GUATEMALA: POTENTIAL FOR A COUP

Created: 9/12/1988

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

NOFORM

aa allowing their _ejtjbllah offices ln

representatives to

riticised for pursuing political ambitions and ignoring hie militaryprobably Is ln more immediate ieooardv than i*H..i

Risks to Careae

Tho removal of General Cramajo by Cerero -laht initi.llv

t* Unre8tend ouyfor

the civilian government. inimum, it would be seen In the

commiunent tovoiced by

J* Cereso manages to improve relations with the

em: ri*h* Is likely to continue publicPreaident and hia

tacka

sec/et

A coalition of dissident officers mnd triela likely to make another attempt to ouatand Minister of Defense Cramajo bofore tha end of thepresentilitary tensions are defused. Evenhave been unable to rally broadbased aupporta move so far. their schemes are likely to gain momentumPresident falls to adjust acme of hia moatand remain" a coup

Is likely if th* following condition*

Three of the four key military unit* baaed in GuatemalaManscal Zavala Brigade. Air rorc* Tactical Croup. Honor Guard Brigade, and Presidential Guardagree tooup.

At least on* parsonh politicalure, auch a* Chief of Staff Callejaa or Honor Brigade Commander Narroguln. agree* to aupport the ouster and helpoat-Ceraao govfimenl.

However, the

coup could

The plotter* believe they have an effective strategy to deflect international criticism.

and cooperation necessary lor a eoccose build suddenly and with little advance warning.

If th* Prealdent were oustedoup, the military probably wouldaretaker government headed bj civilian and announce its Intent to hold new election*.

Original document.

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