Con tents
Iran: Tehran Sends in New Troops
BiUlersI Talks Staled for Early May USSR: Poor Finrt-Quarter Economic Performance
USSR: Frustrations Wiih Htvrstroyka Vented ai Plenum
Paraguay: RodriRuei Favored in Election Monday
llrief
Tehran Send* in New Troops
Arab League foreign ministers agreed in Tunis %9
Arab observer force to monitor ihc cease-fire in Lebanon^ they have
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an observer force would fly the Arabg. operate under the commanduwaiti officer, and deploy for about three months. The League called for lifting blockades on all pons, roads, and airportsand for reopening crowing points' between East and West Bciru:
Iraq's provision of miliury support to Lebancie Christians almost certainly spurred Iran to increase itsebanon. The new Iranian forces probably will be deployed to Ba'libakk.ove by some of the troops to West Beirut or even southern Lebanon is possible. With the arrival of the Iranians. Hizballah may move more of its own lighters to southern Lebanon. Israel would react forceJuJIy to any shift in the military balance near its security zone.
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Damascus may have allowed the unprecedented increase in Iranian troopsesture to Iran in exchange for Hizballah's participationuture military confrontation with thc Christians. The Syrians in any case will not accept what they sec as in Iraqi-sponsored Arab League proposal, particularly if the Iraqis were part of the deterrent force. Syrian naval operations suggest they arc picDflnn^oiriterdic; an anticipated Iraqi arms shipment to the Christians.H
Syria probably calculates thai thc Arab League's effort will fail because of Christian intransigence and theditionjI reluctance to press Damascus on contentious issues.fl
CtUNA-VIETNAM: Bilateral Talks Slated for Early May
and Hanoi tillecond round of talks on Cambodia in which they will try to resolre differencesompreheniir^etrle.mcnt before General Secretary Gorbachev arrives ia China.
China's Foreign Ministry spokesman announced yesterday thatthe Vietnamese at the Vice Foreign Minister level,for laic February, will be held in Beijingas publicly welcomed Pbnom Penh's proposal forin Cambodia after Vietnamese troops leave but hasstrict international supervision. Meanwhile. SovietMinister Rogachev is in Beijing, continuing what aspokesman calls very compucflj^Lnrivate talks
preparation for next month's summit.
deferredilfcs with Vietnam until the eve of Gorbachev's arrival onay to maximize pressure on Hanoi lo compromise on key issues. Beijing and Moscow may be counting on Vietnamese concessions to case the dialogue on Cambodia at their summit. Beijing will push Hanoi to be flexible on powersharingrovisional government in Cambodia and to accept UN supervision of Vietnam's troop withdrawal and of elections in Cambodia.
Hanoi will counter that China should be satisfied with Vietnam's accelerated withdrawal timetable and with Phnom Penh's political and economic reforms, including elections in Cambodia later this year. Hun Sen's proposal for an independent council to prepare for elections, and his willingness to modify symbols of his regime like lis flag and anthem. The Vietnamese probably .will press Beij ing to begin reducing aid to thc resistance and will look to Prince Sihanouk's meeting with Hun Sen ncxt^cjk to set the stape for progress on thai issue with Ihc Chinese. I
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Pod First-Quarter Economic Performance
Recently released Soviet statistics far tht first Quarter of this year show tittle progress ia bringing financial order to the economy, quickening f industrial modernization, or Improving consumer welfare.
finu^iiiTtrr inrlimrialercent over lhe same period last year. If ibis persists, induslrial growth will not exceed lasl year's sluggish Thc production of eleciric power grew more slowly lhan
anytime since ihc, growth of natural gas output slowed considerably, and average daily oil production declinedercent. The Soviets also said they have made little progress in the eftonroduce moce siate-of ihe an equipment. fJHkV
For consumers, wages continued to outstrip labor productivity, and the regime made link progress in increasing supplies of consumer hems, wiih the exception of alcoholic beverages. The availability of consumer durables changed little from last year, indicating lhal efforts to increase the production of consumer goods in defense industries have not had much effect so far. Food shortages arc still
rapidly. I
Investment expenditures maintained their fasi climb. But Ihe valuefactories brought on line declined, probably because much ofin investment spending by enterprises during theto new projects ralhcr than to completing existingplant managers may be investing more now becauseprices of machinery and construction costs lo keep
Moscow alsoig dropoff in housing completions and inocial service facilities in thc first quarter,
(General Secretary Gorbachev has madesince last year toighter financial grip onby controlling wages and prices and cutting investmentspending. The economy is offoor sum thisand things are probably not going io gel much betierregime therefore is likely lo resort to furtherloid on wages and investment spending.blamed "group selfishness on lhe part or ministriesfor lhe excessive wage increases and ordered
investigationm .mrmpt to brinp. theontrol byidyear, j
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Soviet Press Publishes Unusually Sharp Debute
Gorbachev's Determination To Press Ahead
"We, are dissatisfied wish what we have done in the economy. This is especially true of endt this time, comrades, one can easily yield to transient sentiments and step back from the charted course This would be dangerous, to retreat under the pressure of circumstances, We should have the courage and ability to pursue consistently the charted, line under difficult con dit ion?"
Criticism From Central Committee Members ,
"People say there is no senseear line at the top. the party Central Committee is trying to do loo much at once and is displaying haste. All this causes additional difficulties at the local level"
V.flnikov, Komi Obkom boss
"We are very worried about tbe emeigi ng political situation in thc
groups exploit the difficulties with food supply, health care, and the ecological situation to confuse people, sow discord, .whip up unhealthy nationalist sentiments, and even sometimes put forward antisoviet and antipany slogans."
A. P. Myoshnikov. Irkutsk miner
"Economic reform is marking time [because of) the inconsistent, hasty, ill-considered adoptionumber of legislative acts, such as those on the struggle against drunkenness, and the cooperativeas essentially become legal."
Yuriy Sofovycv, Leningrad party boss
hink il is downright immoral to stir up such questions (referring to public suggestions to remove Lenin from the mausoleum! Why do senior officials and secretaries of the Central Committee, in particular comrades Yakovlev and Medvedev. who are responsible forot rebuff our ideological opponents?"
obovlkov. Vladimir Obkom boss
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ttaStfatiOM With Perturoyka Venice al Plenum
Mjntml Comn.Hu, Tuotdoy, pobli.ked inyttrJny; Sonetnows Genonl Secretory Gorbachev; dtiorm.notion lo pros, eheod with reform de.pheofonsensu i. the port) axffj^ -
In his closing speech.dmitted failing lo solve therave economic problems He noied thai many of ihe policies he supported, including increased spendmg ongrams. alone wiih the leadership's failure lo control growing invcsiment and military expenditures, had contributedapidly growing budget deficit. Gorbachev acknowledged thai his economic reforms had removed thc levers the center needs lo influence enterprise activity without giving enterprises incentives to work Oat oul foi itair rjffH>
Gorbachev forcefully rejected the argument advanced by some speakers Ihai reforms had gone 'tooowever, and argued that on Ihe contrary, the elections for the new Congress of People's Drputics lasl monlh amountedublic mandate for further reform. He blamed many of the economic problems on miimjnagemeni at all levels, citing some Central Committee members by name and criticising party bosses for not providing leadership Gorbachev warned that officials are personally accountable for overseeing reform and implied lhal economists muste tier blueprint.^
In contrast,several not retiring from the Centralfurther reform in principle, but attacked ihe
"fyD arfnW and democratbutton and of ill-conceived economic reforms. Leningrad party boss Solovyev. defeated in ihe March elections, expressed concern that some members were trying to lurn Ihe psrtyroup of debating clubs. Of the Central Commiiiec members who were resigning, most appeared to accept ihcir fate grudgingly,ew expressed open dissatisfaction BksssW
peech indicates that, with lhe plenum's retirement of more thanercent of Ihe Central Committee behind him.| uke the political offensive in deepening his reform program The frustrations voiced by Central Committee members suggest: however, ihat he will continue to face difficulty in getting many Central Committee members on board with specific policies. And ite seen whether Gorbachev can follow bis critiqueorkabrc means for solving ihem.
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Rudrfguez Favored in Election Monday
General Rodriguez, who has ruled Paraguay since overthrowing Alfredo Sirorliner in February, is hoodedecisive win im lhe mrtsideatiaJoloradohould lake ike congressional contest.
.Rodriguez may capture at much asercent of theaaaBBBBaBaaaaV H'- "h'rlPom into Lamo of the
Authentic Radical Liberal PanaHaaaaai '* prepared lo accept the eleclion results, satisfied for now wiiholitical base, llorado legislative candidates are not faring as well usnd Laino's party hopes toounh of the
Rodriguez has promised to reform the corrupt, authoritarian system of the Strocssner era and is campaigning as the man to guide Paraguay to democracy. The Colorado* have publicly proposed revising ihe constitution to outlaw successive presidential terms, and Rodriguez has said he will step downbe press is already being allowed unprecedented freedom, and trials of members of the former rcgiroeon charges of corruption and human rights abuses are under . f
Some members of the ruling, elite are resisting economic and political Ijange^tot^ouIrJihreaien their powerBBaaBBHaBBaaBBaV'hr military continues to sanction contraband. The Supreme Court President has rejieged. because of pressure to granl favors to government officials. | B
has no need to resort to fraud, but old-bnc Colorado bosses may try to rig local balloting. He win probably shuffle thc cabinet and military command after his inauguration to consolidate his position. Disunity in thc Colorado Party's leadership, which helped bring down Strocssner. willhallenge And Rodriguez's followthrough on his professed commitment to democratic reforms may be determined in large measure by his willingness and ability to overcome resistance by the party's old guard.
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CHINA: Governmeni OffersTo Tulle With Student*
Chinese leaders yesterdaytudent demandialogue bul insisted that students go through official student unions and stop their protests. Beijing students told Western reporters that they viewed^the offeroncession and apparently remained on campus.
The government is probably trying to buy time and ect the
students out of thc sirects as international delegates and foreign reporter; begin to arriveeeting of the Asian Development Bank neatfirst large international conference. Chinese leaden are not likely to accept other studeat demands, however, whichree press and rescindini regulations against demonstrations. Students, for their part, probably will insist on dealing directly with the leadership, ihey will try io hold more demonstrations on oray. thc 7Qth anniversaryemocracy movement. If they are rebuffed.
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NICARAGUA: Pall Show. Opposition Gains
Although an independent public opinion poll suggeils thecollectively may be more popular than the Sandinistas,still haa virtually no prospect of winning the electionThe survey, conducted for the left-leaningLa Crem lea. showedercent of respondentsparties, an increase ofercent over last month,favoring the ruling party, andercent undecided. Thethey would not vote in the eleclion. Violeta Chsmorro. owneropposition newspaper La Prensa, appears to be thepopular candidate, virtually lied with Presideni Ortegaless than IS percent of the first preferencehas not yet said she would run for president evenopposition groups favor her
i^^HHThe- validity of the poll ia difficulteven if
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opposition parties arc more popular collectively than thchey cannot defeat thc ruling pany without unitingingle candidate; even if they did. the security spparatus would thwart them Erick Ramirez of thc Social Christian Pany has already declared his candidacy, and other political figures are likely to follow his lead. The Sandmistas will use whatever tactics necessary, through the electoral machinery, mass organizations, apparatus, to prevent an opposition win.
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HUNGARY: Ministers Changed Without Party's Saj
Premier Nemeth. under pressure from both opposition groups and the official trade union io improve his go vein men I's performs nee. has appointed sia experienced, well-educated technocrats to head key ministries.ew party rule. Nemeth proposed the changes directlyhe National Assembly without getting prior approval from the. party. Thc Assembly muil decide whether .to confirm the newession next month.
_ putting his own team in place and proposing them
iirecily tocmbly. Nemeth is able to distance himself and hit nominees from the party and undercut further General Secretary Grosi's already weakened position. Thc new chairman of the National Planning Office, whoeading candidate toheadthr new economics ministry, is notarty member. I
EC: New Strategy on Eastern Europe
The decision by the EC Foreign Ministers this week to coordinate their economic and poliiteal policies toward Eaiiern Europe shows aalingness to use the Community's economic weight to pursue political objectives. Belgian Foreign Minister Tindemans said the Ministers' new posilion on Eastern Europe was the EC's answer to penslroyka. The first actions under the new policy were to suspend formally the negotiations with Romania because of Bucharest's human rights record and to accelerate trade talks wiih Poland because of its recent political reform! gg^BI ^
-v c EC in the past had gone to great lengthseep
.entral America.Ml
political and economic agendas separate, and the new pronouncement shows ihe Community's growing confidence and the importance it assigns lo Eastern Europe. The Ministers probably believe their approaches to Romania and Poland, which mirror lhe policies of most individual West European stales, will encourage East European reforms. Any sign that the EC ean use its economic leverage to affect events in Eastern Europe even marginally probably woulda^^joach toother regions, luch as Centra! Africa
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ND; Uproarlanfe'i ANZUS Statement
Prime Minister Lange's surprise announcement at Yaleweek that Wellington is considering withdrawing fromcourted has angered members ofhtt Cabinet and iiopposition
alsoraughi his labor Party
fguard. and Labor members were reluctant to defend himarliamentary debate. New Zealand media haveLanaa jcausehe had long promised not to withdraw from AN/US.|JPJ| .
announcement is sure to revive complaints intnei thai hc is unreliable and could encourage challenges to his leadership. The party warned him last year against making unilateral decisions, and the public criticism of his US speech suggests he hat now lost even more credibility. Lange. whoome this weekend, will probably press aheadithdrawal from ANZUS ia the hope of turning Hie public against the opposition National
Party, which says it wouldesumption of US Navy ship visit* if itwtns thc elcct.cn in Oetobc- I HBfaag.
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In Brief
Italian Foreign Minister Andrcoiti yesterday reiterated need for prtmress on conventional arms tat lis Ih-Iuic SNT nrgojifllipns ..
Hungarian parly president Jinos Kadar seriously in, unable to perform ceremonialeformers calling for critique of Kadar eraontics! problems of pany boss Grosz lim it his ability to prevent Kadars
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Violent student not in Tashkent,!
students were source, local st protesting presence of foreign, Russian students. I
hreerab saidiobe
Leading Soviet economic adviser this month said publklywill feature tight financialharp cut inefense ponions of five-year plan
I Asia
Middle East
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