bS
UbymTCftOtJSl
Captibi lilies %JkWn,
Suuunary i
*i
haic, element of Libyan leader Mylmmir al-Qedhafts foreign coIkjsince be cam*owerrganizationally he haserrorist suppon apparatus that ce>nnc<i> cUuk securit* and inielugene* opertiwns with overseas structure* ihat focuipa tjisdsj, andsarr sappofl QaaJhaf. hu augmentedpparatus by bu.ldmg tie*idet groups In some cases be hat ceveioe-ed strong rxsrtdscw croups willing and able jo take action. -In otherrtore nebulous relationship enisls *mM t
Qadhnliomplex, yet HeKiblc. slatelargely on his personal relationship with his inner cn.lc olo support his terrorism
tne
ar*^
I We believe Ihat all Ihe departments aremponuve to Qadhafi and that nensahe authority to mount ope hi.ithout his sanctum
Through ih* varsrmracassmurarbis state apparatus. Qadhafi has. sought to organize*unce of radicaluLd lororni grout*onfront the United States and enhance his image as leader o< the oppressed Although this goal is beyond Libyan capabilities. Tripoli
3 9 4 1
Libya;gTcrtotisi
hasey element ofender Mu'ammai al-QadHarVt foreirtn policy tinea ha came to powere has formed an internal organic, lion to direct, support, and encourage terrorist opera-lion* by Libyan agcnti nndatherand enlist Iht supped of radicals worldw>de. O'er the years lhe lies lhat Qadhafi has developed to terrorist groups have mended Mt reach and increased his firepower. He nviy have achieved sufficient con. liedew of hb clients to allow him to male the choice of target anJ liming of an attack. Ills influence over others has probably (csullcd in several terrorist operations that have accorded with hit goals. aanV
Hack ground
Qldhan's commitment in (erroriim as an instrument of policy spans most ofyeai rule3 Qadhafi publicly offered lo help anywell at the Provisional Irish Republican ArmyRA) and the Mickmoven the Unitedto equip any Arab willing to stlike Israel. Later the same ytir he delivered on some of his promise* by giving sanctuaryhe Palestinian terror ills wlia massacred II Uraeli athletes during lhe Munreh Olympic Games Qadhafi dispatched his own agents to stiile Israeli targets as earlyhen five Libyans were arrestedthe international airport in Rome, where they planned to shorn down an Bl Alielhoulder-fired missile.7 Qadhafi pWted lo kill lhe US Ambassador loiis first known aitemptSaflcr assuring the new President. Jimmy Carter, lhatJa-mproie relations with Washington. Qad ha ft'* operatives began lo stalk Libyan dissidents in thean unsuccessful aittmpi
IO Overthrow thf^ttyiit IradtT^-and hiivri focused
primarily on ciiles since then, kilting at Iciitin
Qadhafi apparently decided to back moreindiscriminate atlacks by clients Tripoli provided passport* to Abu Nidal orc'niratron lANOj terrorists who aitaekedl ticket counter at ihe Vienna, airport ini In the spring.ef
I-juaAaihHBHkk^fMBVpK -' to the La Belle disco in Berlin, leading to the US_ ai.strihes on Tripoli and Banihwi on IS April.
The airairikcs stunned Qidhall and resulted in a pasm ofiokKC followederiod of quiescence.-Umlieays after lhc suites,i'. linkedumber ol ictrorisl attacks:
iLibyan involve -men( In (he shooting oft US Embassyin Khartoum onpril.
British Foreign Secretary Mow* publicly linked Libya to the murder of two Hiltiili teachers and one US hostage inApni.
Two Libyans were apprehended onpril as ihey attempted to attack thc US officers dub in Ankara with handcrcnades obtained from the LibyanBureau (LPDI IhcrerThe Libyansihey had been instructed to cause Ihc maaimuin number of otualtles, especially among women and children.
may haveale in the shooting in Sum.S Embassy communicator onpril
The Invcl of Libyan terrorist activity fell drama tiesJS April. The reduction was probably ihcseveral factors,r
ptcoeeupalionibya's internal
The fear thai too
Libyan linksterrorot clients wcr
9
Libya: Terrorism-Relnied Etenlt
Orerihrows Kill Idrii
rteoriedly orders iht tom-
mondrr of ai Egypt/on submarine lie-Honed In Libya lo sink she QEI Presi-dem Sadai countermands the order.
alttmpl loarmer
member of Qadhafi's inner circle who attempted io overthrow him
plot to kill US Ambassador lo
Egypt uncovered
publicly announces atidissi-
dtnl campaign.
US Emlrassy In Tripoli otiacked.
two US diplomats withdrawn
from Tripoli.
French and Tunisian Embassies in Tripoli jacked and burned while tecii-iity forces stand idly by.
US warplanes down iwo Libyanshoe auaek ihem over the Cut/ af S'd'a.
Libya linked lo plot io kidnaper kill US Ambaisadvr lo Italy.
resumes aniidlssidemrem-
paign with bombings in London and Manchester.
Libyan aircraft bombs Omdurman.in attempt lo destroy radio station operated by Libyan dissidents. *
Members of Ihe London LibyanBureau ILPB)ritishwhile they shoot at anii-Qadka-
fi dissidents from the LPP windows.
lihyan ship mines she Red Sea.
Libyan diplomat attempts to mailbombs lo Tunisian journalistsof Qadhafi:
Egyptiansibyan attempt inrominent dissident and tricki admitting the plot publicly.
Libya linked lo ANO atlacks on Rome and Vienna airports.
US NaYyauackt. Libyan torpedo boats and SAM me after Libyan gunners fi'e on US planet in the Gulf af Sld'O
Libya linked to on attack againsi La Belle disco tn_Berlimhot kills two VS servicemen.
US warplanes attack targets in Tripoli and Banghast.
Libya linked to series of antl-US. ontl-VK attacks.
Ubyan terrorism aritviiy drops Tofranil activity gradually resumes.
Ubya linked ro attack cm British batr in Cyprus
atmoiif LPB-isprompted ia byfear that inept aaentt would be lintidther terrorm attacka, capoainc Tripoli lo additional retaliation.
Hrirhlcnrd ucwMycouBtriei
Terr or,ettwtycontingency ptanniag and lurviittamer of US, frinck. and British intertill
Libya linked to attack onbouti.
French autaemitlcs stiieans offrom Libya destined for mtejry PIRA.
Ubya linked to attack on US ynratt volunteer organisation in Chad
Two senior Ubyan agents antsied In
Senegal carrying silenced pistol and
expletives probably foe attacks agiunii 'French target!.
Ubya linked to attacks cm USfacikiles in Italr. Spain. Peru. Costa Rica, and Colombia -pepeobjy meant to com memoeate the second anniversary of US airstrtket aMtkt)
Uncertaintyjdini US ttflw- thould TripwH b' linked to anotherS atiack.
Qadbaft't unalluted hardy threeaad ttearl,aoteieoton of terrorism
The pace of lakya* activity piefced mpadhafi -tunednehto lha Co.
mfTeredinc the or.n( Tripee. -aa bidedubsequent attacks in Africa thatruovtblv intended to punish Parlt aad Wathinatan for iheir re-let In ihwarnn. Libyan ambition* Inrench rctituiant in Djibouti was attacked, and inlodeduildlna besoa.iniS ttrh-ale nslurorgiiuiatioo in Moundou. Chad. Abo hi Oaebu French authoritiesr eiahterorn of xapona that were a. ciftw the Pro-iwooal Irish ReoxkJxaa Armya
b. by
adhafiprimaryauied by the ciputtir* of team of Ubyan diplomat, from fcuropc and an
QadfcatYs interest in striking French tirsfcls in Afriea continued ifltQ. In February two senior Libyan agents were arrested al the airport in Dakar. Senegal, attempting ioand silenced pistol inio tbe <
We strongly inspect (hai QtdhaA.ublic posture of moderation,a( leanicrics of mucks by client iroups against US targeu8 on or near the second anniversary of the airjtrikcr.
Onpril, an activist member of the Japanese Redt A)ar bombSO club in Naples thai killed one US senicc-vA>rnan and four Italians and wounded at leasithers.
On IS April, an unidentified groupS Air Force coram unicalions facility near Tcurejon. Spain.
Onpril, gunmen set off optatives in ihe (ISIS facility in Medcllin. Colombia, after evacuating the
Onpril, in Lima. Peru, two fcinationil centers were bombed.volutionary Movement Tupacgroup- with longstanding lies toresponsibility tor thc attack
and Air ForceT The
Onomb eiptodedS IS brenter in San lose. Costs Rica, injuring five persons, including Iwo US citUens.!-
tymbotism o( these targets would be particularly pleasing to Qadhafi since the planes that attacked Libya6 were from theso scry
QadhalPaSute Apparatus V
flQTakarl has iclied both On his Own Internal terrorist suppcrt apparatus and on his tela lions with terrorist
9 4 6
b! b3
bl b3
b3
9 5
b?>
ol ihe oppressed ihic goal eacrcdi Libyan capabilities, Tripoli apparentlyoa few itleti all "
a aharud
iBinettbya in targeting IS personnel and facilities and who Nave proved Iheir ability to carry oul lerrorist aiiacka.lies allow Tripoli ID aiif mem lit itnVine power while minim mug lhe Libyan operationalWashing!oni ability to prove Ubyan eomplicty Qadhafi probably bcJ-eves lhal utng non Libyan icirorisl E'Ourn alio ohanecs hii image. He often publicly portrays attacks by groups anywhere in the world as spontaneous events inar aiainst colonialism and Zionism and painlt himselfeading player la Ihis war whose revolutionary ideala arc shared by ihc "opprcucd* worldwide. fJPg^pgtssjaas Ly-J^
_ Despite these inevitable tensions, manyof iheehcni-iponsor relationship* have prerved mutually
Althougb Qadbaft probably has noi been ablehe decree of control over his clients thai he has sought, they have given him Iht ability to project thai be would not otb*iwm have. The Libyan leader's influence with theseprimarily on his ability to provide themnot nlwnys turllcleni to tolnit allacks. QadhaAt abilityo SO is circurnacribed to some citcMesire on theu prir-eci thmby irTercncca in pobttialy differeni news on how to achieve shared goals, at well as by thc Ubyan leader's mercurial tcmpcraasmi and tepulH' lion as an unreliable patron
ases, forms asTlfaining. funding:,to fe haven, false documentation, or ideologicalwith varying degrees of regularity.
Radical Palestinian Groups
Radical Palestinian groups have scrfd at Qadhafi's primary clients for terrorist attacks. Support for anti-Arafat Palestinian groups hasairly consistent Libyan policy tince theQs.daatM
Recent ANO operations appear to reflect accordance with QadhafVt terrorism aienda- Among ike ANO's recent largett haveritish clubotel ssed wios.nl. by Westerners sn Kharsawatcf^^^
tuspcet bet leastihem at dramatic reminders of Western vulnerability and thc power of terrorists who shireal* dJgjgjjV
Drier Paiairfaiaa Graaai QaChafi coaiiswei fo ftdi aHMawwWnvk-k- |
pn6 alnsnsi certainly pressures themOack Western intereiu. Oadhafl has erjnsisttnttr^pporied
5 5
aii-PLO radical groups lirvce ihe mid'when rial Yasir Arafat had become too moder-
have
been aimed at hncland the occupied territories. However. Libyan pressure on aome of these groups u> attack Weaiera tercets may have been successful io al Icait
Red Army *
Daring the past two years. Tripoli may haveor encourageducks against UStfaathave been United io activist members of lb
ihali has probablyof lhc JRR-sTnee
[Accord.ng to press ac-ccunis. ihc Libyan leaderero't welcome to the lone JRA survivor of ibe Ud Airport masssc. upon hit release from an Israeli in
iniballah
IQadhafi has hired Hiiballah him obtain control of Western
Padhan bat periodically worked with elements of the radical Ubanetc Shia terrorJsi group Hiiballsh in Ubanon oU anad hoc basis; stiong ties have not developed because of political and rcliiious diflcr-ence
II three were mi^rderwd iwo days after the US annuitiesowever, ts notnatural illy ea" Tripoli Ufce most UbancKri'lm ISnin QadhafiTot tjte dmppetijvncc1 of-the Imam Muta Sadr. lhe tpiritual leader of (heXjbanese Shia community,^nd dislike Oadhafi'a political< her reason would ': oftoeru lo slap further development of relat ioni lhc ahaaatstti of tha group thai ai*>src>uly cooperate vth jhe_Libyans are probably only mercenaries.
Prortsieaal Irish RepsHlean Army Although Qadhafi almost certainly has littlePlRArhehtu; supplied It some of lhe most sophisticated weapons in his arsenal. Tripoli has provided weapons lo PIRA SinCc alhen Irish authoritieshipetric torn of Libyan arms off the cr.
October
ltd
bound for Ireland1 of arms and eiploiivet.'Including heavy machlnegum.i. andantiaircraft missiles. PJRA't enhanced weaponsaK compelled BrnnK forces to augment Iheirasture and adopt new security measures QadharVs support toPiRrUa most likely growi out of his belief lhauibe United _
Kingdomuivei linttiy.-m ,
n'l rCS
XSt-*
"f
Qadhafi haiumber of other terrorist ofgroup* around iht wo>ld ihat have ami-Weitern biases. I-
We believe ihat. as with Qadhafrs other client Croups, pressure on (hem to conduct lerrorist opera-iions acairrst targets of his erecting in csehange for. hta continuine support hasiaed
Political Slcuiiiy andThe Terrorism Agenda
Despite recent incidents of internal unrctt. Oadhafi haterawn politically'more secure during the past year: and ihat will enable him to devote more lime lo implementing his terrorism agenda. He has clearly
reco-ered Irons thc alrstrikc* uv vdl as from hit disuirewt miliiary defeat by Chad7 In panicthedevelopment! have beenia restorirut Qathan's polilleal strength
wrms riots i
And retime seniinveru In ihcjirr/itd forces hatThe cease-fire withcot em1 itheied owe of the meat salient ficviitces the oaVtit corps held against QidKi'i. and inl Qadhafi insiitutednd political fount that hate mcreated his aenctal
not yet appear to hat undermined QadhaHU aie tborlty. Although QadhaA's dootculc standing could be quietly threatened- -by renewed fugMing in Chad in "fcieh Libyan iroopa fared badly, fe* eiampar^his control of H*robably ihe motiat berSPtinc* the US airsiriltel*
Ii ii pressure on Qadhafi liaa rated In the paitonihs Oadhafi hat moved to restore diplomatic relit iooi with Iraq and Tunisia and participated in boih the Arab Leacue eitraordinary tummii Inin8 and twoh>*b
tin pany nimmiu. He hat taici hit predicament i*
West European sentiment is aUotoftcninc; Italy hosted an official visit by QaelhiAt principal*Abd al-Salsm Jallud. in Noiembei:
CSad hj^ttcutaione.Habcc and escaped condemnation at tbc Organisation of African Unityin8 detpite bciaa linked to an abprttd terrorist operation tn Senegal. He hfes alsoy the hendi of stair ofur en
Xjadhafi's hard-won current strength could be quickly undo mined, however, if he is clearly linkedew terrorist aci and coites under renewed foreign pret; sure.'
to*
b3
hi
W2>
Seyef
Indicator! efChange
thc consiitincy of Qadhafi 'a opposition lo OS and Western Interests -and his longstanding polity of giving aidoreignIt unlikely to rtduee his support for itrrorlsm.
ill 3
it present Tripoli ustl all Hi resourcesofficials, confirming theirofficial
Receni Libyan tcmcesslons. tuch as recognition of Chadlan President llobrt's govemmem. also pointibyan willingneii to compromise lender pressure. Although we are skeptical, Qadhafi may reduce Libyan terrorism in iht hoot of tsiablishlng better relationsew US administration
In an approachew administration. Qadhafi would Insistttsallon of US votlllcal. teonemie. and military pressure em Libya. Tripoli, of course, will tryinimitt lit concessions and maj- simply eafer to stop direct targeting of US personnel and facilities. Tripoli would probablypail operations were net author]red by Qadhafi and thai political reform! Implemented this year will prevent future abuses Although Qadhafi might,ime, honor an agreemtm to ctatt directly targeting USpenonneirh, iinmld probably continue to suppers terrorist groups wlllinx to target.
V]or tneir anions. Qadhafi ladrenl political strength and terrorist activities, his pass practice of dishonoring diplomatic agreements, end Ut recent publicll suggesi lhat he is unlikely to oiler hit anil-US
oitenmilfm HNb>
Should Qadhafi make overturn lo lhe Uniied Slaiet to Improve rtlatlons. Indicators that Qadhafi Iswould include:
Punishment af Libyan diplomats and Iniellit operatives caught In terrorist aperoiioni
b3 -
arrest pr dischargeall. This might wttl be generated
: polities unrelated to gestures tobut It wauld-euggest thai ihose Ideologues most closely anoclattd with Ubyuveitcrerlim were out of favor,
direci encouragemeni by Libyan officioli of Itrroritl attacks on US lergttt.
' ' '
Libyan eonieni wiih US radicals.
radicals worldwide
Cloturt of some af iht commercial frontblatantly Involved
^2
1 would not expect Qadhafi to drop Libyan support loradical Palestinians, whose cause hat broad support in Libya.
b3
i
W3
Pnwn ofprominent Libyan txtle 'Abd el Atunim sU-/lunlosition In iht Libyan regime. Huni hat contliltnlly made eeitaiion of Libyan terrorism and dnbandntem of the Revolutionarycirtauliite for hii return to Tripoli.
routd easily it age the dr anion,
trial and punlihmmSiplomat or intelligence orett taughtttrortii operation wfshoutng the orderi that Instigated lhe operasion Qadhafi has often -puntthrd"ttntor Libyan officials by ploc Ins them under haw arreitwlih Mo concomitant
Indwaren that Qadhafi plan, to be eurmtxrrt
site mtfht include
The- inttugnatem of agemti or ctficialt caught (at Ubyan irrroriu aaeratinmi to laflumiiolvrrieot or la Tripoli.
An Increase of Inernlieet or rewordl offered lo
rrhapi coupled with measuresto punuh orpoaiioitoeii that fail ia meet Ubyan terrorism demands.
eonimuid preirncrm position* of power of officials known to be associated with terrorist
operation! SjMf
Qadhafi ha, (lvcn clearf hi>io terrorism andon -ilh thr United State* in public and prirateip to Tunisia inadhafi virulently atUched the United Stain andatt crnnve.nmrnti in an addresshe Tunisia* I'arUn-
* January IVtn. Oadhafi threatened to'Americacan reach- if the UnrTM Slates attacked thc Libya* chec-wallantnt
Kabia,
LaohUtf
ect Libyan^pontcred ic.romt attach! toatt Qadhafi it confident of tueceat and deniability and perh.pt even increase io thehat hit influence over client groupsgro-a. IhB Libyanell potiiionedeliable internal apparatus and suffic-en. political aacuiil. inicwisi attack* In additraa. bly commuted lo cndinEFrench, and British influence-.mf anifytng the Arab -orld. aa well tt dettroymg the tuta of ItraeL Althougher-odlcally ordered lactealhratatieto inv tmrea ihc regiave't image, Qidrjrj has crar-vttently Mturttcd to tenor mnnnary loot L_ *ch*>ing
hi Wtaiern Initio*.
ol an enabliibed infrastructure conllnuel to make that region an attractive renue for arriaka.
Concerning Central America.there iaccvortuaily tolafWnce at kulc coo and to
focus tu remoter* doaer to home Because Adrca erTertumber of operationalincluding numcroui toft targeti, porous borders, an ciiitiisg infrastructure, and aofurrogate!hu been tbe awe of iner fated Libia:nterest oil the Lut IIcharactcriud by wtapom smuggling. Urn licit with subversives, and ecabluhment of from companies.
b3
Oadhali almost certainly will continue to uie ciieni group* to attack US tamer* and in Ihe near term will probably continue lo provide support auch ai money, training, etocumeniation. andeapon*dc range of terrorist groups. P
(Jidhill almost cenainly will appioaeb the newin aa effort to Improve reia lionsprivatelyto nop Libyan Mppart foragainit US target* in retainessation ofeconomic, and military pressureQidhaJi aa^areot itrrngih and activities, hisof duhonoringnd hitstatements al.' thatr.lilelihts general ami US polity or ptrmincntlyttisait ^fjftfl-
et
Appendix _jj
Libyan Terrorist Aclivtly by Rceion
Middle East an*Africa Al thou ah many of Onlhili'i client* are bawd in ihe MiddleUS target* lie probablyilk There from Libyan orupported rerrorrtiiharof tha uartd QadhtG's MutotM Iradicalrnote tilcly lo strike in areai where il it caitri lo nnd tofi targcti. and the ehaneei ol involving itipporlivc ArnB governments areotable eiception it Ii Lebanon, where a'fea element* of.llixballari, seeking monetary jcward..ln*i' |ara"rd US citizens (or Ihe
1 thear.iialioci (ANOlsiuarhcd- wave of lerrnrrti operation* thai laigtlrd Writrrn, Israeli, and moderuie Arab inuiriiiianrliluwii of more Ihin a
j-lrMMd-Apiil, BlackANO (over-name utod for attack) on Jordanian laijcii-Clairncd responsibility (or Iwocnnloaiona in Amman
* On Ii May in Khartoum three ANO members carried oui separate tyjekihc Briiith Sudan Club and the Acropolc Hotel*
Africa
Sirceadhafi hu Hied lo lllliaajg hit polilicalfrica by combining aggressive diplumacy and intimidation Because Africa Oilersumber of Opciaiieoal advantaias- includ-iar numaroui toli targelt, pereus borders, aneaits-of potential lurtogaics -it haiey site lor rectalerror iu 'STT^TiTTTr^ ilyu'n" fcad-OT*eag-ierm ofcjeetrrei are U>S. Iranch. and Israeli influence and ml thenf ivhai he amwderi nonprocrtiiivc re gMnea. he pariiculaily seeks tevticnsTt hen hn prailionChad by undernumng Alncrw suppoil fix IVasi dent Habre The greatest risk in UR targeti tsfrombynn-mpported or iponiorait groups, however, tl" ANO hits also conducted an attack in Sv.dan fSNi)
9 6 3
alwlity of
make ihe region an attractive xnoe for attacks, i
b3
We stroncly suspect that Qadhafi iponsored two bombings ulat occurred in Western Europe on the
IS ii.
_Jthewould be Ihe first involving Libya in Europe fn nearly aQadhafi hat improved his ability to conduct deniablethere through elieat groups.
Qadhafi may also havelient group to detonate Iwo bombsS Air Force communics-lions fadlliy near Torrejon.Spain,on IS8 Although no group hat claimed responsibility, the target and timing of the attack tagged LibyanThe US Air Force was the target of lhc Torrejon in
symbolism of lhe attacks on both ihese targets would be particularly pleasingadhafi since the planesthatLibya6 were from these services.
JaaXa, yr^>
before these attacks. Qadhafi publicly predicted that rogressives the world over would strike. lies -anddeaicil Libyan rciponsibility uJMMCfMIs
BBS
I-tin America andhn. ihowninoreaaed Interest inlhe We*ern Hemltpbe.e, Tripoli dearlyre^on offer,llent Opportunity toUS utfluence at little coat and to forceton to focus
entral and South America withapability and the willriketutpect Libyan pressure was behind attaebOS timet. in Colombia,nd Cent, Rie-
Trtr^tVTnY* *
6 April. In Liere bombed, injuilng
I Ctnlrr
in theflef CTaeuatlng the buildinc
Car/frrVaa Qadha* continues efforts to recruit Ca-nbbean die nit who are capable of nrihina-ntrrotr.
. crTorti have fucutcd on tho Frenah-ipeaVing blandt. whichradition, grid politict climate more conduc-va-to violence than eiim in the-Engliih.tpeallrrK Ulandi.
ruit bylona;,landing ileaflioiy of aiucairutarobtbty thc jreatett riih tok
ifi'i Middiaclient! incnily laot th* in frail, act urc roc elective open lieni in Central America. Sooth America, or ihc Caribbean *aa)a>
All. aad Im, Pat*.
la lac Pacaic and Ana. at he fen* In otheradhifi haiMagfctocalaad capand hit inlknctining lhal nf iht Waat. Hi* aBort* tonframuciaec capableart by bl* iaabihey to openB* aad by tbe^cAcnini of an etUbUihcd LPS i* Canberra by Avairailln officiiT. OrapftetetbaclijTJadhafi maim Contacti with group, capable of atriamg Weaiernjr.teeeatl.ln there* to it
Original document.
Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: