ynOC fan directorate of intelligence
9
Yugoslavia's Sorb-Albanian Dispute: Who Is Violating Whose Human Rights?
Summary
Serbian claims that ethnic Albanian* are systematically violating Serbian human rights In ethnically troubleO Kosovo Province are. In our vtevr. largely unfounded. While Serbs are subject to some harassment, the evidence falls to suggest widespread, nationalist!cally-motivated abuses promoted or tolerated by the province's ethnic Aioanlan authorities. Serbian officials and media are advancing these claims atar: to duciedttnr-nd justify stronger Serbian Influence In the province. *J ^
By contrast Kosovo Albanians are largely justified In claiming that provincial authorities, under strong Serbian and federal pressure, are abridging the basic rights of Albanians eceorded all other Yugoslav athnk groups. Including freedom ot .speech, assembly, end self-determination Albanians In the neighboring Republic of Macedonia are subject to even more blatant human rights violations, including destruction of property, the banning of Albaniananguage of Instruction In the schools, cultural end religious restrictions, and aggressive prosecution for peaceful protests. M
Wa expect that abuses of Albanian rights will grow in the next vcar or two as Serbia makes some headwey In Its efforts to further restrict Kosovo Albanian autonomy and Macedonians grow more fearful that their republic's fast-growing Albanian minority threatens their control. These abuses are likely to provoke wider ethnic Albanian protests In Yugoslavia and the West, US and other Western demarches on behalf of Albanian rights will probably have little or no Impact Political instability in Kesovo ana Macedonia will -cmnue it about current levels whether the rights abuses continue or are eased aaa
Discussion
Interethnic Rivalries Fueling Human Rights Allegations
Growing tensions between ethnic Albanians and Slavic groups in Yugoslavia's Kosovo Province are leading to sharper mutual recriminations or human nghts abuses. Theare mainly Eastern Orthodox Serb* hut u the much less numerous but ethnically similarthey are being pushed out ot their ancestral homeland ol Kosovoargely Muslim Albanian populace with an alien language and vastly different culture While the Slavs tor many centuries were politically dominant in Kosovo, the Albanians in recent decades have surpassed mem in numbers and now account to. more thanercent of Kosovo's population. Since the late IQftOs. Albanians have become the main political force in the province and have used this strength to increase Kosovo's independence from Serbia, of which ii is anprovince' under Yugoslavia's federal constitution.
During the past two years, however, the Slavs have sought to reverse their fortunes under the influence of Serbia's dynamic and controversial Communist Party chief Slobodan Milosevic. Milosevic has tried to expand the role of both locel Slavs and Serbia Itself In Kosovo as panroader effort to Increase Serbia's voice In the country and Increase his national prominence. Milosevic has had someinstance, in removing some prominent Kosovo Albanian leaders inesult the Albanians have become Increasingly frustrated end resentful M V
The ethnic conflict is also effecting Yugoslavia's relations with other countries. Including ihe United States Belgrade has grown increasingly sensitive over the activity of Albanian and other ethnic emigre groups In the West. It believes that these groups are seeking to undermine Its international image by raising human rights concerns with Western governments, it also charges that tney are carrying out propaganda and in some cases even terrorist activities against the regime. The Yugoslavs, for instance, recently delivered an unusual demarche to the US. in both Belgrade and Washington, over an official US contact with emigre representatives. Belgrade .is likely to remain at least as sensitive in the coming months h. as we expect, ethnicosovo and elsewhere continue to deepen, i B
Serb Allegations Against AlbaniansLargely Unfounded
We believe that the bulk ol Serb and Montenegrin human rights allegations against the Kosovoput forth mainly by Serb emigre groups in the Wast. Serbian officials, and the Milosevic-controlled Serbianunfounded The Sams allege that the Albanians areampaign of terrorism- and 'genocide-against Kosovo Slavs, tolerated or even encouraged by the province's mainly Albanian euthoritlas. This campaign allegedly includes rape, arson, murder, assault, grave desecration, vandalism, and other acts to force Serb and Montenegrin emigration from ihe province. Even informed Slavs apparently believe these allegations, and some Albanian harassment does take place. However, the charges stem morelimate of fear fueled by sensationalized Serbian press accounts than from concerted, national st icelty-inaptred Aibaruan abuses Serbia, moreover, is exploiting the charges to :redit Kosovo Albanian leaders andtronger Serbian role in the province.
Rape. Seiblan charges that Albanians are IraoAienily raping Serbian woman lo frighten me Serbs Info leaving Kosovo are grossly exaggerated. Kosovo police statistics indicate that26 Albanians reportedly *apederbian women and that only one rapeerbian woman by an Albanian took place. Provincial police statistics further Indicate Serbian women ere nine times more likely to be rapederb than by an Albanian. While Kosovo ponce statistics are sometimes incomplete and sporadic, we behove these date are largely valid because the Serbs would be quick to publicize spectre cases of authorities' covering up an mterethnic raoe Moreover federal end Serbian security officials have kept Knsovo police unuur close scrutiny since major Albanian rioting1 and have offered tew it any data luntradlctlng the Kosovo official iiatisocs ^fjHHJHjB
Arson. Available evidence refutes Serbian allegations that Albanians are systematically attempting to sei fire to Serbian homes and crops. According lo Yugoslav press reports, the Kosovo police did notlngl* fire leiiberateiy set by Albanians againsteriod during which tney investigatedercent otires reported. In the same period, onlyercent of the fires in Kosovo occurred on Serb or Montenegrin property, toughly equivalent to their proportion ol the Kosovo population. The most celebrated case of alleged arson in Kosovo--ot the historic Serbian Orthodox monastery mfound to be due to faulty wklng. Thisommon cause of fires In Kosovo, and wo believe Serbian andlederal authorities would have discovered evidence ot arson if it In fact existed, 'oeoaaaa*
Murder idespread perception among Serbs and other Yugoslavs that tne lives of Kosovo Serbs and Montenegrins are often in jeopardy. Kosovo police statistics refloc! no Interethnlc murders 2eports indicate two murders of Slavs by Albanians, as well as two of Albanians by Slevs. Serbian and federal police have offered no contradictory data. Albanians, meanwhile, continue to murder one another at high rates, police recordeduch murders Inonths of3fi.* tjj
Assault Police data from8ssaults by Albanians on Serbs and Montenegrins. The data do not indicate the seriousness of the assaults, suggesting that an assault could constitute anythinghoveerious altercation. The police statistics also counteparatef which only three instances are listed. We believe that the rate of assaults ol Albanians against Slevs in Kosovo--aboutonth-"may be high enough to fuel insecurity among Slavs but is too low toampaign. Moreover, while data on Albanian-Albanian assaults is limited, police reports indicatettempted murders of Albanians by Albanians from This reflects an Albanian tiadlllon of blood feuds and violence to resofve disputes and suggests the frequency of Albanian-Albanian assault is much higher than Albanian-Serb obobbebeeeb
Grave Desecration. Vandalism. Tharc appearse at least noma validity to Serbian charges that Albanianseast occasionally desecrate Serbian gravesites local police records show IS instancesnd more may go unreported Contrary to Serbian statements, however, the motivation tor most such desecrations probably is more youthful mischief than nationalist provocations. Sorbs lavish meticulous care and attention on their cemeteries as pan of their religious ana cultural tradition Albanians, by contrast, nave little sdccmi 'ogera tor even tr>air own graveyards and often leave tnem overgrown and uncared for. Albanian children have been observed to vandal'ze property^nd animals loi amusement with no regard to the ethnic affiliation ol the wnflB
Forced Emigration and Land Sates. Up to several
Montenegrins emigrate from Kosovo to Serbia and other parts of Yugoslavia each year.
according lo official data. While many emigrams undoubtedly leave because of realharassment, we believe the fa. greater proportion leave because ol lack ofbleak economicosovo. Kosovo's unemployment rate--at aboutmore than double the national average ofercent. Kosovo also ranksnear the bottom of the list of most other Yugoslav economic Indicators-mat Albanians ere buying up Serbian land as peneliberate effortSerb emigration also seem invalid. In our view. Demand for landAlbanians is enormous. Albanian population growth is the highest in Europeheeds ol household, bvome lo,
esc* son.rortion of Ko-uvo Albanians underoars of age. the bracket most Hkfiy to enter We home market, is more thanercent Moreover. Albanians are often able to pay Serbs high prices tn Western currency earned as guesi workers in Western Europe Serbs know that they can sell tor top dollar and lake advantage of specialolicy of incentives intended to reverse Se'b emigrationfe,.nc-tate-owned apartmentob to emigres who return to Kosovo.
of most
osovo Albanianso gam UieTitfjnjn rights and relative autonomyYugoslav groups rather man secession '
Sedition. Subversion. We also believe Serbs are largely .ncorrect in charging Kosovo Albanian political agitation is inspired, aided, and possibly directed by neighboring Albania and hostile Albanian emigre groups who want to promote the eventual union of Yugoslav Albanian lands with Albania. Tirana probably gathers Intelligence tn Kosovo, and emigre groups almost certainly provide some coven suppon for subversive activities However, we believe any outside aid and direction tn Knnnun
We believe the evidence largely bears out Kosovo Albanian assertions thet provincial authorities, under strong Serbian and federal pressure, are depriving them of basic rights accorded to other Yugoslav ethnic groups and stipulated by the CSCE agreements to which Yugoslaviaignatory party. Indeod, these infringements have become moreecent years as the human and political rights picture In other Yugoslav regions has moved closer to West European norms The foUow.ng are the main abuses
Freedom of Speech. Albanians continue to be imprisoned In far greater numbors than other Yugoslavs for criticisms that local authorrt.es interpret as subversive Ofugoslavs sentencedor felonious anti-regime or nationalistic. or about two-thirds, were from Kosovo and the vast majority of these were Aiaanlens. Overall, according to police statistics and other reporting,lbumens heve been sentenced for both felony and misdemeanor-level enti-reglme statements. While most of these sentences on Albanians are handed down in Kosovo courts by ethnic Albanian judges, these judicial authorities are under much greater pressure from ledeial and Serbian authorities than Is the case in other republics to mete out tough sentences for relatively minor Infractions. Convictions for political enmes representereenr of the crimes eomm.iiedimes the notional averagej
Freedom of Assembly. The nght Qf Albanians to peaceably assemble remains more constrained than for any other Yugoslav ethnic group For more than seven years after ihe igat riots, the threat of imprisonment stifled Albanian demonstrations ontrast.. ethnic Serbs and Montenegrins demonstrated throughout Kosovo, sometimes daily, without sanction. Oemonsiratlons by other ethnic groupsariety of causes also were tolerated in this period in every other Yugoslav region vember. for the
flrnlbanian) demonstrated lor severalhe Kosovo capital ol Pristine end other towns following ihe forced resignation o* two popular Albanian leaders. Federal and Kosovo authorities subsequently denounced the demonstrations end Indirectly threatened military Intervention while imposing an explicit ban on new gatherings In Kosovo. The ben has been successfully circumvented In several instances, for example, when several hundred workers earlier this month protested further sanctions against the deposed leaders. Nonetheless, we believe that Kosovo and other authorities would repress any new large-scale Albanian demon sua Hons or repeated 'in attempts to stage smaller-seaiei as me latest workers' protest.
Bight to Self-Determination. Albanians havo lower rights to self-determination than any other Yugoslav ethnic group, includingas Montenegrins. Macedonians, andare smaller In number. Autonomous province' status ir-ltially gave Kosovo's Albanians the potential tonearly the same rights as enioyed by republics to control governmental and other institutions However,teadily growing Serbian and federal oversight has narrowed the exercise ot these rights in practice. Moreover. Serbian leader Milosevic currently is seeking to revise the republic's constitution to further narrow provincial tights to Include Serbian oyerjuuhtiof the (udiclal and security systems and of educational and cultural institutions .flHHV
Macedonian Abuses of Albanian RightsEven mere Severe
Even more blatant than the abridgement of Albanian rights in Kosovo has been the violation of these rights In the neighbonng Republic of Macedonre. where the Albaniansrowing minority (currently more thanercent) of the region's two million inhebitants. The Slavic Macedonian authorities, concerned to maintain their ethnic predominance In the republic, haveeries of laws awd used other practices to
recent trrfrlf^eT^lJTJ^
o Destroying traditional walls around many Albanian homes, and severely restricting the sele of property to Albanians, particularly In Ohrld end the capital of Skopje, where many Albanians Pve;
o Demolishinglbanian homes innd scheduling the destructionore homes, which will0 Albanians homeless;
o Forbidding Albanian as the primary language of Instruction in mainly Albanian schools, banning morelbanian-language textbooks,lbanian language teachers over the last year, andther Albanian teachers for such infractions es keeping their class dienes in Albanian:
o Prosecutinglbanians, including four minors, for peacefully protesting the above government actions last year, resulting1 year prison sentences for the demonstrations: expelling from school IB other Albanians toi such protests: and sentencingther Albaniansday tail sentences for misdemeanor-level anti-regime statements
o Persecuting Ihe predominantly Albanian Muslim communityexample, by prosecuting thernrisquo leadership in the town of Kumanovo for religious education of children. tM
eBB^r.
Outlookreater Abuses of Albanians Ahead
wit anticipate that the human and political lights ol Kosovo's ethnic Serbs will remain largely intact despite their growing rjiscomlort about being overwhelmed by an Increasingly Albanian population Meanwhile. Albanians will suffer further--and possibly increasingly severe--human 'ights abuses. We expect that Serbia will make someurther narrowing Kosovo's provincial autonomy, using Ihe alleged hertassmcnl of Kosovo Serbsustification for their actions, end thereby worsen at least moderately current infringements on freedom of speech, assembly, and self-determination tor Albanians. The likely abolition ofrom the Yugoslav penal code, which stipulates imprisonment for anti-regime statements, will not reduce the abuses In Kosovo, as thinna article used to punish Allidi.ians or such critisisms Serbia also will probably ii.akegains In maneuvering more pliant Albanians into positions ol authority, mandating greater use of ihe Serbian language in mainly Albanian schools end in solution a. restricting some otner Albanian outlets of cultural expression, and maintaining adequate pressure--including ^xfutti of military intervention" on Kosovo authorities to reduce de facto Albanian ion-rule.fl|
In Macedonia, we expect violations of Albanian human rights to become even more bletsnt as the Albanian population continues to grow and challenge Macedonian ethnic predominance. The Macedonians may use toning laws even more aggressively to try to expet Albanians 'romnd other towns.
US Optionsittle Impact Likely
believe that any US and other Western demarches and other expressions of concern to the Yugoslavs un behall of Albanian rights, white consistent with the US policy of upholding human rights, will have minimal impact on the actions of loderel and provincial authorities. Serbian officials almost certainly will suspect that hostile Albanian emigres ere seeking to manipulate official US actions toward Kosovo Macedonian authorities win strongly resist any Intervention in their affairs. Federal authorities, even if well-intentioned, will probably remain too weak to enforce human rights policy changes on these roglonal governments. We also believe there Is some risk Western actions may be counterproductive If federal authorities misconstrue them, possibly lessening Yugoslav responsiveness on other US concerns jj| ^
The US Interest in Yugoslav stability will fsce st least moderate risks whether or not the abuses ot Albanian rights continue. Increasing repression in Kosovo and Macedonia will lead to further Albanian resistance, which could become Increasingly organized or violent. Easing the repression will lead to Increased expressions of ethnic Albanian political asserttvaness. This would aggravate Serbian and Macedonian insecurities, increase agitation by Slavic groups, and possiblyiolent backlash.
Original document.
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