NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 12 MAY 1988

Created: 5/12/1988

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fiebolllon Fall!

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Oefeme Minister Gremex> said publcfy the rebethor, was provoked by members of rtflhlwrng polihca; partial anathat an Investigation was undor way to identify all conspirators.

rebellion was poorly planned and lacked ihoorjiioi of key command positions in the capital "

tnese croups have active* tried tocoup over_ihc_Pnt yea/ and have pubiicy caUed for(3)

Although the crisis Is over (or now. further coup plotting willbecause of tho so-loua discontent In the military overreform policial, hla apparent wUlmgnaas to talk wllhinsurgenli. and hla efforts to restore relations withBloc Gremejo probably wHl demote or remove theIf he does no: distance himseil (romhowever.a'Qet for replacement,piac* lncrwing pressure on the miHtary leadershipsomeone who witjpoi, after the

Mizbnl.ah Victorlee In Uoirut

la consolidating gains againsi lit rival ShiaIn lha southern luburbi pt Beirut, white Amal tiesIn south Lebanon

jHizballah repelled en Ama.

uburbs, captured Amal's hesOQ.ariers if lha Uui, ai-Ba-awnan neighborhood, and Increased iu hot} on other areas

may be spreadin coaslai road.'

su&wrbs.^BHat/flMBLIf/aTafMHUbai'ah may have received erlHery support from lhe Palestinian

Press reports indicate the lighting ward out oTthe southern suburbs toward the

In aouth Lebanon, Amal arrestedizballah members in Tyre and An Nabatiyah and expelledsenior Hizballah rollg.ousn Tuesday, according to ivnm proii I

There have been no signs that Syrian forces are prepanng tosouthern suburbs In force, despite the continuing barragethreats. Accord.ng to Ihe press. Gen Ghazi Kenan, headmilitary Intelligence In Lebanon, said yesterday that Syriacompelled to enter tne southern suburbs ana end thoreportedly compared the current situation In southernyria's entry Into West Beirut In

nashe souinerr suburbs an nn-ortborftoods. in desperai MUroaiiar. elements In soutn tne Syrians to move againsi againat its stronghold 'n (Ja hope that their threatsonfrontation with Mlzbaiiar

a Tea the upc-er hand over Amatrrve Its rival Out ofrobabV win cont nuti figntlng and may attempt ton tne Bakes Valley, particularly yrlan leaders almost certainly (hting andirect

tcso

PM:lIPP,NES: Aquino Weig't* in on

wim in for tne fit

ral Philip pine ma, thatould restrict Itary bases inn the bases issue Hive on foreign whieh protects the storage or transit of nuclear weapons as wail as visits by nueleer-pflweredtear-capableAquino gave thelOjSDecillcand did not indicate her position on thc Ml.

hava to casesrole the ire review began last month.

The central problem for Aquuio. Foreign SecretoryCOief negotiator on the bases-ana the PnBpp.no Senate is agreanguclear policy that Is both consistent with the constan on nudeer waaDQns and explicable to the Philippine public Although Aquino's comments to tho senators ere unlikely to prevent the bill's sponsors from pressing forward, the version emerging from the Senate la likely to be watered down and may notirect threat to the viability of tha bases. In exchange for less stringent anilnuclear legislation. Aquino and Mangiapus will the senators moreic orgci-3

ng since

Top SjjffT

In Brief

No casualties, minimal damage from rocket atrao. Tuesday anin North Vaman

'] not fulfill

- Quej Incrc

-at itruc' Pari/1probablylral known Ult

contractons of Argentine wheat lor lack ol fund* portends continued ausierlty In (ran afjMb

eline last Friday so Insurgentsamage may pros age

* replace four orgovernment under economic problem:

resident Oarcia IkeJy to a. Including Prime. lellectlveness against insurgents.

yesterday announced start of trial of more thar.hargeO I- February ethnic riots In Sumgait In whichcknowieogea kiltedrial will further eievsto tensions ifide perceives lustlce noi served. aMB^

Senegalese leftist opposition leaderen mspended sentence for tnstigafng illegal assembly after February ejection easy treatment mty hslp defuse tensions inresident Dtouf ntlll laces vcfailio students, economic problems.

African Forgign Minister Boiha yesterday sard Cuban troop buildup in southern Angola increasing tensions In first pubix ackn^edgrnent of max* Cuban-Aneolan presence nearf

soldiers recently tired on boat full oform refugees, kllfinp one, wounding anotherirst such Incident9 Indonesians reiupplied boat, pushod it of to Malayaia^

decaying planting in key Chlneie farmffionin advecaung more irrigation, fertilizeroor ouliook foresriy harvest Hkeiy to increase demand fcr US whoa: trr.pcr!i

Canlrat Committee mooting Tuesday left Hungarian party leader Kodar strengthened, likely loonference next week not lo name scapegoats, have open-onced discussion ofentral Committee, leadership changes planned.

New Yugoslav Defenser Veljko Kadljevic more Western-oriented ihanS-lralned army general, has background In armsavors Improving defense coop-'atlon with US. continuing arms antes lo Third World.

. other tiilnt

tensions. US pressure have hardened Yugoslav line

)

Iran May Initiate Attacks

lack

Although lha intenilly of tna tanker wa'r.in the past usually was determined by the level of Iraqi ship atlacka and subsequent Iranian retaliation Tehran may now atlackhoul regard to Iraq', lack ^success. Iran has attackedo (ar this year; excluding

B,nto the US-Iranian clash last month, i, has -Hacked sassfctsnkers .nee Iraq's lasttiack. Iran almost certainlywant to demonstrate thai it has notated Dy recent setcscka In tha Gulf and inar

ancicr - aearessoagainst Iraq's ali.es. a. shown by Ms attempt toe GuNwtauehon for Iraqi attacks, by its renewed mining operation, as' monthy lie increased terrorism againstno Riyadh since March Tehran appear, determined to hit the Saudis for thoir

e *nd

Continued Iranian ship aiiacka may alsoesponse to tho expanded US prolectlon programpeech last week. IranianSpeaker Mafsanjanl accused Washington of siding with Baghdad. He said Iran', potlcy is to deter Iraqi attacks by retaliatingc.lly Kuwait and 3aud. Arabia-mat have

laim to be neutral aMM aasa Iran will respond forcefully torence. Iran is unlikely to confront US forces directly, but lb. naval forces will try to operate |usi beyond the Bmlia of us protection to prove that shipping Is still vulnerable to attac

evertheless, reaffirmed Iran's:i stop attacking shiosa does Tehran almost ce.ia-.ry recocn.res thai B

Wiov-ng its losses last month

andsnslon ol the US proiect.cn program. Moreover,sabouujc against the Gut* Arabs may be more appealing toiha: ack.

becoming nsk<er.i

Tehran he* long rkSStl Ihai no shipping in me Gulf con be secure until an shipping Is safe, and it Is certain to retaUate tor successful Iraqi ship atiack. Iran la navarmeieas using Iraq's lack of successut it. own anMh.pplng campaign, perhaps to limit demands on its overburdened naval forces andv to lower tension In the dull toolitical advantage! aHMMpHHssBBsiBaato

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