NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 19 MAY 1988

Created: 5/19/1988

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Signals Mixed on Syrian Military Intentions

Syria continues to delay moving Intotouttiem suburbs, otlenslbly to allow Iran time to coax Hizballah Into. stsSBS*Jk>

Damas<*Jjs la sending mixed signalsfilary Mentions Syrian Defense Minister Talas visited Beirut yesterday and said Syrian troops win crier tne city's southern suburbs sooner or later Damascus alsoall by Its Lebanese allies lor Syrian intervention Into Hie suburbs and over the weekend burtt up III military presence on the fringes of Ihe suburb aassteaa-

On Ihe other hand, no addlilonal troops have arrived this week, repeated public Syrian deadlines have passed, and President Assad has postponed Iniorvenllon al Tehran's request at leant once. Syria a not harassing Hizballah elements In the Syrian-occupied Bekaa Valley nor Interdicting arms supplies lo the suburbs, both of aMA

military assault on theas not rude sdodston. ano"

military hardliners and those who prefer

Despompromls< peacekeeping foi will Interveneries to expand o

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Damassus seems to be lookingoken deploy ma nt of Syrian Shie stronghold. Syria probably jsort If. forizballah

wants toootiymirrtary Showdown with Hizballah. He stltl views the radical Shiaseful tool against ivam, and he does not want toroup that he sees as potentially threatening his goals In Lebanon. Moreover, ne wants to preserve Syria's "sirsieglc alienee" with Iran

The hostagesesser consideration for Assadie military cost of Intervention and the Iranian factor. The Syrians almost certainly do not have good Intelligence on the hostages' locations, and ihey apparently have not trained their forces to carryoslaqe.rescuo missionensely crowded uiban environment

m: Per Capiaiii.

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Van) mcsjsei

Hanoi Claiming Severe Food Problems

K/eii tiling economy laces dltllculty growing and distributing enough food, but Hanoi may be exaggerating Its needs to help break down the ASIAN-US embargo on lorelgn aid.

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Hanoi claims baa weatner. Insects, and even itsoncetved poSeles havn loft Vietnam unableeed Itsetl. In the past several years, population growth has outstripped lood production'. lor example, grain productionercent6 mwllon tona.-while the Dooulatio*flrow by nearly6 mllllor

tnameso Ols navo oppt moro anj(lous recently, toning international agencins earlier this monthillion people Inorthern Vietnamese provinces are, "near slervalion" and willotalons of rice lo survive until the current crop Is harvested In the next two or tnree months^

5 ot'CcsariCds

snvare as Hanoi clal-na, and Vietnam probably is trying to persuade potential donors to Increase ua* amounts of aid ana speed deirve-ies Some northern provinces may be lacing uruSusay aenous shortfaBs that Hanoi n> unable or unwilling to meet by purchasing and transporting lood Irom the south. Vietnamese reports of deaths from starvation are extraordinarily nigh, unconfirmed, and suspect. Hanoi apparently hasaTupe no efforts at national moii.iiraiion to meet such

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The food shortage may strengthen relorm advocates within Ihc government. Hanoi recently dismissed three viceari because ol poor performance on agricultural rolcvms. Tha lack of Soviet response will probably Increase Hanoi's determination to seek ancMryeduce Its dependence on Mo

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Ethnic Discontent Brewing

Or owing resentment in Chad ot President Hebre'softentribesmen suggests that ethnic frictions ere reemerglng as Ihe notional euphoria oyer lest year's military victories against Llbys subsides JeawmnSr

athntc tensions have Increased over reports Tat Toubou soldiers-^allegedly members ol the elite Presidentialmerchants and hilled several cMHans In the capital earlier this monti.ddition, mai iy Chadians afJ^sHsBslVbr-lieve Toubou securitxlprces were responsible for the recent deathon-Toubou who wasilitary adviser to Mac-re. etsJeTe*

Tensions between the northern-based Toubous and other Chadian groups, particularly southerners, have long been the chief cause ot domestic turmoil,he popularity of the war against Libya and Habre's efforts to build national unity have kept these antagonisms from boiling over Into serious conflict. Public resentment of the Toubous' dominance of the mililary and security forces and of their frequent harassment of other groups, however, continues to spar* snfaTI ciiisftes^ffJassa? .b'?

fassSsBBBBSSB'Hfibre SHU enjoys widespread popuierityesult of last year's political and military successes, ond the Incrcaso In ethnic tension In theII It leads to widerlittle threat to his rule. Nevertheless, lhe reemergence of these antagonisms, tegether with intensifying Libyan efforts to reactivate Chadian lebel forces, could further weaken the snaky alleptence of former opponents who have rallied to Ihe government and prompt defections of non-Toubous from thc Army. To minimize those risks. Mabre probably will try to rein in the Toubous and. as In the past, may punish tho worst olfcndrr.' b

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Top Secret

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INDIA: Sikh Militants Surrender

Most Sikh milllanis holding oul in tho Golden Temple surrendered yesterday alter Indian paramilitary forces took control ut additional buildings at |pe compound. According to press reports, the remainder committed suicide or were shot trying to escape during the surrender.

government's success In endingday siege without storming the holiest buildings may limit lha additional alienation among Sikhs. New Deini will emphasize Its forces' painstaking efforts to lay siege to the temple complex rather than desuoy the holy areas occupied by the rrdltants. An operation4 touched off widespread protests and rioting because tanks entered the compound and troops damaged holy buildings. Paramilitary forces probably will occupy lhc temple-Jor several daysagarching lor explosives and aimsJ(BeskiH MtHlaay !'

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SUDAN: Abu Nidal Organiialion Implicated in Attack-Two suspects arrosied In connection with an attack against the British Sudan Club In Khartoum last Sunday claim lo hovo carried out tho operation on behalf of tho Abu NldaJhird suspect arrested In conned Ion with an attack the some nightotel mi KhartAom claims loember of an unidentified Fatah orgomTalion In separate Inter rogations, all Pi'CO Individuals said they were recruited ai Beirul end sent lo Sudan so attack US and British taroeis Tl* two Incidents occurred about an hour apart, klHed seven, and Injured more thangfftW '. ;

O probably carried out both operations. Trie laciica and Ihe choice ol targets are similar to tlioso Ihe ANO has used before. This was Ihe group's first operation In Sudan. Il and previous operadons In South Asia suggest ttw group may have shifted Its focua from Western Europe, at least temporarily. Felon's Involvement In an attack at the same time and place oa one by the ANOMWWiMMa^^

exist

because Tripoli Is now the ANO'a primary mops or and Cteerfydomr. attacks on such tatgrls. taaaaoBaBBBBBaeBBBaW

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In Brief

Iranian speodooats allocked lankcr In Pe'slan Gull yesterday. ,V>

Irst retaliation lor eight recent Iraqiore Iranian attacks

Soviet Azerbaijan party leaders appealed tor calm alter now protests In Baku Tuesday, violent ethnic clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia lastetublic cdmission ol tense situation shows grave cor>cernV*

In broadcast Monday, Sudanese rebel leader John Garang denounced Prime Minister Sadlq al-Mehdl's new Cabinet as sectarian, government ot nationalledged to keep, fighting slamic taw is key cbsi^cie to settlemer'

Ecuadorian President-elect Borja discussing foreign minister post with UN Afghan mediator Diegoresages more active foreignorja to reestablish ties to Nicaragua, seek admission to Latin Group of EigN*9mmm ^3

IS

Analysis

Threat* to Seoul Olympics

public throats against tho Seoul Olympics and Its sabotageouth Korean airliner last November Indicate that North Korea Is probably the greatest challenge to the security Ot the games. Several non-Korean ^groups might also stage terrorist Incident! In SeouhssssssafeV":

Norlh Korea's decadeslong record of Intermittent violence against the South and itstnoffective opposition to the venue of the games suggest tho danger it poses is high. The North Koroans have repeatedly denounced Seoul's hosting of tho gamesymbol of permanent division of the Korean peninsula and may hope to spoil the South's moment of glory. The surviving terrorist involved In the bombing ofast year claimed that aciion was aimed againat the Olympics, which suggests it may have been tho firsteries ot hjc^cnts^lanned to frighten tourists and athletes away from Seoul.

The North has several options for disrupting the games, including

ould Infiltrate agents Into South Korea by sea. use Ils existing agent network In the South to carry out terrorist Incidents, or It may provoke military clashes at the

0MZ- Gstiae*

Threat From Third-Country Groups

terrorist, who was thoughtas arrested last week In Tokyo.

Another suspect od JapnJ^orth Korea

the Palestinian groups, Ihe Abu Nidal organization Is probablyeffective and has the strongest motivation to target Ihehi addition, groups supported by Iron might useombing or hostage-taking operation against US.cr other Arab targets. MB

continued

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Seoul's Security Response

South Korea Is taking extensive precautions. Military and police units will be positioned at Olympic sites, and security will be tight at ail holds and the airport. Seoul will augment military lorces along the DMZ or South Korea's coastlines. Airlines with regular flights to Seoul and co*mercta! charierthose originating In or transiting Third World airports thai lack sophisticatedjInei^uii&rn empox- ihc weakest security imk faaajaja^ 3

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