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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
9
Yugoslavia: Burgeoning Slovene Politicalultiparty System?;
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. Independent, nonLComrhunist poilUcal groups in Yugoslavia's .Republic,lovenia are growing In number, becoming increasingly weil-organized. Iieldmg. candidates. lorstraining olerance of: both, traditionallyeadersqrtnodokyieaders. elsevvhere.-These group's varY-in'But:are-generally committed to promotingmore Western-style, political system.'Their fate: depends in part on the. outcome of national polltlcel'suuggles-now-being-waged over Serbian leader. Milosevic's bid for. greater" power.' s" w'eTbetleveT^llo'sevli^is constrainedr the Slovenerobably will allow the most moderate groups to play. an(1ncreaslngty active and influential role in the Slovene political system, despite the hostility of more orthodox' federal and regional leaders as well as.esser extent, the military. Other groups that overtly seek_to overturn Communist Party supremacy.'though, probably will be repressed.
phenomenonn-Communist political groups is unlikely to spread quickly beyond Slovenia. In the short term the Slovene developments -will aggravate Inter-regional tensions and instability, burin the longer termill promote US interests in political liberalization and humaiwirihJ^and widen the ideoiogiclai gap between Yugoslevta and the Soviet bioc.B
memorandum was preparedvailable as of
of European
Discussion
Growth of Semi-Official Politics! Grouos in Slovenia
The development of non -Communist political groups in Slovene has itstia single-issue "alternative movrmwii" that have arisen in tna republic since athen environmental, peace, and ami-nuclear groups formed According to press reports, these groupsiy ware small, narrowly focused, and nad no sat membership or formal orgsnlzetlon. Their tollowers were mostly untve"itv students Since last spring, me numbe' of mesa political croups anaues have grown, and several have begun to Increasingly resemble political partlesX"
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Slovenia has been the country's main site for non-Communist political groups because it Is the mosi Western-oriented republic andong tradition of tolerating opposing views. The two million Slovenes, once members of the Auatro-Hunue.ian Empire, have strong ties with Central European culturesonviction that more human and civil rights would help ease Yugoslavia's many economic and political problems. By contrast, the ethnic groups of Yugoslavia's southern republics devetopeO under the more despotic rule ot the Ottoman Turks. Only Croatia, which also developed under Hapsburg rule, approaches Slovenia In Its Westward orientation.
The Most Prominent Groups
While the single-issue "alternative movements" continue to emit, four vocal and important new groups have begun to play an increasingly pronounced iole In Slovene pontics They have developed platforms, organized meetings, run candidates tor republic elections, andange of significant political issue* Thaw memoers and lexers reflect the views and des'tes ol^inaianiy olbene' manpredecessors in ths "alternative movements 'MW
The Slovene groups, however, also manifest an insular nationalism, reflecting the republic's intense pride and disdain for what it considers the more beckward southern nationalities. Not only do these groups' names ah bear the wordut most oflired<imarhvioni in the republic, not the country
In roughly descending order, starting with the more radical groups most likely to challengesting one-party system, these groups include
0 Tha Slovene Social Democratic Association ISDAj. The SOA. which calls itself an autonomous political organization, is the most nationalist of the four groups and tha most vocal opponent of the Communist Party During <tl founding meeting In mid-february. its leaders ware deliberately vague as to whetho' they would work within the Socialistapparent litmus last used bySlovane leadership to ludgeroup is acceptable Tha SDA nowill only won within me Socialist Alliance rf the Alliance changes its charter so that Communist Party members do not gat prt'erential treatment tor nominations to government posts
The Socialist Allianceass organization under the auspices of the Communis! Party that nominates csndidetas for government positions The republic legislature elects republic and federal government officials from the Socialist Alliance's Hal of ngrnin
The SDA argues that every cltuen has the right to live in freedom end prosperity end toismiss leaders acrorr-inc; tt damocratic procedures More specifically, press 'eports indicate ihe SDAuropean-type parliamentary system in Slovenia and direct elections witn secret bsllots for all republic offices. Press reports number Its members. consisting of both Intellectuals and workers Its first goal is the draftingew Slovene constitution that would more clearly delineate and proteCl Slovene sovereignty within the federation. Pan of Us platform also advocates some type of Slovene cultural forum end unspecified rights for Slovene* all over the world. The SOA is the only one of the four most prominent groups to have an economic platform. It callsree-market economy, emphasizing private entrepreneur ship and sn end to the welfare state
o The Slovene Democratic Union of Reason (SDU) The SDU is only <omewhal less outspoken In opposing Communist one-party rule than the SDA According to the SOU'S program, its leaders went toarliamentary democracy in Slovenia modeled on that in Western Europe. It differs from thehat it views itself as an umbrella organization for other groups, like the SDA and the Peasants' Union (discussedhat agree with its program According to recent press reports tne SDU naiembers. At the SOU'S founding congress last December, some members vowed not to work within the Socialist Alliance and to publicly challenge tha Communist Party. Though this view reportedly received resounding applause, the SDU's moderates prevailed and It was not adopted. The SDU's platform Is the most specific of any of the four groups. It includes.
-Adoptionew Slovene constitution thai guarantees Slovene sovereignty over defense, political, and economic policies.
-Abolition of courts martial and military trials during peacetime to prevent such occurrences as last spring's arrest and military trial of Slovene lournallsts. Opposition to streetrobable reference to pro-Serbian nationalist demonstrations, some*.mes with anti-Slovene overtones, thai have taken place over the past year
-Abolition of such ante pnviieges and abuses as bribes, country homes, and other pertu
-The protection of Slovenia's natural. Cultural, end historical heritage
o The Slovene Committee for trie Protection ot Human Rights, founded last spring to defend three Slovene youth (ournelists accused by the military of disclosing state secrets, this committee has grown in scope and political influence. Republic leaders claim that it has more members then the Slovene Communist Party, which numberedy all accounts the committee laader, Igor Bevcar, has become popular with the Slovene public, makingorce with which the Slovene leadership must contend The committee still is predominantly concerned with the fate ol the Journalists, who remain free pending (he start ol their sentences. According to press reports, however, it has pursued the case of other Slovenes whose human rights. It claims, have been abused by tha Army The press indicates the committee more recently has also begun pushing for unspecified political reforms
Despite us growing influence this group's challenge to the system is likely to
limited Bavcar has assured authorities that his committee is not an opposition party,arty of any kind, and has piodfjed to work to ensure Slovene rights within ihee-party system and from within the Socialist Alliance. Last fall, however, Bavcar ranosition on the republic's collective Presidency He reportedlylurality o' support from delegates to the republican Socialist Alliance at the opcina (county) level, but received the least number of total votes cast within the A'flence. Thedelegates comprise only one-third of the total number of delegates, with the remaining two-thirds controlled by institutions (parly, trade unions, youth league,ho voted solidly against the non-party candidate. Press reports indlcete committees with similar names and goals have formed In Vojvodlna Province and the Republic ol Montenegro. It is unclear if they have any connection to Ihe Slovene committee
0 The Slovene Peasants Union The Peasants' Union began as the leest controversial ot the four groups profiled here but now seems to be allying itself with radical groups. Farmers founded the Union last Mayrofessional organization exclusively devoted to advancing their economic and social Interests. According to press reports the group, which held Its first annual meeting In mid-March, currently has0 members. The Union's lendersmp has vowed to work within the Socialist Alliance as longhe Communist Party respects the Union's rights and objecnvei The Unionandidate to fill en opening in the republic Presidency last fall. The candidate lost but did somewhat better then Bavcar in getting votes in Ihe Socialist Alliance. According to me press. It has since aqrjed to work with the SOA and SOU to get its people elected to republic offices
Slovene and Federal Leadership Reaction
The Slovene leadership la divided on the wisdomultiparty system and is torn between conflicting pressures from its populece and federal leaders in Belgrade Nonetheless, it eppears to be developing et least an ad hoc strategy for dealing with these groups On the one hand the Slovene leadership in both public and private statements supports and even encourages political groups that work within the Socialist Alliance. Republic President Janet Stenovnik. for example,estern audience last fatl that he regularh^onsuni with Human Rights Committee head Bavcar to get Input on policy decisions. IV
On the other hand, the leadersmp eppears to be toughening its stand toward oppasmon groups that refuse to work with the Socialist Alliance In the first such move reported horn Slovenia, the Western press Indicates the republic leadership test Oecembor through bureaucratic maneuverings.ounding meeting of the SOA wnen met group initially claimed it would work outside the system agamst (he Communist Party. The leadership allowed the SDA to hold the flathermgjn February but only after the group's leaders agreed to work within the Socialist All ai i
Slovene authorities appear torn between conceding greater political pluralism and remaining in step with more orthodox leeders elsewhere in Yugoslavia. Virtually all top Slovene leaders have issued statements condemning the developmentultiparty system, which is unconstitutional However, an official republic press release this te&'uery threatened that Slovenia would nothe Communist Party Congress scheduled lor this Decemberts purpose was merelyeaffirm the Party's leading role The Slovene leadership apparently Intends to push for reduced constraints on activities ol non-Communist political groups possibly by amending the party statutes.
eaders outside of Slovenia are hostile lo the republic's burgeoning political groups. They fear trie groups* nationalist bent mil lead the republic to grow even more isolellonisi and perhaps even try io secede. Moreover tr.oy fear ii wouldrecadeni to- ihe deve'opmeni of oiher regmneUy-based parties IhBt would aggravate ethnic teniions and instability, as happened during ihe interwa* era Ome' oftkte's oppose Slovene-style political liberalism because more direct elections and democratic procedures could threaten their positions. For example, the State Presidency recently reiterated its opposition to the formation of non-Communist politicallear slap at the Slovenes--in response to demandserbian demonstrators In Belgrade presumably fomented by Serbian leader Mllofsvic.
Shly the Croat!)
ovenia. a'though it has denounced as nationalist some of the fledgling political g'oupa in its republic
Prospectsultiparty System
The future of multiparty politics in Slovenia and nationwide hinges in targe measure on the outcome of the broader political struggle over Serbian nationalism and of such other threats to national stability as deepening economic problems tf. as we believe likely. Siovsnit end other republics contain the drive for national power by Serbia's Milosevic and preserve the current system of regional checks and balances, elementsultiparty system ara hkely lo be instituted in Slovenia, andesser extant Yugoslavia. Over the neat several veer*
Slovenia, prospects are good for constitutional and party statute changes in the coming year or two thai wowM allow non-Communist candidates to gam election to high-level republic and ultimately national-level posts Underystem leading repubbc-ievel government positlons--such as premier, president, and interior mm.ster--mev be reserved lor Communists while less sensitive positions (such as economic officials end tha Socialist Alliance chairman) may be open to non-Communist groups.e increasingly Irkcty if. as we expect, the independent political groups cooperate further and perhaps form coelmons with each otherh official groups like the league ol Socialist Youth According to Slovene press reports, the SDA and SDU already ere pleniwng to participate in tne0 election* for republic and nationallthough II is uncertain whether new amendments to_the Slovene constitution permitting independent participation will be approved by then.
At the seme time, in response to pressure Irom outside Slovenia, tne Slovene authorities will likely take *ome repressive measures to rein in the more radical gtoup* like the SDA and SOU. it they overtly oppose the existing Communist system. Slovene leaders may continue to ban unauthorliad' meetings, cntieue these groups In the media, endast resort arrest some group leaders "*
Sleps toward greater political pluralism nationwide will likely advance, thoughlower pace then in Slovenia Tew non-Communist groups with agendas as broad si some of tne Slovene ones ere likely to develop outside Slovenia Nonetheless, last year the Federal Socialist Alliance passed rules allowing semi-official, single-issue groupst within their body The Federal Trade Union has stated that it willew charter this year that will give them more autonomy from the Communist Party. The League of Socialist Youth is else discussing working outside of the Socialist Alliance and declaring itself autonomous from the Communist Party The Party itself Isractice to defer decisions on key economic and national security Issues to governmental
Original document.
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