SUBJECT: EUROPEAN BRIEF
JI MARCH
YUGOSLAVIA: UNEASY QUIET IN KOSOVO
ETHNIC ALBANIAN RIOTS IN KOSOVO PROVINCE HAVE EBBED. BUT LOW-LEVEL UNREST WILL CONTINUE ANO HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR STABILITY, ECONOMIC REFORM. ANO HUMAN RIGHTS.
THE RECENT RIOTS WERE AMONG THE WORST SINCE THE IMMEDIATE POSTWAR ERA. THE OFFICIAL OEATH TOLL IS ANO UNCOMFIRMED REPORTS INDICATE iTJtA^t HIGH'.-. MORI STBiNC.Es* SECURITYAVE V
ETHNIC ALBANIANS RIOTED IN KOSOVO BECAUSE THEY IEUEVE THAT THE RECENTLY ADOPTED SERBIAN CONSTITUTIONAL MEASURES WILL SET BACK THE BROAD AUTONOMY TNIY WIRE GRANTEDERBIAN ACTIVISTS. LED BY PARTY CHIEF MILOSEVIC. FORCED ADOPTION OF THE AMENDMENTS BY OUSTING SEVERAL POPULAR ALBANIAN OFFICIALS WHO OPPOSED THE AMENDMENTS. BY EXAGGERATING THE EXTENT OF DISCRIMINATION AGAINST ETHNIC SERBS IN THE PROVINCE. AN: BY INTIMIOATING ETHNIC ALBANIANS IN THE PROVINCIAL
UNREST AND SPORADIC ATTACKS ON SECURITY FORCES ANO INSTITUTIONS IN THE PROVINCE PROBABLY WillEW WAVES OF DEMONSTRATIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. ESPECIALLY IF SERBIAN OFFICIALS STRONGLY EXERCISE THEIR NEW AUTHORITY OVER THE PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT. SECURITY FORCES PROBABLY WILL REMAIN ACTIVE IN THEhE RIOTS ALSO COULD SPAWN ATTACKS BY ETHNIC ALBANIAN EMIGRES ON YUGOSLAV FACILITIES IN THE
WEST.
THE RECENT RIOTS WILL NOT INTERFERE WITH MILOSEVIC'S ORIVE TO INCREASE HIS AND SERBIAN POWER IN YUGOSLAVIA. THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS FORMALIZE HIS GAINS IN RECENT MONTHS;.HE ALSO ORGANIZED MASS DEMONSTRATIONS THAT LED TO THE OUSTER OF THE LEADERSHIPS IN MONTENEGRO AND VOJVOOlNA. OALITION OF REGIONAL AND FEDERAL OFFICIALS PROBABLY WILL PREVENT HIM FROM MAKING FURTHER SIGNIFICANT GAINS. THE MILITARY. ALTHOUGH OOMINATEO BY ETHNIC SERB OFFICERS. MAY BEGIN TOIGGER ROLE IN INTERETHNIC CONFLICTS ANO IN POLITICS GENERALLY. ffLVl
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IMPLICATIONS FOR THE US
X--MORE HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS.YUGOSLAV SECURITY FORCES ARE
ALMOST CERTAIN TO ARREST MORI ETHNIC ALBANIANS FOR MAKING NATIONALIST STATEMENTS. THE COUNTRY'S POLITICAL PRISONERS ARE QVERWMELMINSLf ETHNIC ALBANIANS. DESPITE BEING ABOUTERCENT OF THE GENERAL POPULATION. YUGOSLAV AUTHfHiTiES Will hot RESPOND TO US REMONSTRATlONS ABOUT HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS yfkWm
TRAINS IN RELATIONS WITH THE US. YUGOSLAVIA'S ETHNICSERBS--IAKE US STATEMENTS ABOUT HUMAN RIGHTS PAROCHIALLY.IEW THAT COULD COMPLICATE LONGSTANDING US EFFORTS TO REFRAIN FROM TAKING SiDES IN YUGOSLAVIA'S NUMEROUS ETHNIC DISPUTES-SERBIAN MEDIA ALREADY ARE MAINTAINING THAT THE US IS PRC-Viii-iV aso AR! CALLING 'OR INCREASED SERBIAN LOBBY' NG IN Till US.
REGIONAL TENSIONS IN YUGOSLAVIA. TENSIONS BETWEEN THE MORE DEVELOPED REGIONS OF SLOVEN IA AND CROATIA AND THE SOUTH PROBABLY WILL INCREASE. SLOVENE OFFICIALS GENERALLY SUPPORT THf ALBANIANS. AND THIS UNPRECEDENTED SOLIOARITY WITH NON-SLAVS WILL SEVERELY STRAIN RELATIONS WITH SERBIA. CROATIAN OFFICIALS ONLY BELATEDLY SUPPORTED THE SECURITY MEASURES AGAINST THE AN GAINS IN THE PROVINCE COULD SPUR CROATIAN NATIONALISM.
X--SLOWER PROGRESS CN ECONOMIC REFORM. THE DEMONSTRATIONSEFFORTS BY PREMIER MARKOVlC'S NEW GOVERNMENT TOECONOMIC REFORMS. THEY PROBABLY WILL ALSO CONFIDENCE 0' PRIVATE Wtf.TfRN CREATORS iN THE COUBlfiJ"r
Original document.
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