NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 28 MAY 1988

Created: 5/28/1988

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

National Intelligence Daily

Saturday8

arning Page

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orbachev'a US Policy

The theses or guidelines tor next month's specla Conferencetrong endorsement ot Gei -hev's epproach to Soviet notional neurit particularlyl'.ng ot summitry wlm the Ui

The theses released'on Thursday criticizeoe subleciive attitudes" in Soviet foreign policy, saying emphasis on military competition had resultndjn the "lured into Brr arms race" Mat alowed domoatic'prot, lor international security to be maintained by pott.cai rat'l military meant and add that progress towardtaff increased .'prospects tor reducng the miliary Ot-raerr" ft to .the theses, there hasefinite improvementelations symbolized by ihe'summit meetings, addingreakthroughs occurred at Geneva and Reykjavik, espec' latter. They caution, however, ihat the USSR ra notmiitanst dangc that lurks in the essence of lavMrtausm "

dorseme' io demon

The ontnusiastic US relations appears intense backing at the summit and tl consensus behind tne summ Reykjavik meetinghere were clear indications

including "ScconO Secretary Ligachev. had criticizedo'that

Tho tfiosos are the most clear-cuf approval yel by theGorbachev's elf o* Is to use'arms control andeans to 'educe defense spending The reference to triedanger posed by capitalism, however, suggests thatol the threat Irom tho went is still being debated,previouslyomewhat more benign viewlgm overcomolts "militaristic" nalure. Bythe foreign policies o' former General Secretaryeating ro- "new thinking" freed fromstt*Soviets clearlytroader publicsome ol the basicorenv-wv, that have determined Sovietme. West)

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resident Al'anstn wilt almost certainly SCO* Op, relief and hew lending when he visits the US nest wnek ajkjjSjk

Aienougn Aitonsln will address me UN Genoa) Assembly'slmlnn

f OCuS Ol

"dreamed

return. ATtonsirilisJtkBTytg ask.for tower Interest rotes and Signillcani new landing. At least one major Bank Isinreatcnlng no! loew laimonth loanillion unless Argentinaits exchange 'flic* and expands its debt-capitalization -programjfJpBTj

.eds.massrveas*laiariccPec*use ot Ils bleak financial. situation. Last year's lrefle_surplua droppedillion downm

(Buenos Aires may nave missed us IMFtargets forwould prevent tne;'dlsbursemenl of funds from'the'lMF end banks thatslated fot this month asaaaaTaaSsaTf. u

"

o-i'.r

h is

intlalion wasercent nt lor lhe entire yoar: economic

may exce* stag nam.

_Buenos Aires apparently has abandoned its goal ol Culling 'ludget delicti as much as it had promised the IMI

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Mtonsln has been unable lo folftw up free market rhet enough action io stem lhc ebbing confidence ol Ihe Argemirublic and the bankers. His new plan probably will fall far he needed austerity and

reforms and is unlikely to allay bankers'

concerns. Lack oflorce at least som6 banks lo *top trsating thcjrfigreet due on Argentina's loans as Income late' next month, allhough an ofllcial debt moratorium Is unilkcTyafllb

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of Syrian Deployments

o eiect term* of the agreement leading to Syria's entt, ,oio Beirut* southern suburb* yesterday remeinhe As sod regime apperenUy intends to eioand it*ll oi tne suburbs.j

lan stipulates urvesinctec utual return of capturedsed only for political

Seven! hundred Syrian troops peacefully entered some areas ol the southern Suburbs yeslerday, proclaiming that the war thera Is over they -il* comjpjete their deployment

The eg-eemeni between Sr-ia endSyrian movement in the suburbsizballah and Amal Offices that are. to _

puroosas. Hizballah will knep its military positions aiongThe Green- -Line, according lo_ptess reoorts.possibly including akrv barracks In

. s: priories are to Stop theurther losses by risAmai ally, and restore Syrian credibility as the preeminent power In Lebanon. President Assad almost coriainly hopes to use Ihe presence ol his troops to constrain Hizballah's -freedom of maneuver and to increase Syrian leverage on the radcal Shra Assad will move gradually, however, to avoid violent easshaa win Hizballah and ioeriousis relations wnh Iran.

r

Damascus would need substantially more troops than It has commllied so far lo control all of the suburbs affectively. If Syrian forces attempt to impose restrictions on Hizballah or to strongmen Amai's posilion. the livelihood ol violent clashes between Syrian troops and the radical Srwa win increase As long as HrzbaHahams ns positions on the Oreen Una and keeps open ita newtv estab .shoo supply line from ihe anti.Syr.an Christian Lebanese ja^ltjlilty to rein in the radical Shia willjje limited.

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Taeticol Offer cl Reeonciliat

feeder Qodholl'tn of tho govemmont ol PiOnOont Habro ond itotemcnit oiprnimp intorett In 0 .. pooeotut seitrcmeni with N'D,otnon&da not change Tripoli'*

Qadhafi made hm announcomenl this vreekoer-on markingnniversary of tho founding,o: lhe Organization ofrWry He Mid he was willing to meei with Mabre and Chadianeader Gouaourii In Trpo* in anto bringations

recoriclfialion. Qadhafi offo'ed'a" Libyan Marshall Plan" loar-damaged towns in nortnern Chad and announced thatould not again intervene inostscript, heesurapilon of Libya's relations withiberia. Zaire Mauritius, Gabon. Senegal The Gnmbtu.vor, C( AaMtsW

assB^Beaasaeaa Qadnel.'s announcementublic relation atone the moral high ground and to.defied criticism al thethis week. His recognition of Habre. although not Inpo-'itcathad, the gesturetittle. On tne conj issues of ao*ereignty ovet theStrip and ihe participation of Libyan-backed GoukouniChadian Government. Qadhan conceded nothing,i-ghialiortaleibyanall ol

The OAUto resowe ihtfbpfOar dispute at us summit, but Qadhafi's offer to meet with HabTo and Goukounina with OAU sentimentolitical solution'to the conflict ovar the Aniou Strip, making it easier for Tripoh to reajsLsttorts to submit thed-spute to tha International Coutt oi3ust.cn

Habra, while welcoming Libyan recognition, remains suspicious and has not committed Chad to any course ol actionis Libya. The Libyan announcement haa put him on the defensive, and ho win. probably respond by restating his demand that LlbyanirogiiS leave the Awou Stripettlement can be reached

Qadnafi's assertionestoration ol diplomatic rotations with the eight African countries likewise puts political pressure on them to accept Libyan dipk>fnstic mcisions, but It rs uncertain wneine* may willr^the^^yi^enya already has denied that it wiU do so.

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PAKISTAN: President ZUTTfaveling to Chim

ill arrive in Beijing _fv1ondey >C" avisAJii.slU'JUJ^.Giilna

__ ie talks will locus on

Put will aiso>cover the US-Soviet armscohtrol negotiations.

China's relations with the US. India, and the USSRMl i, m

aataasWzia will not be Shopping lor military .equipment bjt will ' J>

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about the prospects lor upgrading Chinese-made'aircraft with US-made avionics. Pakistan also hopes to reduce the bllaicrgi traofl delicti, which has already2 million this year,mr

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Pakistan considers China its most reliable ally. This trip

marks Zla's flrsl opportunity to confer with China's new President and Prime Mlntster.-He probably wants lo ensure that ihe twogree on strategy relating to Afghanistan alter Ihe Soviet withdrawal and lo compare assessments of US. Soviet, and .infljaMelaiIons wiih China jn3 Pal-iMa fJWpJfMJ^

willingness lo provide lurj.hgr assislancg Ic-Pakisian's

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In Duel

Initial Soviet commentary on President Reagan's speech

iicqL,sed President olclaimed Sovier-ar'c-iea xcr..k;

yesterday showed Irritation about human righisASS

or COOpCfBIivn*

mcomes o' mem Supreme Soviet.

Swissechnical data or Soviettn rjasTtwo years

hoiy donate helo up new Soviet law

ant agreedower, tax raise on

inkeparture tor

attache 'or efforts to collect naments, aeronauticsvrrtrertand for industrial espionage

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to US fC

- Sal vadoran. President Quarts suffering from gastric ulcers whn

biepdirvg. accordln its

) :

Uruguay asking Cubaocall ombasr-odorirtmlcrnalhreaienlng lormal ouster ifHavanato accede as Montevideo pledges tobid to join UN human flights^

Electton/omorrow In Catatonia seen as harbinger ofational elecUon. withinatalan nationalists should Incrtiase majorityocialists of Prime Minister Gomalet lixetyondrivalgest lose- attesw .

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Analysis

Antinucleer Lobby

An ec'lrebhy" seems ro be aalninoIn fie USSR. It It, loosely organized arte' geographically dispersed bur has successfully challenged ine nuclear power program, causing deleft or actual cutbackslant construction. The lobby haa a'ao provoked what promises torotracted struggle between acuacaUi and critics of nucteai anafg, fjfjgi

'13)

* 4 _ia . .

Slncoressure from inside and oulelde lhe Souclear Induilry has led lo lhe conceilallon or suspension of0 percent Ol Ihe USSR's nuclear power plant capacity scheduled to be but! by thenprecedented criticismne industry is notrisis. Mew capacity has grownercent Since the accident at Chernobyl'the Ukraine iniectrioily output from nuclear powerrowing, arid.critics have not shut down any operating nuclear power

ptantSettVf.

The Industry's managers, however, are on the defensive!ontinued opposition would handicap the planning and construction ol pro}ects for. Currently, thc critics have focused Iheir etforu onng constructed near major ones, eanhquefce-Drone areas^ reservoirs, and. heatmg plani* The situation would gel worsendustry ifere io broadenttacks IO include other plants on the drawing board and plants now operating. Someddilional projects seem particularly vulnerable to criticism on grounds of safety and location; they consiliumercent ol operating capacily andercent ol the prolecia scheduled to be built by tne0 aaTaaaaaW.

Pubac Opposition to nuclear energy ts emerging in several areas ol the country?Spurred by the ChernobyT accident, an anunucwar lobby coalesced first in die Ukraine, where it pressed authorities to tan the construction of several projects and continues to seek limits on the expansion of nuclear energy in the republic. Opponents have also had successes elsewhere, and plans lor power, planls in Armenia. Dolcussia. and Lithuania as well as jn_ par In of the Russian Republic hava beenbacka'dedJjJfa*

These critics have cccdrfie increasingly vocal underparticularly in Idea: and culturalhavemio informal, unofficial coeabono representing partyand sckwilHic Institutions, and tne community at

continued

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USSR: Key Elements In the Nuclear Energy Debate

overall energy balance wet antlnuctear argument* II energy suppl resistance.

The >ofj' de.Ti.inr'.

won ji any &

a he moi

lOrtiiQC l(

IO yelC IO

to stiffen

level of natlo plants are locate*

orhonts who maoe rnmi^uwo ignca. tt nationalist unrest esca'sies. however, the regime wti mooerates like most of those In tho antlnuoear movement.

General Secretary Gorbachevs efforts to restructure and democratize the party and Photic life wet also have an Indlroct. but vital, bearing on the outcome Reforms thatarty and government structure more responsive to public demand would undercut unofficial MbByTPg groups, if conservatives block reform, .however, those who OStrust the cntcs Such as managers in the nuclear Industry and local Off.ciats. w* be encouraged to reaasr Oemanos from tne antinuctear groups.

Whoattle lor powor now In progress among the various bureaucracies in tha nuciear program will affect the nuclear Industry. If itioso responsible for assuring safety gain Influence andCommriiee for Nuclear Safety lorcritics will probablyore sympathetic hearing.

The industry's safety record wmacte- Technical analysis indicates tnat meajorieactors is much greateromparablehe .nOustry .rrp-oves safety by taking steps thes consider necessary opposition win ropiO'y decline. Nonetheless, another major accident orattern of gross safoty violations wouid^ring the criiics increased support, perhaps even prompting Industry expertsoin untinuclear groups.

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struggle between advocates and critics ol nuclear energy <sdrag on lor tne next few years and may grow ll the atmosphere ofcontinue* unabated. The course of tne debate will beby sevorai interieiaterj laciors

stdoilny of >neveran energy, specifically whether suDC-ly wii meet domestic demand and export commitments

The regime's aens-tv against nuclear proM

status of efforts

struggles In the nuclear

industry'sabHrty to impfove its ctad*biiriy on safely -entO'cr^oittABB^sasw,

In the current political and economlesituallon, the regime Is'Ilkelyursues policy ot compromise between the critics and theoscow already appearslobe moving in this direction byhe moat sensitive or controversial prefects wMM trying to improve" satiety andaintain an over as commitment to nuclear power *

tew operaling plants are likely to be dosedoing so wouldyriad of problems in Moscow's short- and long-term energy plans and raise questions about the reactors tne USSR"has delivered to ItsndV_

- .

A Jorcelul crackdown on the criticsllarty would fly In the lace of gtasnasi and strengths wailopposition. IssffssW

The controversy over nuclear power win influence dec Vary period Of energy policy making.5 the eflec already canceled will be fen making the emerge replacement projects necessary. Moreover, doct next tew years will oa critical for nuclear power Ii beyond. Energy planners are now framing the na and will need high-level guidance on allocat ons construction and safety imprt on fossa fuels and conservat.

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