Warning Page
t
Contents
HalUj. Selling Electoral Course
Ycl'lsin Appears Headed for Big Win
Fighting Intensifies
Iran-Turkey: New Controversy Over Islamic Dress
ador: Government Fortunes Ebbing^*-
Brief
*
Analyses
Politics, Secularism, and Islam
Danger to US Presence Growing
hallenges Ahead
Avrfi's Moves Toward Elections
8 . Late Septemberctober
Eirly November
9
ebruary
arch
atch
power in coup
Bcjinsdiicujilons with national polilical leaders.
Pledges to govern in ipiril7 Constitution but stops short of formally reinstating that document.
Circulates draft decree establishing council to control electoral process.
In response to crinciim of draft decree, convenes forum of political leaders lo surest alternative text.
Issuet decree, based on recommendations from forum snd pans7 Constitution, esiabliihing ninc-member .ndcpcndcnt council to
control elections; only one member iie appointed by thc
government.
Fonmslly restores all butnkles7 Constitution, includinganning former Duval ten its from running for public office
Deadline lorjtom inn lions to the electoral council. Catholic Church, labor unioni. and government are allowed up to one-week delay.
3 O 3 2
Setting Electoral Course
Kecent mores by President Arrll suggest lie is eommineJ in holding
IHaiti, probablyelief that Ihlt is the best -ayegain
foffLj" aid; his pace implies thai voting may occur within IS months.
Avril has restoredorinconmicnt villi hit military crnmcmreports indicate most politicians favorove buiConstitution should have been restored sooner and in full.leaders loldtasasBBsBeVBaaaaaasf thai, although Iheythey believe Avril will continue moving towardThey blasted critics like Syivio Claude and Louis Dcjoreto applaud recent positive
>ftie President continues to keep his criiics on thc defensive. Restoring ihe Constitution deprived them of another issue they had hoped to use to rally support againsi him. Avril is not likely to make hasty moves, such as removing key commanders, thai might abort the electoral process. He probably will try io co-opt restive former Duvalierists prohibited from running for office by building support amonethementrist candidate, like Dazin.'and allowing legislative SBSr*BatSS*sssM
0&SK: Yel'tsinlended (or Hlu Win Initial returns of tlic first contested Soviet state election* in more in.incanoris Vcl'isinnwlttide victoryariy-liaekctl candidate in Moscow's at-largconalist aciiviktt in several non-Russian republics calledoycott to protest thend turnout in the Haluc republics was reported to lie sliglnlj lower than in Moscow. General Secretary Gorbachev yesterday rciiented hit oppositionultipart;-system but admitted thc current electoral procot needs reform. Hand counting of ballots will delay announcement ofllic first iciuhs until .iiijjh ofXtonli haveo release the final toinls.
awGorbachcvs coninieni on the need for further electoral changes mayesponse to accusations that the proccis has been rigged by thc parts. Yeltsin's apparent election tocmbcr Congress of People's Deputies shows strong grastroots support for his attacks on party privileges and calls for more radical reform. The magnitude of his victory mi) make it difficult for his opponent! to denyeal In thc new standing Supreme Soviet. which the new Congress willonpril. Yeltsin has indicated he intends toaction in thc Supreme Soviet, and he may join fotces with Baltic nationalist activists elected yesterday. Despite Yel'tsin's apparent win. however, the results of other less pubJtcizcd races may be better indicators of popular aititudrt toward Gorbachev's reform-p*fjAF> 'y 3
m
AFGHANISTAN: PiKlitlnK intensifies
Afghan resistance fighters launched renewed aiiacka on Jalalabad and Qandahar Saturday. According ioreports, imurseni leaders claim to have captured lbc poll ai Parkand and hoc-trykey defense lines for Jalalabadio have seized ai least four other regime posis Regime officials admitted ihc destructioney bridge on ihc Kabul-Jalalabad road lastV 1
iKabul press coverage of the battles appears to be aimed at preparing regime supporters for the eventual fall of Jalalabad and Qandahar. Tbc press in Kabul continue* to describe bellikmjs successful regime operations and is emphasizing claims that Pakistani. Saudi, and US troops arc directing the attacks, apparently to preempt criticism offulurc reverses. Thc regime has described the new offensive at Qandahar as one of ihe most serious since the Sovietpokesman In the Afghan Foreign Ministry has called on thc US toQn" io Kabul to discuss way*nd the hghtii
r Islamic Dress
Iran is putting relations with Turkey at risk in order to protest Turkish actions Tehran considersyatollah Khomeini last week publiclyurkish court decision overturning reccm legislation that allowed Turkish women to wear Islamic headdress on university campuses. Khomeini characterized the court's aciion as pan of the broader asisult on Islam exemplified by thc Rushdie affair. The comments came shortlyajority ofembcr Consultative Assemblyall fora reduction in relations with Turkey because of that court decision. Thcurkey's parliament hasharp protest to the Iranian Assembly, and thc Turkish Foreign Ministry has called in the Iranian Ambassadorio criticize Tehran's interference in Turkish v?
i Khomeini is using the court decision, as he didto rekindle Islamic and revolutionary fervor in IranIslam as under assault from secular governments.aciion illustrates lhe Iranian leadership'snets since the Rushdie affair to risk political isolation inof Islamic values. Although Ankara's secularism has madewith Iran in the past. Tehran ami Ankarathem ilo" n "'and
economic ties BtBasftasBasassassasssss^
& 0 4 0
In Brief
Philippines relatively quiet before nationwide village electionsiolence. Communist intimidation likely on electionnsurgent attacks also expected Wednesday.nniversary of Communist New Peoples Arnl
bl. b3
reports say Thai Prime Minister to travel to India this. highest ranking Thai lo visit Newikely to discuss trade. India's desire for greater role in resolving Cambodian problemn
China canceled participation of" senior trade delegates in EC session nextrobably following up shaiji deiriarvfti-or. European Parliament's Tibei resolutionsaasl
r_minoi distuibanccs continue in LIuim 4Massassssf V? 3
UK charged senior Pciutian diplomat Saturday with smuggling cocaine worth more than SlO million . on pcisonal travel, but used diplomaticill heighten growing percept ion Lima's antidrug efforts 1 stymied by eorrui 1 lljMpBt .
Press says Cuba's top two union leadersresident Castro dissatisfied with labor's performance in campaign for economic efficiencyuarechanges likely at trade union congress Liter this yrai eaaaasJaV
I
Press reports yesterday say Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Larijani resignedne oflcading pro-West. reflects increased strength of hardliners ininisiry. which had advocated moderate foreign policy.v> >
Jordan yesterday poitponed indefinitely deal for eight Tornado strike-fighter aircraft fromevere financial troubles cited
decision coincides with visit to Amman by IMF officials move welcomed by military, business sectors. stgftaaV
3
Special Analysis
Secularism, untl Klum
to political secularism ond anh the H'ett. althnugh Itlamic practices are oeeuming more vitiate and accepud, often with the acthe promotion of Prime Minister Ozal's goir,nment ond ro the ditmay of the mllitarj and other secularist, in thr Turkish political elite. Although Islamic fundamentalism ishreat Islamn important social and cultural fame In TurkeyrotinE factorhe political equation that will make for new frictions at home and may hurt Ankaraeffort, to join the EC. toaiiikW T
The dandlingaw permitting women students to wear Islamic headdress to class has created considerable controversy. The Oral government passed the legislation last year in responseeries of campus protests. Presidentstaunchthe measure to court, however, claiming it contravened the constitutional principle of secularism; his claim was vindicated rcccmlv^licVTTTc" Consiiiuiional Court overturned thc law.
i protested the ruling. 1y. including Orsl.
Somealled for a
tic Minister
Several small demonstration of Ihc ruling Motherland Pai referendum to change lhe Ct has since backed off thc idea Iran is behind thehc issue. Military-ommiimcniecular parli:
Thc icaclion to the controversy surrounding ihc Tito Satanic Verses has been muted. Several small, unevcniful protests have occurred, and Turkey's religious authorities have labeled Ayatollah Khomeini's dcaih decree ua-lslantic. Thc government has nottand on the novel's publication or on the death sentence against author Salmancfusedlo endorse ihe ECs stand opposing Iranian policy.
Role of the Oial Government
The visible obser. anro of Islam is on the rise in Turkey Largelycsuli of social changes thai have flooded the cities with people from the countryside who bring iheir conservative religious outlooks with them. Observersrowing interest in Turkcv's hUarpic and Ottoman past as well, especially among ihc
Orals Motherland governmcni. whichell-organized wing of religious conservatives, has encouraged thc rise in IslamicPandering in the prayer rug vole has gone on since lhe
l?S9
continued
O 4 S
advent of multiparty politics in tltc, butl government has been especially active, lis most noteworthy action includes promoting religious education in Mutel himselfontroverts!ilgrimage to Mecca lastr Thc trend ffniurbiecularized, urban elite, wl.khjifcu.tc* the government ofndermining tcrubrluii aaVaBaaai
Outluok
There arc sttll powerful constraints on the growth of Mnm nsforce in Turkey. Public opinion polls show support forregime remains small atercent, and few questiontradition bequeathed by Kcmal Ataturk, founder ofRepublic, or the Western orientation establishedWar II. Moreover,crccnt^arcand the absenceierarchical, politicitcd clergydifficulteligious leader to emerge. Turkey's raputalso promotes closer ties to thc West, andchief arbiter in Turkishcommitted
Thc more visible and accepted place of Islam in Turkish life will nonetheless remain. Many Islamic activists in Turkey, especially those in thc Motherland Party, want no more than to expand the role of religious activity within the confines of the secular state. Owl himself claims he simply supports greater freedom foreligious expression, just like secular regimes in the Wen tk%mW* 3
Implications for the US
a strong trend toward Islam is not likely to affect Ankara's foreign and security-policies. Geography has surrounded Turkey withor potential enemies and left it badly in need of Western economic and security assistance. Moreover, thc Oral government pursuestics to the US. rapprochement with Greece, free marketpromote tics to the West. Mernbejshjp in thcej foreign policj objective ^sJMijisaf
Over the longore visibly Islamic Turkey woulduropean reluctance to admit Turkey to theore Islamic Turkey might become less cooperative on specific issffT. Additional differences with Western Europe, such as an eventual rejection ot" Ankara's bid to join the EC. could lead the Turks to see themselves as more Islamic than Western and mighthange in 1with the Wcsi.aBaMJPsW
V>3
0 4 6
Special Analysis
Sin.
when the current round of fighting in Lebanon ebbs, the animosity dividing Lebanese factions, their propensity for senseless violence, and The abundances/.heavy neuponry will pate serious risks to USasfjaakr .
Most orcompeting interestMuslim and Christianhe confessionalthc except ionontinued US presence in Lebanon and arc unlikely nowarget US personnel or facilities directly. Bui Ihe sudden unraveling of alliances and Ihe rapid resort to violence in disagreements like that over the illegal port* could qutckl) endanger US lives tVasssV
Threat From Intra-Christian Fighting
_ Christian
Prime Minister Awn's Lebanese Armed Forces and Samir Jaja's Lebanese Forces mililia, eMn control thc territory around thc US Embassy. Doth view the US presenceymbol of legitimacy Tor the Christian enclave and would not want the US to withdraw from inV 1
Thc two Christian groups arc bitter rivals, however
mmmm
icltcves Awn is ler of time before aasasbwaaeasM
"outd be in ihe
want* lo avo preparing foj the unpredic is near the si pathhat Awn plan; Forces
Threat From Christian-Muslim Clashes
havo^pt been hit during the current wave of shelling, despite the devastation of nearby Lebanese Armyon orders from Damascus lo ovoid US facilities. Hut. the Muslim militias, particularly the Shia Amal, arc noi known for accurate artillery fire,isk that US installations may be struck by errant roiinds. flssfPV b
3 0 4 8
<
r
US chimn ha* been injured in ihc lighting. alUiongJisJicjlms of ihc Lebanese Defenseits been particularly intense at limci
was visiting ihc Ministry when it was slitltcd last wee* but wasan> of the roads regularly traveled by ppbjpjgucrsonucleen shelled, andfircfiehis along these roads erupt frequently and without
h3
Cards
A rupture inec of Damascus on these groups
on^|ese
Several groups not directly involved in Iheparticularly thc pro-Iranian Hizballah andSyrian-supported Popular Front for the LiberationCommand, also pose serious threats toThe latest car bombing in East Beirutjncar thcprobablyro-Syrian
reducethe
and substantially increase the threat to US interests.
strike by-guards at the Embassy in January that raised new concerns about the safety of US personnel in Beirut has receded, but the basic problem is slill unresolved.-Marp^o/ thc guards arc members of or loyal to the Lebanese Forces
Special Analysis
EAST GERMANY: Challenges Ahead
Htwiottalandeeanonttcre making* it increasingly difficult Jer iht Ley Crmm regime lu maintain dumrttic uahilit, nhile pursuing fauer economic promh. tout Ctrman leude. Honeckerirm grip cn po-rte. but hi, advancednd rigid opposition soprohaM, will mokehe issue this year.
The regime has sough) to contain popular protests through both increased repression and limiicd liberalization. It hat recently made travel and emigration rules seem looser, for instance, and has given citizens tlic right to judicial review ofadmimslratnc decisions. Sit-ins by would-be emigrantsuman rights dcmontirauon bv several hundred persons in Leipzig, however, indicate that lhe regime's concessions have left many unsatisfied. SinHurlv. the -
ear ago of restrictions on travel to the West'appears toincreased rather than diminished the numbei sccfcma io emigrate. flsaaksV^" 'C )
Developments in ihc USSR alto are fueling ihe demand for change. ^Various rcporjsjndicalc lhal General Sccrciarv Gorbachev's reforms enjoy widespread support in East German v. among both thc populaiionai large and the paiiy rank and file. For example, lower echelon party members recently were quite critical of the banningoviet magazine thai had reporied Moscow's IJacrahzatmn measures and efforts to reassess Soviet histor.
Declining economic growth it further undermining the regime's pott lionihc general populaiion. Since ibe mid-lvSOs. GNP growth has fallen by about half, discrediting thc regime's promises to Improve living standards. The leadership is opposed lo Soviet-style economic restructuring out of fear lhat economic decentralization and markei-oricmcd reforms would reduce the party's power and bring on political instability. The retime still hopes the development of key technologies and selective imports of Western capital goods
will increase labor produeii. it> and satisfy consumers, buj
ic rebound seems unlikely without markci-onenlcd reforms.
ii 6 O"
'usitinn
Despite >omr disagreement* in the leadership, particularly on ihc handing of dissidents ond ilic extern nfi'vonoiniconeeker seem*etain hit fiTni grip onHit age and resistance to chance, however, arc encouraging more and more East Germans lotook to hi* eventual rcpfctcrmcni Man) experts. East and West, expect him to leave office by thc nest pan, congress, scheduled fore might then retain (he mostly honorary post of Council uf Sune Chairman. No clear suctctsor ha* enieiued. but East Berlin party leader Schnbowski and 1'ariy Secretary for Sceuriiy and Youth Aftnur appear especially well situated to lake ox-cr. 7
Outbok
Unrest is likely to grow if the East German economytagnate while Gorbachev's domestic reforms proceed. As long as Honcrkci remains in charge, however, the regime is not likely to make lay major policy shift in response. Thc leadership will continue to seek better relations with thc US but is unlikely to move quickly on outstanding issues such as war-related US property claims and human rights violations. Even Honeckcr's eventual successors willd^om^tuc llhcralization witlrgrcal caution ifffMlfnjr-'
OS I
Original document.
Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: