Independence Day.
Japan. Toho Intersection incident (ihree police officer* killed,emow(ratori srresied).
Papxa Nest Guinea. Independence Day.
Unittdani. Egypt. Signing of Camp David Accords.
a ere in Shaiila and Sabra refine*cplemberlakes iu name from Ihb event).
Sot/lb Korea. Olympic fames open in Seoul (continuectober) Chile. Independence Day.
Si. Christopher andNtrls. Independence Day.
Iran, Iraq. Uiually recogniied dale of outbreakan-Iraq war.
Lebanon. Bombing of US Embassy Annex.
Malia. Irrdependence Day.
Philippines. Martial law csublisbed.
Be list. Independence Day.
Philippines. Milllia diiperses demonitralors in Escalante, killingdobbed "Escalantc massacre" by opposition).
Mall. Independence Day (proclamation of republic).
New Zealand. Dominion
Saudi Arabia. Unification of the Kingdom.
Saudi Arabia. National Day.
Ghana. Inauguration of Third Republic.
Mozambique. Revolution Day.
Egypt, Jordan. Resumption of diplomatic relations.
21
t
Chronology offfj)
Below err described noteworthyforript end Imematianal eventsterrorisii or lit* use of terrorist tonics. These events have occurred or come to light since our lost Issue. In some cases, perpetrators end their motivations may newtnowri. Events and developments thai have alreadebetn described tliewhere In this publication art noi la. luded rjpjy *j j
" 3Caledaaiat Bomb ttplode, i. car of Kaaah Notional Uheretiam Feemt
atfieial oattide Us haamt la Naemem. Aa aaeaown groop -CNCT claimed -rejportiibility for tbc attackll lo lhe gewerruntni
ewrmy (NPA) members ihaat pad killersons ia Ceb* City,armer and kit three children 3
"Gurkha Natlaaal Uberatlea'tramt (GNLP) metnaert open fir* aad karl
bombs at poller tamo In Writ Bengal. The la .Red lhe icene whenflft /, 3
ay
Terrorists hill three persons.ammaaitt Parry leader, la
irparatr Incident! In tne Punjab. Nciuirdfj ?
27Gorman ciiium Is target la attempted bombiag by Iranian group
-GuardiansTbc men end hit company "ere iccoioJ ol otmg ihe power behind ibe Iraq,rocket pro)onA 3
7Africa: Limpet mime otplodes at Soweto train iiaiiom moor Johamoeibart.
caaiing no Injuries. Policeeeond bomb found on the tame railway. There were no claim* of
9Et plosion ocean at private residence ia Lusaka, causing tttseasloe
damage. The bomb, apparently meant for tbc African National Congrenhome acit door, maybeen placed byAfrican a
n jntj im
SyrU: Irmnimm fa arretted elro tranipori
exploiiwiurkishen wai scheduled to inspect lhe nation an hour
Chile aWmi pmblie Mrleaaiage,
mtmage. Inseparate inodcnt in Lota, unknown person,kilogram ammonium celitn.tr. bomb. Almotlne-hour blackout occurred afte. chaini were thrown over power
Sorer. AfiU* Fear elocL, Urn* Rmbeem I, land prisonaraimg Urn, wewce, fmt teyreriim. TV relcaatd prisoners served IJ yean (or sabotage and furthering tbe goal, of tbe ANC They are the tut of ai* ANC memberi convicted3 to leave prison fft J) J
ae, Armed asteilaa, iWs and iajurrt Emabau, coaurmct guard mi Pratteedaaawtrri im Manila. The motive for tbc ITuck ri unknown, and no one haa claimed rraponsibililya^ j, }
Chile: Three bombi tiplodr Im Santiago area. The moat icrioui damage occurredank branchrovidePCii District There were ao casualties and no claim, of reaporasibilnyj^
India: Twoexplode limuliasteeait, miiuirrueiiom mm Coldem WraWlriar la the Punjab, hillimgrrion, modikk miliunit ere believed reaponiible *J
Argentlnm: Bomb explodei mi high-rite bmlldliu im Cordoba, emmsimgdamage. No groupaff bJ
VtU.uaIm mawimg erner aaiiruiy reetoria La Cittrrna area af Saniiato, eaaslag mat infer, and miner demegr. The bomb was composed oframs of ammonium
Chile: Ihr armed brent* af ike Veiled Populmr Art ion Moaemeni Holme rnaomaiailletfer asiath an doorkeeper at metrepotiien muiorutr. Three urueketi-Serf persons shot the guard in ihe backoving fmfjr^
Penr. In lluaneareliea Department, Sendero laminate (SLj urrorim atiatk Ckuileia Chlee, kllllageaiaalt and -mending Two others. The assailants kidnaped four peasants before leaving Ihe lown m0 J
Ethiopia: Alleged Ethiopianr> Party member, kidnap Italian eugineer amal lame Ethiopian naff member!anilrmctian lite of too Taaa Ballet aid ara/eci. The troop nil! KMt two other lulun lechaiciaDi abducted in Scomber gj*f
oi let mrett member oledngaei Patrietie Iroot far kit
iawtetawwalotleek aa lapamese Khool ia Santiago tarn, killed three aertont.
The icrroriii reportedly alio confesaeelio bombmi railroad tracks and power pylons, and armed robbery
Colombia: National Liberation Army (ELN) gaerrlllat bomb Cemo Llmea-
Corona, pipeline In Buonaelua ana' Norte de Saatamder Dtpanotetas, fa
lag pamplag operations. The eaploiionsarge lots of?
Colombia: ELN guerrillas assasiiaatr President of Bncaramanga Chamberta Santaoder Department. The gortrement oBSoal -It murderedio
Sal radon Membertrt front group for ihe ferebunaa Mont National Liberation Front guerrilla* attack twotrarellag neat San Saimdor. After removing passengers, the terrorist* butned the bus and truck, leavingattributing the assault to recent arrau -id asaauinatiens of tu members by security
Watt Bank: Firebomb attack monad, female pattenge, aboard ba, corryia, Arab worken to Itrael. The but was also damagedJffjT fj
South Africa. Vmhnmoa persons fire thotgamt National Parry office Imember of Parliament cjairett he receired death Ibreau from both lefl-ond righlwing catrcro.su fgf3
Yemea Arab Be public, la Sanaa, member, af Mntlim brotherhood eitattlaale candidate running for election io Parliataeat. Authorlticajiarc preventedmember, from participating in ihc electeatsfttsu*3
Chile: Sit bombiag iaeidemt, occur at book beajwket la Santiago, cautlag teriomt Mewerncnt of Ihc Rcoialiowary Lcfi (MIRl claimed reahirty
Chile: Bom* ttpJodet at bank broach la Cepiape. north ef Santiago, comilag tome damage. The device was composedrams of ammonium nitrate fuel-oil blasting agent aujjt ^ 0,
afgsuatt
Egypt: Vnkno-ra msrmllmmr. In car ikrvw hmmdgrrmode ml Ktrwalri, prAfcfe Im Al M. haiighborkood of Cairo. It il not known whether thc Kmb^iot wu in the car al lhe lime of ihc incident; no caiualliea were reported.
fin TW SI memtrri. denied in pegging attire, asrasilnttt the mayor of Pmmo as hell leaving Ail rnidmc* and wniacce,tfultyilt mil cJmmffeme. Tba vie-tim had becDmember of (he ruling American Popular Revolutionary Alliance
Ammala Eiplmlsm oeemvi omllld* Aagmlan airline office in Lmando, killing mm perrons aad Imjarimt rrwm/tncitli claim reapocm'Wiiy for tbe blast belong, u, members of UN
Colombia: In Smere Drpartmeat, aaeaaaVri of ELN bomb matarml gar Mm/imrkr San Oao/rr am am/ag feeoasiderabl*i 3
mr rigged withilograms af TNT explode, oastlde mail, ikeenrr Syria* /atetllgemce niadaaarteri In Wen Belna,.
) Hal,
ndheavy property damage. No group has claimedityi 3
J^aWau Carf*ilograms of TNT explode. In froa, of afacing Syrian ckexkpolnl In Ik* Bckaa Valley. Twelve peraons-
injured, and tbe restaurant ww demollafaed. No group claimed
Ubanoat Apyvoslmateiyilogram, of tiplerire, are diicorered la ike Mae Ellas neighborhood of West Be inn camera led la ,h*f* ear. TW charge wai defusedlnutea before It waa act to
Pent: Daring rimmttaaeoms arracks, member, of tha Tmpmc Amarm Rerelailoaary Movemvaa (MKTA) mom* them* go* ntaimms Im Lima. One terror in waa kiUad aadrxc dariag thc aaaauli. iacTaaea hi fuel
CaJembia: Smtpoeted ELM gaerrltlas bomb track rraveliag near Yarima, Saaiam-der Department, killing fire civilians mmd lajmrlng two other, jgfj^
Oman: Saltan decree, Omanl meeenlen io International Convention Against ike Taking
mii SIKIAwoanding three
Seea*^
*rrnt; la lea Depottmiat. two tat proud membett ofSL tkoot aad killf Cktacta Province iafroat of hit reildemce. Tbcchool priisctpeJ, bid been threatened nnd asked lo resign because his school had not supported Ibe national teachers' strike, iff k> j
Cotomkia: Approximolrlyomatri* April Movement, armed toiikad aalomatic weep oat, attack La Sierra, Caaca Deportment, killing two policemen. Sii auerrillas were killed and acvcral buildings destroyed during the assault.
m
Original document.
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