MIDDLE EAST BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 14 JANUARY 1989.

Created: 1/14/1989

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

SUBJECT! RIDDLE EAST BRIEF FROMiPAS. CONTENTS

USSR-AF CHANISTAN

AFGHANISTANi RESISTANCE SETS SHURA DATE

INTERNATIONAL! PAYMENTS TO IMF LAGGING

IH BRIEF

1. USSR-AFCHANI STAN: SHEVARDNADZE AGAIN VISITING KABUL

SOVIET FOREIGN MINISTER SHEVARDNADZE'S VISIT TOARRIVED IS INTENDED TO COORDINATE WITH AFGHAN PRE^DiHT NAJIBULLAH THE FINAL PHASE OF THE SOVIET TROOP WITHDRAWAL.

SHEVARDNADZE WENT TOEAR AGO, BEFORE MOSCOW'SSTATEMENT ANNOUNCING ITS PLANS TO WITHDRAW! HE WAS IN AUGUST AS THE FIRST PHASE OF THE WITHDRAWAL WAS HEARING MEANWHILE, SOVIET DEPUTY DEFENSERESS CONFERENCE IN MOSCOW YESTERDAY THAT THEHONOR THEIR COMMITMENTUNDER THE CENEVA ACCORDS TO BE OUTBY IS FEBRUARY.SHABANOV

Approved for Release

Date JUN

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SAIO THE SECOND STAGE OF THE WITHDRAWAL WOULO START SOON. ?

RIP PR08AQLY IS ALSO IHTENOEO ON STRATI MOSCOW'S CONTINUING SUPPORT FOR ITS CLIENT IH KABUL. , ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FAILED NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE RESISTANCE IH SLAMABAD LAST WEEK AM) AS SOVIET TROOPS WITHDRAW. BUT. WHILE BUCKING UP REGIME MORALE FOR THE HARD OATS AHEAO. KE ALMOST CERTAIMLT IS CAUTIONING NAJIBULLAH AHD THE RULING PARTY THAT FACTIONALUT ING WOULD THREATEN THE REGIME'S REMAINING HOLD ON 'A

THE SOVIITS"PRESUMABLY HAVE FEW ILLUSIONS ABOUT THE CHANCESAVORABLE POLITICAL SETTLEMENT AT THIS LATE DATE BUT, WITH KABUL. MIGHT TRY ONE MORE POLITICAL GAMBIT TO ENTICE THE RESISTANCE BACK TO TM tt; TABLE OR, FAILING THAT, ,T0 SEIZE THE PROPAGANDA HIGH

OLLOW-OH GOVERNMENT. THE SOVIETS LIST OF CANDIDATES FOR

IT IS LESS LIKELY THAT MOSCOW AND KABUL WOULDOVERNMENT RESHUIFLE THAT WOULO FURTHER DIMIHISH THE RULING PARTY'S PRESEHCE AHO REMAMI IT. AS HAS BEEN RUMORED IN KABUL, OR OFFER NAJIBULLAH'S RESIGNATION. THE RESISTANCE HAS REJECTED SUCH OFFERS AS DISINGENUOUS AND WOULDO AGAIN. ANO MOSCOW ANO KABUL WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE COHCERHED THAT SUCH MOVES MIGHT FURTHER DAMAGE PARTY UNITY AHO MORALE.

SHABANOV'S COMMENTS MAY SIGKAL AN END TO THE PRESS BLACKOUT THE SOVIETS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING ON THEIR WITHDRAWAL ACTIVITIES. POLITICAL SPOKESMEN LIKE VORONTSOV. HOWEVER. MAY CONTINUE TO THREATEN NQNADHEREHCE TO THE GENEVA ACCORDS IN LAST-DITCHUSH PAKISTAN ANO THE RESISTANCE OLITICAL SETTLEMENT. |

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2. AFGHANISTAN: RESISTANCE SETS SHURA DATE

LONG-

ALLIANCE MEMBERS HAVE REACHEO AGREEMENT TOSHURA (CONSULTATIVE COUNCIL) OH ISHURA IS BEING HELD TO ESTABLI

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SUPREME CO-KClL RANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT. TNl AGREEMENT REAFFIRMED THAT "GOOD MUSLIMS" FROM THE KABUL REGIME CAM BE INCLUDED IH THE SHURA, BUT IT DID NOT PROVIDE ANY METHOD FOR INVOLVING THEM. THE EIGHT TEHRAN-BASED SHIA GROUPS HAVE REFUSED TO SIGH THE AGREEMENT BECAUSE THEY WERE OFFERED ONLY ERCENT OF0 SEATS IN THEBELOW THEERCENT THEY DEMANOEO. AH ALLIANCE DELEGATION THAT LEFT FOR TEHRAN YESTERDAY WILL MEET WITH IRANIAN OFFICIALS AND AFGHAN SHIAS TO OISCUSS SHIA REPRESENTATION IN THE SHURA. ALLIANCE SPOKESMAN MOJADEOI HAS ANNOUNCED THAT HALFE ALLOCATED TO INSURGENT FIELD COMMANDERS,

,TS DIMINISHING INFLUENCE WITH THE INSURGENTS, WILl BE ENCOURAGED THAT PROSPECTS^ SHURA ARE IMPROVING,

MANY CONTENTIOUS ISSUES REMAIN TO BE SOLVED. INCLUOINC WHERE TO HOLD THE SHURA AND WHETHERG ZAHIR SHAH IS TOOLE IK TNE TRANSITIOHAL GOVERNMENT. SEVERAL ALLIANCE MEMBERS HAD OPPOSED GIVIHG THE SHIAS EVEN AS MANY SEATS AS THEY GOT-AND ARE UNIiMLY TO OFFER THEM MORE. PAKISTAN, WHICH IS INCREASINGLY

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Z JAN

N THEM ITS CH KABUL REG IKE TAILS.

ES FOR INFLUENCE IH AFGHANISTAN AFTER THE INTERNATIONAL) PAYMENTS TO IMF LAGGING

PAYMENTS TO THE IMF FROK HEKBER COUNTRIES CONTINUE AS OF ECEMBER. TOTAL ARREARS TO THE IMF HADILLION. UPILLION FROM THE LEVELf THEOVERDUE.ERE DELINQUENT BY MOREONTH. EIGHTACCOUNT FOR ABOUT SO PERCENT OF THE TOTAL OVEROUt AHD HAVE INELIGIBLE BY THE IMF FOR ADDITIONAL

IBERIA. PERU, SIERRA LEONE. SOMALIA. SUDAN. VIETNAM. ANO ZAMBIA. I

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OCLINOjWHT PAYMENTS TO THC IMF ARE BECOMING MORE FREQUENT. ANO ABOUT HALF THE APPRO*IMATELYOUNTRIES THAT BORROW FROM THE FUNO EXPERIENCED SOME DELAY LAST YEAR. IF THIS SITUATIONT WILL WEAKEH THE FUND'S FINANCIAL BASE AND UNDERMINE ITS KEY ROLE IN THE THIRD WORLO DEBT STRATEGYIN BRIEF

Ml DOLE EAST

K--ARAB LEAGUE MEETING IN TUNISIA DEALT BRIEFLY WITH LEBANON, SET UP COMMITTEE TO CONTACT LEBANESE PARTIES . . . FOCUSED ON PALESTINIAN UPRISING IN ISRAELI-HELD TERRITORY . .ROMISED MORE HONEY AND STRONG INTERNATIONAL LOBBYING FOR PALESTINIANS. g

I"CAR BOMB EXPLODED YESTERDAY IH BEIRUT'S SOUTHERNHIZBAILAH-SPONSORIO PROTEST OF INTRA-SHIA FIGHTING IN . . PRESS SAYS TWO SHIA CLERICS AMONG CASUALTIES

F^IDANEHTALISTS PROBABLY WILL ACCUSE AMAL DESPITE ITS DISAVOWAL.

EUROPE

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MINISTER THATCHER HAS ANNOUNCED MEASURES BEING TAKEN AGAINST BRITISH FIRMS SUPPLYING EQUI PRENT FOR LIBYA'S RABTA COMPLEX X. . . LENDS SUPPORT TO US CALLS FOR CUTOFF OF FOREIGN INVOLVEMENT X. . . LONDON REITERATIHG DESIRE 'OR NONMI11TARY ACTION.

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SEQRET

Original document.

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