SOVIET MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO THE THIRD WORLD; MAJOR CUTS UNLIKELY IN THE NEXT

Created: 5/1/1989

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

RatASE AS SANITIZED

HEPJORWJDUM FOBi Sea Distribution .

Military AoeUtance to the Third

World: Hi]i'i CUta Unlikely In tho Next Two Years ""

Tho attached ncatoraftduaihe proapectc for najor cuts in Soviut military aaalatan-cc. practice

of using am Hi -year agreement* for araia

on an aid baala aukas aharp teduction* unlikely until current contracta aia completed. The Soviets appeor dotoolnnd. hovtvor, Co cut the coata ol aid in the longer teraa.

nontoranduai van preparrd b|

Office at Global leave*

comneiiLa and OUcrieB ore WcltX/^aj

Att.iehaient:S

CJ> BY [iKi.-i.RV FM HUf.T

DIRECTORATE OF 9

et nnii-irY Aaalajanca to the Third:ver the Went TWO _Vejra_

Wo*cow'a long-Urn agreement* to provJd* military

aaoitttnce to Third Korld nation* will limit ltd naneuvering

toon In cutting coat* over the neat two ycar..L

^Indicate that noot Soviet arm*

ootmuntat and Marxlot client*othtrdeveloped countriesthat run0 or Into will honor elatinghich provid. ovarann^Uy *rant military

and may evea giv* additional to cUonts righting inaurgoncle.. oacow appears increasingly determined to cut the coat*it. nillury mUUnct program,xpect that in negotiating; the next aeriee of agreement* It will be leao generous.

Thiswas prepared by

OfriCft of Global Ia*ue* ba*ori on vailable aft of IS Apr.

5

B.

DKCL

DRV Fn MULTIPLE

Soviet Military Aoclatance to the Third Worldi Major Cuta UnllKelv over the went Tvo Years

The USSR Is trying to make arms transfersaa part of Gorbachev's restructuring ofeconomy. ajor part of this effort hasreducing the anount of weapons provided to Thirdon an aid baola. Of thebillion in1 Ion--overercent ofprovided on an outright grant basis, oercent of armsfinanced by

loane that will probably never be repaid. Moscow'a contractingowever, will make reducing thia burden difficult.

typically provides military aaojotance to Third World countriea which receive inu on an aid basis through comprehensive multi-year agreements.

greements usually detail all Uw equipment tloacow plans to deliverhree to five' year period. While an agreenent mayingle contract or an umbrella credit facility under which neveral delivery contracts will be eigned. it always lisle the value, tenia, and delivery dates of the equipment. In addition, the agreementeaerve ofoercent of the value Of the deal to finance imports of spare parte.

Wo believe that nil of Moscow's Coauaunlst and hamlet allies in the Third World currently have multi-year irun controctn with tho USSR;

o Ethiopia and Mozaablcnie sinned contrecte

o Angolaontract that 'iiniccording loT

Nicaragua ia currently receiving arnogreenent. theil of July plan- nt runs

OJS

BY

HtCLOanR

URV tMIE

liet the Soviets agreed to nupport Vietnam's occupatlon ol Caavbodla Wo suspect that Cambodia probably alsoontract arouivd the -itime.

o

late5 Laoa waa preparing Its aid retgueat to6 through

recelvca It* aims under

five-yearhile we do not know the period covered by the current deel, we believe It im probably tied, aa le Keacow's econcaelc eld to Havana, to the Soviet five year plan that enda

Ne do not have epoclflc information on recent Sovietwith South Yemen and Afghanistan, but weprobably also Involve, nulti-year contractswith alallar political and economicreceive comparable military assistance terns Moreover. Afghanistan elgncd severalInwoole-tent3 1

Soviet assistanceruaaber of lese closely allied Third World countries Is alee covered under eailtl-year arraa contractsi

O Tanzaniasjsr yee arme_^ecksg*

o Burundi le receiving aiaialve-yeer uackage datingj__

3 Thin lemulti-year

package.

o Concroive ye-rdeal

we do not

know If Itew deal.

receives arsis

under some sort of five-year plan. Damascus' problene securing new Soviet weapons In the last several years, however, suggest that th- nl in probably leirm multi-ysar contract.

The Soviet Union often supplements the ruin arms package with smaller contracts that wc eetlnate can add about IS percent note- 'a nllltarv dellverleeiven country. Analysis

S

example. Indicate that cone

^ipwnt-.notawy transport aircraft andnot includedain contract.'

also sign supplementary contracts to meet specific client needs, most often for countries fighting insurgencies or vara.

3for exaaaple.r- thiopiaupplementary contract0eplaceoeaes.

tilt*. v< the Ethiopians

nVwtBeroemergency *Jd

upplementnry contractnd vc believe

tSuT'tZragreements with Kabul8 to bolster Its Corceo aa Soviet units withdrew.

Eyprobably agreed to

ac aeaac partIcaraguan regueatupplement to lta five-year agreement.

illr-Terat Cuts In Dellver^e

..VlT. BVlltJ:yS*rofagreements will, in our view, limitbility to cut the coats of jUlit.ry assistance, to it. Third World clientso estimate that the countries receiving multi-year

ItZtrf"8receive tt leastillion

annually in outright grant military aid from the USSRercent of total Soviet grant ald-and

?n deCBCto

its past behavior ae well as the nature of the clients and

their neede. wo expect that the USSR will fulfillcontractual commitments, thereby enaurlngdeliveries over the next two

preportinoC ^indicate, that the SovietsS??nunilaterally, and deliveries

continuingigh level. Moreover. Corbnchev was in pover when tho current agreements were signed and alsoet certainly approved them.

probably reflecte the Soviet bureaucratic ?irCt)U" "hlch civil export organizations sell these

yri? n thr,,uah the main Soviet arms exporter, the Chief Engineering Directorate of the General

-The Soviets and their clients aloe typically sign dMon.-or even hundrede-of small supplements financed out of the spare parte reserve in the main contract. Theoe deal, are riot Included in theercent oetinate because they do not Increase the overall valueontract.

1 ld conaiate of arme sales financed by loans that Moscow knows are unlikely to be repaid.

S

4

While there ore unlikely to be major cut. indeliveries to its clionte in the short term,will be limited cute resulting Iron reductionsto countries currently figlitine; wars andIn delivery patterns. Fijhtlng insharply for exaaaple. and our analysis thereorresponding

cVrop in ehipnents of consumable, ami of the value of deliveriee to Vietnam and Cauabodla. The probable collepse ot the Afghan reglne also will reduct Moscow's aid bill. Soviet deliveries to sll of its clleito could fall itodeetly

Indicates that the value of deliveriee usually falls in the lent yeareal because Boat or ell of the major weapons have already been shipped.

Athe Kent Bound of Negotlationn

Over the longer

indicates that Hoscow plans to cut back sharply on military aid to Third World cliento as current contracts enpire in

. J

Soviet

S

-^tho Soviet military hao en told not to plan for any increases, in90 and that Moscow plans to ease out of its commltnente to provide arms to cliento. Foreign Minister Shevardnadze stated publicly in8 that the USSR cannot supply all of Its clients' military and econonlc needs. With regard to specific clients:

3

.te have told Vie Warn* that they will support its occupation of Cajiibodla only

0 reports Soviet

Politburo member Chebrlkov may have warned Ethiopian officials in9 that Moscow will not renew its nllitary aid agreement

^ln8 that Moscow plans to cut military aid to Maputo by io percent.

efforts to push negotiated settlements In Indochina. Ethiopia. Afghonleten, and Nicaragua uo.ild. if successful,reduce denando for Soviet military assistance.

Wliile Moscow's previous threats to cut militaryproved empty andfuture

cutbacks could be pertropaganda effort, we believe that. If Gorbachev continues to hold power, Moccow probably

OSS

.

will cut arms aid significantly ln the The Soviet leadership la looking for aavlnga to help relnvigorate the domestic economy, and we believe that It probably percolvea the Soviet military aid burden to be both unneceosarlly heavy and largely without payoff. ln our view, Moscow will be particularly tough with Cuba. South Yemen, and other atatea not facing an Immediate military threat, reasoning that cutback! in aid will neither endanger theao or aerlously erode the Soviet position alnce theae countries have few prospects to find Alternative arme sources. He believe that theoea not plan to abandon any regimes, and clients facing continuing Insurgencies or ware ere likely to see saaaller cuts in aid. Even countries at war. however, probably will find Moscow less willing to provide the weapona they oeeK- -particularly if. like Ethiopia, they do not follow Koacow's advice to negotiate.

Will, on the other hand, continue efforts to Increase arraa selee for hard currency or other tangible returns.

5

Appendix.

Soviet Annsther patjona

Hoacov signs botli ceaprehenaive long-trimand snaller contracta. sometimes (or asystem, with paying customers in the Thirdand Algeria signed

ince then they have negotiated

core specific

forllndlaontract for airbought Kilo aunmarlnea n s

separate aoiiament.Algiers

rejectedSoviet effort to sellnd instead bought only ground and navalpanern of deliveriaa Co Irec

suggeata that Baghdad may haveuatber 01 two year contracts. Several other nations, such as Kuwait, Peru, and Jordan, have bought Soviet arme onlv sporadically and hove not needed long-term agreements.

ClS

SUBJECT, Soviet Military Assistance to the Third World; Major Cats Unlikely in the Next Tvo Yeara

DOI/OGI

Distr

ibutlon

Hoods. Depsttatent of Defense RAdm. Tinothy Wright. Departaae.it of Defense Edward W. Criehsi. Jr., Department of Defense Richard C. Brown, Depsrtnsnt of Defense James K. Blnna, Jr., Depertsient of Defense George Bader. epartment of. Defense John S. Hurray. Department of Defense Llvellyn 2ent, II, Department of Defense BCen. Charles D. Link. Departaaent of Defense Charles A. Hawkins. Department of Defense Vincent A. Kern, Departaaent of Defense Robert A. efense Intelligence Agency Dr. Henry H Csffney, Department of Defense The Hen. Robert Bleckwell. National Security Council David rechelll. Nations! Security Council The Hon. Dsvld Miller, otional Security Council The Hon. Karl Jackson, National Security Council Brucelack, National Security Agency Bill Burns. Departaaent of State Marilyn Korln. Department of State Charles Jefferson. Departaaent of State

Raymond B. Firshock, Jr..isarmament Agency Charles Dueller, Jr.. Departaaent of Stats Charles H. Fteaman. epartment of Stat* Donald Westaaor*. asent. of State Charles ii. Thoaas. Department of State Cel. Joe Bavaria, Department of State IjiIoI Flneudl. Department of State

Original document.

---

---