NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 9 MAY 1988

Created: 5/9/1988

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

. Warning Page

Contents

Panama: Situation Repor( Poland: Confrontation Continues

El Salvador: Parly Politics increasingly Polarized Note*

" Lebanon: Amal-Hizballah Clashes in) Hungary; Party To Decide Kadar's Pale

Oermany: Slow Growlh Continues USSR: Foreign Ministry-Overhaul Predicted Indonesia: Talcing Steps To Scotch Rumor Mill Cuba-Brazil: Cultural Accord

Sudan: Military Disgusted by Political Disarray

In Brief

0

II 11

12

Analyses

Donmnrk: Election Challenge to NATO Policies South Korea: Postelection Politics Calm. So Far

13

14

IS

)

tfHMHP^UpposlHon elforto loonsensus on to resolve the political crisis are unlikely to succeed

fundamental internal divisions remain uiresotved. Moreover, evenpecific agreement were reached, tho opposition has almost no political clout wtlh which lo pressure the regime to accept Ka proposal. The opposition's past demands for military reform would cause the Defense Forces to reject any proposal that grivea civilians eulhortty over Iheir activities. Any apparent softening ot the opposition's position on Noriega being able toanama wouldignificant

Confrontation Continues

regime sMfl refasea lo legalise Solidarity bul la tryingconciliatory by apologizing tor uting force ef theileal mill and by allowing church mediation ol theelrlke In Gdansk. Ueenwhlte. Lech Waleea end the

t3

arorkere ere sticking lo Iheir demands and lo the course

of confrontation with ihe euthorlllet MM )

e|o- bl^ome^yenegr the govwrnmoniaturday apologlzedM^HHstorming lhe Nowajlula plam on Thursday before church mediation could begin*

j;naaaWHpM^hfl regime also arranged far church medlollon end

promised notse lorco agalnel tho Gdansk worker* white talks coniinue there. That set of talks bogged down qulckfy. however, when olflclali eald they would not consider recognizing Solidarity. The regime has also Intensified divisive pressures on the atrlkeio by announcing Jail lerms of up to three months for arrested Solidarity _acttvlst* while offering pay hikes and__nojecrlmlnatlone If workers quit - the atrtke Wi GrJansk. Buti__ '

me regime withdrew lhe pay offer when the talks failed(3)

I The apology acknowledgeswill noi immediately offpoWlceJ damage done to church.alate relation* by the Nowa Huta raid. Despite their bitterness, church leadera probably let compelled to offer tojncdlate et Gdansk tootentially more violenthe regime, however, win probably not make the one concession that would appease Ihe church and theerious dialogue withepresentatives even If not officially through

The regime, through Its Initial pay offer end by hammering et Walesa's "destructive" political ambitions, is desperately tryingortray birn aa Intransigent and lo build Ha case for more docialve action against Ihe strikers. For his port, Walesa has apparently concluded that settling tor pay hikes and clemency wouldore disastrous

defeat than holding outompromise on the Issueenuine polilicalP jj ^

ounting on both sides, and It Is not clear when Ihe Gdansk talks will resume. Church mediators wflTprobabfy work on Walesa to find some compromise short ol violence: Ihe regime in lurn must copeetermined adversary who has widespread domestic and International sympathy without creating an Incident thai " hrs Imagelegltlmato" national

D(3)

ELPolitics lot reaamgly Polanied

Set.mdo'nn poliUcal parties have begunoisputed seat In the National Assemb'r under military pressure to resolve thaq n>

fr* newly elected National Assembly postponed it*on Thursday Because of en increasingly bitter dispute OverIhat would give the rgntwmg rational Republican Alliance control ot the legislature Thewhen the Alliance and PresidentitmratelyAssembly li^itferr,

is conducting talks wiih the smaller party. Hhjch holds thepoweilhe two major parties

Duarte announced he vriH meet with the three parlies onay

to discuss the Assembly impasse.ew proposal lor talks with. tai

tne Salvador^ rebels taWsHHsVaVM he laves

egotiated solution io lhe political controversy end lhal theSatvadoran Supreme Court should not have accepted lhe Alliance's appeal to decide the disputed seat. The Christian Democrats In the outgoing Assembly tried unsuccessfully to lire the Court justices

The Salvadoran press is reporting coup rumors following recent military statementsrompt resolution ol the legislativetandoff. The Cniet of the Joint Staff criticized tho installation of rival Assemblies, saying that the guerrillas would take advantage of the turmoil If II po'Slsls The Defense Minister^met sepa'aie'y wtth the poutical parties tor seven hours on Wednesday

assBsWHsS ' postponement of the legislative session will avoid

aggravating Ihe dispute while the parties negotiate. Despiteto host talks, he has made no move to conciliate the two sides

thus far and has supported his party's efforts to preserve Itsthe new Assembly. His sudden offer of new discussions withweeks after he reiterated his refusal to dosettiemrni of the dispule and fuel military concernsintentions esssVb

A coup against Duarte is not likely because the military Is emphasizing that' it does not favor either party and wishes to remain apolitical.rolonged stalematevpkeJh^mJirtarvto attempt toolution to the dispute tHBstsfflBMHtav^

b(3)

LEBANON: Am el-Hizballahn Beirut

Fighting between pro-Syrian Amal militiamen and prolrnniun Hizballah lighters continues In Beirut's southern suburbs despite otforts toease-tire. According to Lebanese press reports, there nave bean moreasualties..in the tlphtlnp that

reports Syrian military intelligence chief lor Lebanon, Ghazl Kan an. met with Amal militia chief Nabih Barri yeaterdayeflMasssf

Neither side appears to have scored any decisive victories In tho lighting so tar. although Hizballah has generatfy had the upper hand. The Intenaity of the clashes indicates that the already deeply spirt Shia community will be further polarized.ole Is critical The Syrians probably want toa (or confrontation that could spread to theaa Valley and complicate Syrian-Iranian ties If Ami) suiters serious losses or If the fighting continues indefinitely, however. Syria wil1 probably feel compelled to provide at least indirect support for Amal. Damascus could step up logistic aid and encourage the Lebanese Army's predominantly Shia 6th Brigade to intervene on Amal's side forcefully. SyrlB wjjiuso im own military forces onlyast resort.

b(3)

HUNGARY: Parly To Decide Kadar's Fate

Hungarian party leader kadar. responding to the efforts ol Premier Grosz to unseat him. claimedecent Interview that he Is witling to retire If tne party so desires Groez has aald publicly that tomorrow's Central Committee meeting wttt decide whether to replace Kadar at party conference onay. Other senior party officials aeiLKada' honorar. .

[Kadar win retain his*pOSllion, imbers and uphlrd of the Central Committee win be replaced,

(3) he Is wor wn

JuBY

'Kadar probably Is being disingenuous about retirement; working hard to pack the conference with supporters,f he Is ousted. It will not be for lack ol trying to retain power. He probably would step down gracefully It he loses hie post, provided he Is assured that his successor win not blame him (or Hungary's deepening economic and social maladies or tor events related to the revolutionadar almost certainly opposes the elevation of Grosz. who has publicly attacked his leadership abilities, increasing pressures for moro dynamic leadership are likely to result soon in ihg_puslor of some of Kadar's "Ofd Guard" cronlea

EAST GERMANY: Slow Growth Continual

The East Germanthe strongest In Easterngrew'slowly In (he flrsl Quarter, at about laslercent pace. AccordingMo official statistics, six of thendustrial sectors-including the key machine toolsshort ot plan targets. Industries producing consumer goods continue to lag behind plan goals, although retail sales jfgures were up sharply, probably In pan because of price hikes

Cc^wrrH: ;Rrst-quarter results Indicate that the sluggisheconomic growth of the past three years has noiTo accelerate growth, the regime must Increaseovercome labor shortages, obsolescent technology,and declining export competitiveness. It ts notto divert many resources from consumption tostable consumer suppHes underglrd He HmltedThe current unrest In Poland also will reinforce theof both austerity and market-oriented reformsunsound and politically destabilizing. Instead,will probably continue to seek Western technologyan'*ation Io Improve

Top SBcrat

USSR: Foreign Ministry Overhaul Predicted

Oeparimont'

to eera will

weeping relorm "modeled on

will lake place In the Soviet Foreign Ministry during the

nextawo months to cut the massive bureaucracy, make the Ministry smaller and mote efficient many sen be retired, sent overseas as ambassadors, orn the government.

iThe changes probably involve organizing the Ministry along functional lines and win not be aa sweeping us suggested because when Eduard Shevardnadze took over as Foreign Minlaler In IMS he replaced much of the top-level leadership and mad*number of organizational changes. Nevertheless, he described the resulls as "extremely modest"peech In7 to the Ministry reviewing the changes and said that additional steps would be taken. None of them ts Ukefy to resultignificant shift In Soviet foreign policy, which Is already being set by "newut the eluninatlon of desdwood el tower tevojswiu help ensures implemented morotfMVM||fMSBMr

INDONESIA: Tatting Steps To Scotch Rumor Mill

Indonesian Minister for Pontics and Security Sudomo lest Thursday pubkcly denied widespread rumors that aome Cabinet membera have connections to the banned Indonesian Communist Party. He acknowledged that Communismlatent danger" In Indonesia but suggested accusations ot Communis' ties be rr to security officials rather than to thenonymous lettei charging lhal Vice Pres dent Sudharmono end other government officials have Communist backgrounds gmajt^tff

leaMHHIJThr longstanding rumor? of Communist cTTnnectlons among high-level government officials reflect the military's issatisfaction with Sudharmono and several of his allies, to whom President Scenario recently gave increased Cabinetontinuing anti-Sudharmono drive may get out of hand and threaten Soeharto'a authority. Sudomo's statement, certainly authorized by SoehartQjs probably tho lirst step to keep the rumore In check

b(3)

b(3)

CUBA-BRAZIL; Cultural Accord

Brazil and Cubaultural agreement during the recent ottciai visit ot Cuban Vice President Rodngjor. butekaajaaajjajBBgtjSjr

th* vtslt wasedia thanTie accord Ihe first since the twojoversthe exenanges ol graduate students,and athieteifailed to

obtain credits to expand bilateral trade, and Rodriguez told the press that dates have yet lo be set for the planned exchange of presidential

The vii.lt is lhe secondenlor Cuban official(3) Minister Malmterca visited Brazil In January. Havanato gam Influence In the region through nonthreatoningBrazilian oflrclai and lourtst travel to Cuba Is growing.has Kttte merest in increasing trade wtth Havanae visit by President.

t

SUDAN: Military Disgunled by Political Disarray

Sudan's political di

m.Mary discontentover

ew ruling coalition has left the government nearly

the National Islamic Front in thc new government is likely lo polariie differences between north and south and decrease prospecls lor an end to lhe southerngrowing public sentiment tor the military io intervene andemblance of orjJerraTthouqh solarthe military is disinclined to do so.l

b(3)

(Military discontent wiih Prime Minister Sadfq Isbut senior oflicers remain reluctant to lake powerresponsibility lor Sudan's Intractable problems. Civilianfrom basic commodity shortageseries ofhowever, could prompt the military to move. Seriousagainst insurgents in thethe Army'salso provoke the military to movecivilian

>

;

t

In Brtef

Now Belgian Cabinetlndemans nsmalns Foretgrirancophone Soclnlltt Guy Coeme named Defense

pro-NATO views of(3j

EC blocking US request lhal GATT review EC oilseedC likely to counter by pushing Its Uruguay Round propoaal lo end duty-free treatment of soybeanould affectlMlon otonekt* ,,

Unolticial returns In Ecuadorian presidential election givesocial democratopulist candidateucaram'a joss eliminates threat ofm-r- *aassssVvi.

Syrian President Assad on Friday made first public appearance In

urity tighter iq_ amascus, bu! military activity itirougriout Syrln

Colonel Shahbazl named Chief of Joint Staff of Iran's regular militaryore supportive of war against Iraq and Revolutionary Guard thanuggests, may be coming out on top despite loss of Al Faw.l"

)

b(3)

Special Analysis

Challenge lo NATO Policies

/nTonserveWve Prima Minister Schlueler's minority government remelns In office after the erectionthe potts swppeif"may fie able to away anough legislators to override the recent parliamentary resolution restricting visits by nuclear-capable ships.ocial Democratic-led government would be likely to look tor an opportunity tolha ship-vlstt resolution In view ot the strong Alliance reaction but would present NATO with problems on other securitylPto

Schiueter has used Ihe Allies' negative response to thepril resolution to cast the electioneferendum on Denmark's NATO membership and.esser extent, on his government's economic policy successes. The Social Oemocrats aro on the defensive and are attempting to defiedtrategy by portraying the US and British reactions as Interference In Denmark's Internal affair

Although the Issue of the ship visits may be settledchiueter victory, the election Is unlikely to provide tne new governmentandate for change in ollher security or economic policy. Ineftistsecurityprobably continue lo conslraln Denmark's contribution lo NATO. The conventional force commitment Denmark has made to NATO Is likely to deteriorate further, even If the Conservative-led coalition governmentpro-NATO" mandair ffBffg,

If the election permlKed tho Social Democrats

coalition government, SOP leader Auken would probably try to reinterpret 1he ship-visit resolutionay that ho believed would be acceptable to the Allies. Auken would face strong pressure from the left not to offer any concessions, but continued admonitions Irom NATO thai the resolution Jeopardized Denmark's NATO membership might catalyze an SDP break Irom its leftist partners and an unraveling of lhe coalition. So long as an SDP-led government remained in power, however, ii would implement ajero-growth delense budget and might be responsive to renewed leftist demands

foynouirjesjnto US mlliiary activities in Greenland. (

b(3)

Special Analysis

SOUTHPolitics Cairn. So Far

Korean President Aon appears to be taking In atrlde tha opposition* victory Ina/arlty In tho National Aasembly lest month, Ron's conservative postelection shuffle of perty end Cabinet pasta pro/ecta the Imageeader determined to keep his pollttcel egende on course. More teats will come later this month when the opposition and ruling parties'apportion the Assembly's leadership posts end set prozadurni rule I famm%tti

Ron has publicly sought to put Ihe best lace on iheencouraging lhe ruling party and calling on the oppositionse Its victory responsibly in addition, he has made clear thai he has no plans to relreal Irom his promise ol further reform The President has continued to use his executive powers actively. Including lhe creationommittee lo review the constllutlonallly ol existing laws and rejuvenation of an advisory group on education. He also has moved quickly to avoid bureaucratic paralysis and uncertainly In the Army by quelling fearsolitically moifvated purge of the senior government and military leader ship. 4JJ|0

Roh appears ready to counter opposition plans to exploit the problems his administration Inherited from former President Chun. On Saturday. Ronough loyalist lo the powerful post ot Home Affairs Ministersupervision ofnciolitically conservative career Jurist tc become lhe inlo"igonce chJef as director ol Ihe National Security Planning Agency. Moreover, Roh's controversial choice for rullng-parly Secretary GeneralJunormer general who commanded the troops used to restore order Inlly alter the riots into Indicate that he will not be cowed by threatened parliamentary Investigations Into

he

Roh's Initial posteksciion efforts seem suited to keepingagenda on course.orking relationship wtih in lhe Assembly may have become more difficult, however.

with Roh's appointment of known hardliners lo seealtive posts. So far the three opposition parties have treated sensitive subjects carefully, offering lo put off investigations of corruption under President Chun and election fraud until after lhe Olympics In September. Tho opposition's lone and tactics are likely to sharpen If Inlerparty negotiations on procedural matters, such as dividing Assembly leadership posts, become sticky over the next month. The opposition also might use special sessions to review US South Korean trade negotiations and securitylut ring arrangements to out the Roh administration, on the defensive.(HMMMHlH^^H

Original document.

Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:

CAPTCHA