7KN-SOCOKTKACI-
KQN
Perspectives on Growin Social Tension in China
Judgments
9
mrf fitrpo*1
of Ihc last several months have cast doubt on China's ability to :the social strains that accompany reform and modernization inCommunist country. Student protests in April and Maytheir demands for greater freedom and politicalf the widening gulf between an urbanbent on fundamental changeegime lhat appears to befrom its earlier reform activism. But there are other symptoms ofin Chinese society. These
exist.
Increases in worker protests and striken In ihe 6rst half of JJ ample, there were^rcporicd stria
in an economy in which labor unrest officially
Serious friction between groups lhat have not'bine/it ed equallyIncome disparities between individuals and regions havesensitive'.
A resurgence In the countryside of disputes over land and water rights, among other issues,evival, despite strong officialof traditional customs that betrays an opposition to changeopular preference by some peasants for China's old mores. Some of ihese, like elaborate weddingi and Minerals, are frowned on as wasteful; others, like the preference for male children, are discouraged because they reflect "feudal" attitudes that hinder modernization;ew-such as certain millenarianseen as direct challenges to oartv authority.
We believe these developments
' m* *
Growmg social disorder has slowed Chinas reform program by discredil-in6 fcforn^djcic^ndprovio^inE ammunition lo conservativer reform 1
79
etback for reform policies. Ironically, over lhe long runfrom reform is likely to exacerbate tensions by denyingtbe economic gains to which they have grown accustomedlast
The management of these tensions is complicated by the fact that reform during tbe last decade has cost Beijing many of iu traditional levers ofFor example, increased local autonomy over financial matters, the decentralization of economic decision making,eduction in the number of inducements tbe party canas unique access to scarce consumer goodsoodmade it difficult for Beijing to smooth over the manifestations of social disorder by applying sanctions or offering rewards. This, and the government's inability to address the root causes of crime and corruption, has added to popular disaffection with the regime. Beijing's apparent impotence is one powerful factor io the party's loss of prestige, we believe, and challenges tbe party's legitimacy and ability to rale effectivdy over the long run.
Reformers wdl remain vulnerable to charges that their policies have social discipline and given away party authority withoutother methods of handling social conflict
v f"
.
[ Modernising these institutions may lake decades, ho^vcrTjggeS? Jia is headedong period of social unrest. Because the reformers lack the tools to ease discontent or substantially reduce corruption, the appeal of adopting more repressive measures to deal with tbenhappy workers, and students is likely to grow. At the very least, social disorder will make ^increasingly difficult for reformers to carry out their policy agenda.
Although social disorder could preclude advancement of China's reform program, we do not believe any likely alternative leadership would seek to reverse the policy of opening to theore conservative leadership might seek to distance rtsdf somewhat from the United Slates. Iu policies would probably affect foreign investment negatively, as would heightened concern by foreign businessmen about stability and the newntentions.
With orew leadership, seriou* problems with social order could hamper Beijing's efforts to raise its International profile. Fears of the elTecu of instability on Chinese foreign policyclose to the
il
Perspectives on Growini Social Tension in China
Reactions Io Reform
in ia cocruplroo and crime, friction over income disparities, inielkctDal dojKkoce. increaied rural vio-knce, and widespreadto lomninew directives all testify to Increasing strains Ia China'i social fa" "
[Urban llni
and. in ihe case of iheolicies. Fear of inflation has sparked noi only protean bai abo waves of panic buying and boarding lhat. accordingress accounts, are lhe worst Inears
The most vivid recent example of social unrest ia (he wave of student protests In Beijing and several other cities following ihe death of reform leader Hu Yac-bang ia April andsing Hus deathretext, students staged several weeks of peaceful, but illegal, denvonstradons. Potters appeared demanding more reform, especially political freedom and greater
leaders"etitaoo supporting tbe ttadenta, aad on several occa-
theiodeois made an ai tempt lo enter tbe guarded compound .here top live ai "
Even before the recent demonttraiioni, there wit growing evidence thai social disorder was stowing Chinas reform program. Despite repeated announce-menu over ihe past Ave years that It was aboutackle price reform, for cxampk, Beijing hi link progress toward this goal|
Syaapteeaa af Sects! Dttaetlar Cetnauoaa
Pervasive corruption has emerged as perhaps the most aenaltrve source of popular disaffection, and it was foremost among the complaints of Bojjirig's sludent
cuts across rural-urban iir.esanes, such as mflatsoa, do not. For example, higher food prices benefit peasants, and preaa reports radiate thai peasants blame increases ror many of tbt urban-produced items tbey bay rurh as fertiliier-cceTaption lhan oa inflatioe ia tbe economyI
Orcaice opportunities to acq.ire and spendabsent in prereformledexplosion in corrupt practices tuck asaccording to
black-markeicee complaining, ironically, that ihe coat of greasing palms was cutting into his profiii
impating noneiutenifor busmcurintport. ind the like. InS angry peasant*ilogram of spoiled milkounty government building after authorities ignored Ibcir plcai for prelection againil local village ofBciab who bad imposed an illegal loll ofa another province farmcra rimed and took fertiDzer from stile itorchouKi when ihey discoveredocal official had diverted fertilizer supplies lo bil -family. Numerous preu ariidca complain that ihe net effect of such corrupt practicea hai often been to itymie local economic Initiative and even force prom-Ming enterprises Inloimperiling reform implementation
Corruption ii not confined to the lower levels of the party end government |
JPerhaps no form ofore pervasive or difficult to eradicate thanractice wdl entrenched in Chinese
iu periodic antkrimc campaigns, inbererrestsath of public senienc-ing rallies and ciccuiloas. Wc have delected little evidence Out ibeaving much effect. The authorities' appiren! Inability to ball the rise in crime is another cause of popular disenchantment and, we believe, evidence of slipping social control- In our view, worsening crime and corruption result, infrom Ihe appearanceUu of duenfran-chiiedmany of them unemployed workers orpeasants whom tbe diilocaiions of reformbrought to Iheice themselves at having mimed om onc nenu
Securiiy officiib and some party leaden have blamed the growtii In crime on reformlhe openinghe outside, lhe loosening of controls on internal travel, and the encourage memconomic activity!
one of tbe reason* we"beUeve party" turned on tbe late former pany Genera) Secretary Hb Yaobang4 was lhal he went after members of Iheir families for corruption. The growth ofwe believe, feeds public cynicism snd apathy, weakening faith In and luppon for reform and reform leaders. Comments by both ordinary Chinese and intellectuals reflect growing doubu_aboul tbe pany's ability lo rid itself of the corrupt!
Crlast
China hasharp upswing in crime over the pan few yoars. According io Chinese Government data, ihc number of major cases, inch as murder and srmed robbery, increased8 byerceal over7 level. Even more worrisome io officials is the increase in the proportion of crime committed byJl pcrcenl into overercentciang hu reactedUuncfcng araxher of
Feeling Ihe heat from critlciun aboul lhe crime rale, reformers have fell compelled lo approve rcprcasivc meaiureshow they are "tough onhich tends io alarm and alienate some supporters. China's legal code ii vague, and Its courtdocs not exercise conlrol over the police and other securityu new and weak. Securiiy forces, therefore, have capital!oa crime crackdowns in order io stretch the definition ofeconomicto enhance ihelr own power andreform initiatives, auch as the Is yon* of surplustbey fearhreat lo public
3
Tbe Onset of the -pcflrttaes* Slyle
Crowing income disparities, especially in ibe country side, have sparked numerous attacks by mobs on prosperous farmers andem Is t
The Chinese media have publicized the creation of SWAT teams, probablyarningotentialrotestera. In8 the Stale Council took the extraordinary step of ordering police into some fac*
workers.
roremott worry for China's leaders Is probablytbey pcrccm as ibe "Polishbin dmoRie.iiossible rruniagc of political fiicAcc beiween workers and students of the ton inn has occurred in Poland in rcccai years and shaken the leadership In Warsaw. Allhougherceni of China's population lives in Ibe countryside, the cilics are snore sensitive politicallyt easier (or di icon ten tod urbanltcsress iheir dissatisfaction actively.oncentrated population, many one* have an ankalate core of dissidents whose proles is canatalyst forwhen workers' complaints are quite different who can provide leadership and organizai
Perhaps nothing worries reform leaders more, in our judgment, than such protca.it spiral ing out or control and igniting wider unreal]
There arc other, longer term sources of tcsuica be-iwccn Beijing and ibe workers. Although workers benefited from early reforms, many feel threatened by; thai were designed to increase indut-and productivity by ending guaranteedlifetime employment, trimming bloated factory work forces, lying wagesroductivity, and ckuini suie enter prises that chronically operate
JNoi surprising!,
nons io increase producimty under thesehave triggered friction between faciory
sensitrvitv. in our judgment.
' *mushroomdid6 and again in April and MaynumberI
.
Fang Uzfci. the Quacsc aoun terpen to Soviet diau-deal Andrei Sakiarov. huanicular thora la lhe reforuscn' aide. His speecheshwtiiy campuses, calling for multiparty democracy, helped ignite Use massive student densonstrationshat touchedacklash and contributed loSecretary Hu Yaobangs downfall and theagainst "bourgeoison recently, according lo press accounts. Fang embarrassedwhile visillng Hong Kong by crilicl-Jn| the cor-rupt activities of the children of some of China's lopauthoritiesevoke hb travel rights, si least temporarily
eteriorate
Ceencaicauag the rise ofrime, worker unrest, and student activism is tbe fact that reform bu brought about changes that bare undermined pan, control and weakened thebility to manage social tensions. Agricultural reforms, for eaample. have resultedecline In the number and power of rural cadres, leaving the parly with fewer and leu direct economic levers over (he peasantry. RefoTO-sponsored devolution of power to localand businessmen has led to "economicocalities have become increasingly Inde-pendeni of. and unresponsive to, central authorities. Urban party officials have abo lostover job and bousing assignments, wages, and which tbey have traditionally maaipuUtedge compliance, ln effect, the party flnds kaeUwitli fewer carrots and only big sticks to i
lU hit,
China and Oihrr Cemmuaiit
knit movement of Intellectuals ond workers pressed tht party to Introduce political reforms and greatrr personal freedoms, but Deng Xiaoping crushed the movement after It had served his political purposes. More recently, students and Intellectuals have pushed for broadand there have been major undent demonstrations almost annually since
im
Unlike eastern Europe's ruling parties, the Chinese Communist Party has not had to contend
challenge to Its authority by any well-organised group like Solidarity, nor has it been split by major ethnic divisions the way Yugoslavia has. Nor does China face the kind of threat to its Internal stability from separatist nationalist groups that the Soviet Union does. ChinasTibetans. Ulghurs, Mongols, end more than iOtoo
opost athreat; theythe democracy-wall critics nor later dissi-
up onlyercent of the population. Thehowever, ha* been particularly well orga-
Chinesesecurity services have been very effec-
reuon that could serveallying point, asat Identifying leaders end Intimidating
Catholic Church has done In Poland. Thtespecially among the students. Despite
excrpnon Is the Buddhist priesthood in Tibet,discontent, urban worktrs have not tried
receives support and encouragement fromabor movement like Solidarity to rival
overnmenl-ln-exilt in India. Althoughofficial unions.onsequence laboroutbreaks of violence among minorities are- "has so far been limited to sporadic, scattered strikes
tttety to continue, we believe there Is nearwork slowdowns that, while worrying to the
among the leadership, and thus the Issue,lacks tht politically threatening content
troublesome. Is not politically threaten! ntfM its Polish counter.
China's small Intellectual tlite has been perhaps the most important and certainly the most vocal source of dissent during the past decade. In the, during China's so-called democracy-wall period, a
believe (he opening up of Chineseintended to win popular supportore dimcult for Beijing to use coercion to impose ils will. Over the put few rears people havereater tendency to resist suchure, for example, by appealing to newspapers or igher level officials and using the banner of reform to make iheir case. To reformers' chagrin,whose status Deng Xiaoping and other reform leaders have sought to enhance, have become more critical not only of party ideologues but abo of tbe reform leadership and its policies as well. Slipping central control is evident in students' defiance of explicit prohibitions against demons! rai ions, for
Further, tbe party no longer commands the moral authority it once did. ln our judgment, tbe Cultural Revolution hasegacy of bitterness and dmllu-ticrnmem with ibe party and Communist ideology that reformers have not been able to overcome. Despite reform, we believe the party's legitimacy has been so corroded over the past few years by corruption. Inept management, and abuses of privilege that theloots of exhortation aad persuasion have lost much o( their for
ime-Honored Truths
Ike/iff Intellectual atmosphere under reform. Chine's Intelave begun to ask. and lo discussumber of interfiling. disturbing,some tn thethreatening questionshe Initial burst of enthusiasm,shortcomings. China's continuing massive
Inittlectuah have all combined Introspection and Questioning.
titration series.Elegy.explored this theme, mttng the Yellow Riveretaphor for Chinese culture, amiesponsive chord among man, Chinese "ho. It seems to us. are hungry for answers to the Questions lhe program raised, it alsoprerlpl-taied strong but contradictory reactions from Chinese
series dramatically argues that traditionalcultureerious obstacle to Chine's modernisation and callshange in viewpoint. Orer images cf the rtree and the see. the piece calls for China to abandon Its continental. Inward-looking pasi and open up to the world, modernise lu political
One Question thai stubbornly reappears Is whether Uarxiim Is any longer an appropriate philosophy for China. Taking reform rhetoric about adapting to presenttep furthern moil reformist party leader, feel comfortable with, younger Intellectuals hax raised the Question about whether
capitalism. Implicitly, the series attacksears of Communist rule far falling to free China of IU post. "River Elegy" Is perhaps ihe most striking and poellc expression of Ihe dissatisfactions and doubts of many Chlnete_as their country enters lis second decode of rej'orI
China should simply admit that Communism ha,tructure and cultural concepts, and embrace such radicals look to capitalism ond Western ideas as capitalism. In
Us day. Some of these
s ihrlr i
it
democracy, someearchocialist solution In words lhat echo the reform slogan "social-Ism with Chinese characteristics,"but what they hare in commonejection of the political forms of Communism and the st ale-centered economic model inheritedfrom ihe Soviet UmOnl
Other Intellectuals are asking whetherlffi cultles stem not Just from misguided Communism, bul rather from flaws In Chineseecent
[government official! arc increasingly wBltni to resist, or even challenge centrsl policy.
ankles, and even published Chinese opinion pS*Tj indicate thai man, people no longer believe Ihe party's promises, are cynical about tbe imeniicuu of many party leaders, and doubt the ability of those leaders tbey do iruU lo deliver.party cadres and
tee tto Referaarn
Tto Ha ears' of PuaMauj Tua Hard
On top of the problems of overhaulingt system. Chinese reformerso deal with challenge ofoor, backward, and i
Font Ulkl. aiu tfCklma'ileadtmi
arch Fanr atitkm
i->tf< imonly for PofUhml flUvwt, M
cajasBajja.
many areas still very traditional Third World society. We believe that many in the leadmhipjecngnizc that this process is difficult and du
Some reform policies clash head-on wlih traditional values. Strong cultural factors, as well aa economic pressures, operate against cRorts to control the popw-I* lion, for example, oregislate improvements in Ihc status of women. As peasants have become wealthy enough to pay the fines, many have simply ignored family-tire restrictions or ham resortedariety of stratagems to have moreing bribing local family planning officials orhild outside their home district. Local officials la
some areas who have been loo zealous in enforcing ihe policy have been beaten or even murdered. Allhough reform leaders recognize ihe obvious consequences of ihii policy's failing, ihey have had no choice over lhe past few years but to relax reatrrctions in rural areas because ihey have proved unenforceable
Party leaders regularly denounce these traditional attitndes ashe Sixih Plenum document on ideology6 denxed considerable space tomeasure of the frustration within lhe leadership over tbe impediment traditionalismto pose to lhe modernization drive. But thus far tbe onslaught on traditional values appeara to have generated more resentment lhan anything else.some reforms have actually contributedesurgence of traditionalarcinnocuous, such at lavish spending on funerab and weddings, bui others pose more serious threats to reform goals and social stability (see
One traditional criterion for deciding what group should controlonfrontation in the,olice and soldiers had to be sent in io break up fighting between two clans in south China: the elani had even fortified and provisioned their villages. Local party cadres were ringleaders in the dispute, which probably centered on land aad water rights. This kind cf rural violence was once oommon In traditional societycomprehensive Information on such events la hard to cometo be on theesult. In large part, of the growth In eccHVxniccompetiticn after tbe dismanUing of the communes
This resurgence of "feudalism" has not onlyource of some embarrassment to reform leaders but also provides ammunition for critics seekingcim-poac tighter controls aad ideological education on ihe pocwUlioc. Arguments over how mach freedom to allow under reform, in our judgment, havethe core of many differences between reform actrvtsti and more ortbodos party leaders, and have figured prominently in the political infighilag la Beijing unce Deng begin bis reformi flfJHft
Ik, Peril it once af Traditional Ways
strength of premodern attitudeshuge task modernism face in China.of lhe modernisation process have pointedsevere tensions generatedocietyoff
[There Jar more dWeuIt mVocument than those of Inflation, but the threat in this kind of social tension is real. In our opinion, and harder to manage
Some customs that linger art relatively benign Lav Ish weddings and funerals, although decried as wasteful, do not seriously threaten the reformThey do. however, provide an avenue for corruption tn the form of -donations" to weddings or funerals In well-connectedelatedbuilding tombs, not only uses up scarce land but can also lead lo violence as villages or Individuals contend for especially auspicious sites. Perhaps equally Important, the popularity of such folkways Is taken by some leaders as an affront to socialist values and as resistance to the scientific outlook that socialism claims for its
Other cultural legaciesore direct threat to central goals, and. In some coses,hallenge to officialase in point is the traditional altitude toward women and children. According to Chinese press, there hare been at least two well-organiied rings trading In women. This went beyond
prostitution to the actualet least one case,illage market with local officialwomen as servants or wives. There have been numerous eases of selling children at well, and In poor areas female Infanticide still occurs. Belling has tried to stop such practices through legal penalties and education, but In many arras we believe that these efforts havefailedM
Chinese leaders are also much concerned about the resurgence of superstition. At various limes the press has tried to explain the difference between religion and superstition, but the operative difference seems to be whether the activities are seenhreat to either production or social order. For Instance, people claiming to be reincarnations of mythical figures such as the Queen of the Western Heaven, returned to Earth toew order, have been executed as counterrevolutionaries. Mindful of Chinas longof peasant rebellions led by such messianic fiiures. Beijing does not treat these Incidents lightly.
Academic research and press evidence Indicate lhal localism, sometimes based on clan Identity, has strengthened since reform. Echoes of lhe past, like crop-protection societies-groups of vigilanteste proeett fields fromavel Isstervillage clashes are on the lis.
rebut these arguments by laying ihai the pollciee of ihe pail are proven failures. Wilhin reform-litumber of proposals hove been floatedddress some of ihe most serious problems, bui so far no coherent approach has emerged and results are miied ai best. For esimple, some supportocial insurance system independent of the factoriesay of reducing worker Tears of
T*ho.evt MirKCrm therefore, some adviser* hold that the erUNrsnmem of
an efficient ta* system, perhapscomWncd wilhreform, should come
To reduce corruption, reformat political theoriiti have been trying, to design an effective, and at leastIndependent, legal system to prosecute ceftctab. Other reformat thinkers see price reform-which would end the two-tier price system lhat fosters
flf" < J'rtfJiirirtuf.'Vfi
W*trc&dal iluwattitifm.rltK vrraarrifer afuiral (irH)amJa hhhr.^sj-
blackprimary. While men reformer, accept thai all of these policies are desirable, (here is considerable confusion over priorities. As long as the drift continues, reformers will remain vulnerable to charges of failing to control Ihc bad effects of their prograr "*
The Haiard of PaaUesg Tea Utlit Damned if ihey push too bard, reformers arc abo damned if insufficient results generale widespreaddisappointmentopulation now used to the benefits of economic growth. Even though mostare belter oft* today thaneanariety
-ii-
now expect con'["never, gatns have leveled off and, in tome cases,n been lost. Chinese ofiViab acknowledged iahal the standard of Irving of overerceni of ihe urban population had dropped over lhe year because of
risingfueled, in cart, by reformers-promotion of high-tpowthurban prc lests evoked memories of tbe results of theofhat helped end Nationalist rule In China. The authorities moved quickly to rem in pricea ond reassure city dwellers, and their actions have had some calming effe
In some cases, moreover, people have come to resent what ihey perceive as inequities In reform. Urban workers, reacting io stories in ihe press about wealthy peasants building houses, for example, grumble thaiproletariat upon whom the revolution is theoreticallysuffering while peasants get rich. In fact, Chinese academic research shows lhat ihc urban-rural income disparity is actually greater
now.han Ii waihat is important politically, however, is not the fact but the .perception that reform it not benefiting urbanne recent pollertinent belief that "reform has only benefitedropoff in urban support for reform threatens to deprive its advocates of one of thejrmoit powerful arguments for moving forward.
Short-Term Outlook
In recent months the leadership has at critical pointsautious, go-slow approach to reformof popular discontent. IngggSpublk speeches
mcrous leaQers expressed the fear thnt slabiliTy's
Obviously these worries arc now Ootn mote intense and more generally shared than ever before; the urgency with which Beijing has sought to quell infla. tion, assuage onver corruption, and boostity measures has been an expression of ihese fears.
Beijing reacted to lhe threat of disorder first of all by retreating from some of tbe more controversialespecially pricewouldump in price. After the events of ihc summeredia campaign sought to reassure Chinese, especially city dwellers, that ihey would be shielded frori the worst effects of inflation AccordinggggS%press reports, the authorities arc bow pfenning wage bikes, increased subsidies,wo-yearii on raiting price* of key goods in response to the protests over inflation. Liberalizing press laws and increasing the use of local people's congresses ai sound ing boards for popularhave beenhelp veal public Irsta-rta WasTaV
Using popular discontentever, other reformers may push io open the political system further, givingreater sense of partidpation and,take in refo
Is China Up lo Mode nrt ration?
In our view, however, the leadershipough and potentially lengthy period of initability. Studenthave occurcd annuallynd the creation ce* stronger student organizations suggests they are almost certainesurface io tbe future. Tbe tour mood of urban workers it likely to worsen as Iheir living standards slip. Discontent among peasant farmers and rural enterprise workers, who stand to be hurt by Beijing's current austerity peskies. may also increase. Utiles* Beijing can curb inflation aad sustain rapid economiciswpl probably have to contend with increasing worker protests and strikes, new student protests, and tporad. ic outbreaks of vtole
Wc are not optimistic that the leadership can agreeourse of action that would ameliorate economicr even hat tbe prfbJcal will to lake on the powerful voted iaiercsu that would oppose rocentral-izing authority. Provincial leaders are unlikely to voluntarily give up the enormous power Beijing has granted ihem over the past decade. And we expect local party cadres to do little more than pay lipservice to Be mgs campaign against corruption. Urban workers, ia oar judgment, are also likely to resist any government attempt loeiling on wages and
bom
We believe Ihe moat likely threat to reforms under thesehai continued Intractablecombined with pervasive disillusionment aad widespread indifference and passive resistance toInitiatives, will weaken reformers' political position and provide ammunition to their opponents. Whether eccctomic troubles undercut the reformed politically or forte them to water down their program, severe social tensions arc likely ioerms-neni feature of Ihe Chinese political landscapcH
Secret*
Chinaistory, both ander ihc Communists and before, of upbeat hi in reaction lo (octal tensions Even if ihe current turmoil subsided, bad judgment on ihc pan of ibeerhaps combined with an event beyond iheir conlrol aucbecession, oould trigger another upheaval
I nijuci aa the
Wc consider it catremely unlikely lhal unrest in China would get io out of band lhat ll would bringeadership interested in returning lo tb* isolationist policies of Ihc past: tbe "open polky" Is, wcermanent pan of all leaders' foreign potky. Bul ii Is conceivable that disorder could bringolltkal rcalignmcnl in China thai would affect theof the policy. Many of the leaders whom wc place oa tbe more conservative side of the political spectrumistrust of Western Ideas and intentions lhal, we believe, could lead them to seek greater distance from the United Stele* Under these leaden, rnflitary and diplomatic relalions oould cool, although (he strength of Western technology, markets, andinstitutions would actrake on this tenden
ore traditional leadership, changes la Ibe economic climate could adversely affect irade and the investment picture for USeng, forhas suggest ad instituuag officii! controls on foreign investments to ensure ihai tbey arefavorable to China. Several of Ihc more traditional leaden arc lukewarm toward the strategy of ooasial development thai has fostered much of ihe foreign
' WW
Measures taken to control disorder could abo smother economy initiative. Their turbulent recent history has condnwned Chinese toUmpdown in one area
as presaging more sweeping measures orolicylampdown often leads toa slowdown In business activity!
in social aisorricr wouldecline investment as foreign busmen-men reacted to fears of instability Uarcst. especially in Ihc cities whereestment is centered, would exacerbate what isifficult investment environment
Penis tent serious dbiurbanocs and lhe dracooian measures China might take lo damp down on them could reawaken fears about China'sand predictability that would hamper China's Initiatives in the region We judge It probable thai some Southeast Asian it*tea, soch ai Malaysia andare already leery of Chineseworry lhat China's problems migbtbejrasneniited tohii p tilH
xcsaarily prevc
ll is conceivable that under ciiremcrustrated leadership could deliberately stir up icno-pbobta botbistrict tba populace and to transfer blame for China'shineae complaints that foreignen have incited trouble in Tibet and have encouraged Chinese ditiidcnii such as Fang Lirtu exemptifs thb tendency. Although we doubt thattrategy would ba very effective or persuasivedivesting alien uoo fromproblems that would not necnsa.ni) prevent ll from affecting China's foreign relai
12
Appendix
A Sampler of Social Teraiom
lilt below if noi exhaustiventended lo givemoling of incideau reflecting social lemions.
I9M
March
Aa manyeople riot in Lhasa daringfestival.
Age*
Authoritiesaoisthenyang for inciting her followers to murder.
Hundred, of workers altack passenger train In Guangdong.
Peasant* ia Hunan pushans of vegetables into municipal government building, proiesllng broken contract*.
May
Mob of Guangdong peasants storm* public securiiy bureau, freeing prisoners and burning riles.
Two hundred persons in Henaa attackcourt, beat sng ap IT police officer*.
Local authorities move against pirates on Ibe coast cf Zhejiang Province.
Sludents demonstrate al Beijing University forchange.
Police breaking ofeople involved in kldnappiofl young girls and telling them Into slavery; peasants who purchased one girl object lhat Ihey used legitimately earned money to buy her and, therefore, should not have to give her up.
Socoar riot ht Skbaan erupts, police take eight hours to restore order.
Thousands of armed police break up demonstrationeasant* protesting pollution of water supply for iheir nelds. ;
Xi'an taai drivers parade against corruption and discririusution against private operators.
Strike in Uacauag results in removal of incompetent factory manager.
I*
Mob in Gaastgdong attack* tai collectors sent to inspect local jewelry shops
Public security Vice Minister cites rise in ethak clashes and smuggling in border regions.
Morenicllectuali attend meetinglied political and intellectual freedoms and call for rchabiliution of Hu Vaobang.
Securiiy guard kills family-planning official whohim for having too many children.
Spending sprees, boarding, banknd peosest* against inbuoa force change in economk policy al leadership meeting*.
Four farmers arc killed when police intervene to break up attack by farmer* on local land office
S*frfeisuVr
Und dispute between local peasants and mining enterprise in Liaoning halts production.
Llaoning paper claims illegal "tana*'* force closure0 small businesses.
The Chineseoliticalommitteevidence offemale slavery, including involve mem ofcommittees in appro-ring contract*.
by Tibetan disasdents In Lhasa and Beyiof,
Sludeou al several campuses dcrnorsnratc against African student* and ipeclal privilege* for foreign student*.
Enraged depositorsport office* innil arcai after being denied catfa wlibdrawab becauac of new morsey-tightening mcuuics ordered by Beijing.
Clash between gram farmei* aad Aabui proviooal omcial* attempting to Nock export of grata tocoastal provinces leaves one fanner dead, two official, ia ie red.
Groan of prominent intellectual* sign leiter calling for amnesty for political prisoners
Hortsernad* bomb reponedly explode, on train In Henan.
March
itidependrnce dcrnoiaalralioru in Tibet lead lo Imposition of manial law there
April
Student demonstrations, beginning with the death of Hn Yaobang onib. continueonth. Protests in Beijingtudents to the streets; other demortstralions occur throughout China.
Police arrest mora than JO memberscouaterre-rolnticnary" sect called lhe -Universal SyceeThe group claimed to be followers of the founder of the Ming dynasty and planned toew
Ungdocn-
May
Sttsdent demonsiratMss eoniirswe.
Reporters, including fromtoial /VessuVi Daily.etition protesting cons rots oat their ability to report Ihe dernonstratioos accurately, cal for freedom.
Martialequired to restore order to Be(jlng.
f
Original document.
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