Warning Page
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jepleir possible, fi the armour easy on lot
aonnouncement over the weekend thmt if would suspend prlnclpel pm/montsillion olillion debt bed been emlclpeted bi commercial creditor
i exchange hoJdlngs arebe announcement It is sldent Lusinchi may have timed lie criticism that he has been loo
Regardless of Caracas'abtaining new credits, the Venezuelan economy la headedi'hculi year. Oil earrings will probably rise only slightly, and budget-tightening efforts and strict bm-ts on imports are likely toOd recession. Anticipated retorm measSres. suchevaluation of the exchange rate and increases In government-set prices, probably wai push inflation tooercent level, as compared withercenta
o suspend woul
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Trying To Anticipate US Move*
Accent Panemjnien diplomatic moves seem intended to anticipate new US initiatives against the Noriega rep/mi
The recjmc-controiled press has speculated lor weeks lhat the new US admrnlstration would ease economic sanctions andolilical accommodation lhat would permit Defense Chief Noriega to remain In Panama
President-electeceni slaiement lhat Noriegas departureortfjiuon ol any resolution of the crisis may have raised regime concerns about new US action against Panama.*
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Panama Is trying to Improve relations with Venezuela and to enlif Mexican President Salinas's help In dealing with thc US.cting President. Soils Palma. hopes for an Invltaiion to President-elect Perei'sjnauqurailon next month
leanwhite, reports Perez is weighing an approach to Noriega to askjiim to step down. Perez mayilitary envoy to Panama soon toeeting with lhc Delete
.Norieoa probably la uncertain about what to expect (rem the new US administration. He Is Bkciy lo listen to what Perez has loPerez may oiler financial support for the presidential election in May and oiler to press for Panama's reentry into Ihe Group ofbut almost certainly would refuse to step down. Perez may decide lo invite Soils Palma to his inauguration in en attempt to Increase his Influence with the Panamanians and improve Ihe prospects for Venezuelan mediation.^smtsm
Panamanian military visil toSalvador probably is intendedUS Influence there. The Defense Cnlef apparentlyby the publicity given to his row in aiding Iherebellion In
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Seeking Condemnation of US
nisia.
Tripoli continue* to seek tnTcrnallonei coodcmn at ion ol the US tor the down jig ol its aircraft, lo the htghest level Soviot react-on thus far. Foreign Minister Shevardnadze. In Paris tor the chemical weapons conference, called the shootdown "air piracy" that could pglson the atmoefenere of the meeting. He said he would bring up the Incident in his meeting with Secretary Shutu. The UN Security Council continued debating Libya's complain; yesterday, and the Libyan Foreign Secretary arrived In Paris tor the CVV conference Demonstrations protesting the US action have taken place In Malta. Pakistan. Austria, Italy, and Greece, according lo presf
i Libya will press its case but not its luck. The Libyan Foreign Secretary Is almost certain to try to deflect criticism of Libya's CW program al Ihe Pahs talks by protesting US aggression. Mosi demonstrations appear to be locally generated by leftist or Islamic elements, although lhe MaltaInvolved the local Libyanhave been instigated by Tripoli. Libya probably will defer violent demonstraiions.andjerf prism for now iff" favor of itsP^iriliVPsBsssBsJpHHBssBtW
USSR: Announces New Space Nuclear Reactor
Georglyirector of the USSR's program dealing with nuclear reactors In space.ASS Interviewer Thursday about the flight testingew type of space nuclear reactor He said that two of Ihe reactors were launched lest year aboard satellitesthe Cosmos series and lhal one had operated for six months and the otherear. He said the reactors use thermionic converters lo generateowatlS Of electricity from nuclear heat The reactors, developed from an older design, ware testedigh orbit tohey would not reenter the atmoaphero before iheir rsdioa&lve fission products had decayedafe level. <
iryaznov's announcement came as he and others of Soviet dclcgeiebn were lo leaveechnical symposium in Albuquerque on space nuclear power. Its timing seems intended to promote an atmosphere of technical cooperation at the symposium.
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Amal Making Gains
lizbaliah is
accusing.lhe pro-Israeli Army of South Lebanon ol assisting Amal by shelling Hizballah positions, according to press reports. On Thursday. Amal announced that It has "prohibited" shelling ol northern Israel and areas controlled by the Army ol South Lebanon end will arresl violators. Sporadic Clashes continue In Beirul's southern suburbs, with Amal apoarently making some smalt gains, and lor the lirsl time since November, lighting broke out yesterday In West lielrut^^BPJsV
Commehfr The latest fighting may be Ihe result ot Amal's recent truce with pro-Arafat PLO forces, long one ol its major opponents in southern Lebanon. Amal may hope its decision to stop shelling the Army ol South Lebanon will also give It some breaming room to concentrate on Hizballah. The Army of South Lebanon probably Is noi coordinating actions with Amal but Is taking advantage of the confusion to hit the radical Shia group.!
JORDAN: Seeking Debt Rescheduling
A severe shortage o* foreign exchange will soon lorcc Jordan to ask creditorseschedule somej>IJia official foreign debt. This year's budget allocates only0 million lor0 million In debt-service paymentsjhal are due Ihis
lecause lenders are uneasy about Jordan's creditworthiness. Amman will receive only hail0 million loan for balance-of-payments relief j
Jordan has run out of realistic options lor dealing with debt payments that are nearly double the export revenue earned last year. Such key sources of income as worker remKlances and Arab aid Show no sign of improving this year, and Amman already has drawn down foreign exchange reserves to dangerously low levers. Few creditors, however, are likely to reschedule Jordan's debts until there Is an international framework thattandby loan from the IMF. Jordan in not enthusiastic about meeting IMF preconditions lor such assistance, but Fund olddals will_vlsltJunroan next month totabilization program.1
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TAIWAN; Allowing Trade Willi Communist States
Taiwan approved new trade regulations late last month that allow direct trade and technical cooperaiion with Cuba, Laos. Cambodia, and Vietnam. Earlier lasl year it approved direct trade with moat countries in Eastern Europe. Direct trade Is still banned with Ihe USSR, Norto,Korea, and Albania, bul indirect trade with Moscow through Bloc naiions will now be pcrmitter.
new regulations are partampaign oy thepressure (rom localdiversity Taiwan's export market, traditionally dependent on Ihe US. The move Is also an Integral part o( Taipei's more flexible loreign policy, designed lo allow It to expand ties to countries that recognize. he decision to Increase contacts with the SoWei Bloc may represent an attempt as well toationale lor greater economic contacts with China without violating ils policy olo negotiations, and no compromise" with Beijing.-
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In Drlol
diplomat sho! dead in Bangkok onanaar attack* onecentnkara.ssassins most kkeiy radical Sh.es, who promised to avenge Sauov eaecubon of louraboleurs in Scptomt
IfcHAMO ,nsurcents in tembique captured moreaWr Soviet. concerned rebels may part. threat to relief niohts. government's Soviet-suppled aircraft.
ordering subsidy culs. hellyany consumer prices Mondayay Increase cost ol living lor average worker by almosrlOeadership, trade union chief concerned about possible wave of strikes easaajaa*
America*
Cuban Foreign Minister Malmievca to vlCt China IS throughanuary . most senior Cuban visitor sinceprobably wn discuss increased trade and cultural contacts. African policy, develops en's ir Cambc-dia fflpfaaaa
Uruguay to hold referendumpril on repealing amnesty lor military accused Ot human rightsatest poll shows increasing support lorill begin intensive campaign against amnesty. sjBJflk* <
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Crackdown in the Caucasus
rmenian activists have been arrestod sinceccombor. Most leaders in key nationalist organizations havo been sentenced toays ot administrative detention, but criminal proceedings, whichenally of six months to three years In fail, have been Institutedumber olone Armenian activist 'rem Azerbaltan.
The Soviot Supreme Court recently published specific guidelines for prosecuting those who stir up ethnic unrest in Armenia and Azerbaijan. These guidelines strictly curias freedom of assembly and speech under such headings as spreading rumors and undermining trust and respect tor another nationality, as wen as by leaflets, placards, slogans, and organoing gatherings, meetings, and demonstrations. Troops have reportedly entered the university and polytechnic Institute In Yerevan to ensure that students attend classes.
A renewed press campaign againsi Armenian nationalist leaders has followed Gorbachev's tongue lashing ol the loadore e* power-hungry extramrtta during his visit to view earthquake damage last month. Some activists claim that an anonymousIn tho Armenian central paper late lastuse US-made Stinger missilesampaign of mass terror If (ailed Armenian nationalists are not released is disinformation intended to discredit the nationalists.
Airborne andops have rigorously enforced the stale of emergency in Yerevan. Ba'u. and othcr_voiaiile areas. Authorities used many ol the^BssaejasassssaVtrOOpS there toidnight curfew, arreiimg thousands of AfrneTtlans ano*Azerbaijani* for violations and Invoking thoovember USSR Supreme Soviet Presidium decree giving mattery commanders the right to hold Individuals for up toays without trial. Thousands also have been picked up on charges of illegal ownership,.use. manufacture, or salehich carry penalties of up to five years In prison. The Soviet military commandant says Ihat in the past month alone0 llreetms have been confiscated in both republics and0 turned In voluntarily.
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Special Analysis
in Csucasusaikety Torolonged
Tne stplltlcal situation In rfre Caucasus remains volatHe.'growing ant,-Russlan and antl-Gorbache* sentiments ere adding to the existing hostilities between Armenians and Azerboijanit. Continued threats ol violence end the confiscation ot large numbers ol firearms In both republics suggest Ihe unrest will continue despite mass arrests and the presence of security
Nationalist organizahons are now well established in boih republics and cannot be easilyarticularly ihe Armenian groups, which goi at least financial and moral aupport from elhnic Armenians abroad. Du,ing the yearlong unrest, suchthe Karabakh Commiliee in Armenia-have come to rival fhe local Communal parties Inrofile o' these organizations In Pravda last month called them inegaf bui noted they have Shown ihey can organizeance massdemonstrations, strikes, and even aitaeirscn milllia andc*rwjrnrnenthe military newspaper. AVasneya reezda. noted last week that the Karabakh Comnvttee and the Movement fortwo major Armenian nationalistrenewed activityew weeks after the arrests of their keyectmberfsJXPJl
The Prarda articleecret think lank in Azerbaijan mobiliied an alliance of workers, intelleciusls. students, and elements of the media, nujny of them Communists holding anponant positions, to mount the mass demonstrations againat the transfer orenia ihatovember. The anri-Russ*an. anti-Soviet sentiments of many demonstrators wore dear from tha portraits of irap's AyatolUn KhomeWil and the Islamic banners thai appeared in the crowds, symbols of Azerbaijani national ism
Soviet press reports indicate cross-border migration between lha iwo republics continues, fuoled by fear of violence and reprisals, moreeople have fled their homes, according to published Soviet estimates Violent confrontations appear- hkeiy because weapons seem lo beblo and cannot be easily controKed. The Soviet press noted recently that both sides had manufactured their own Krearms illegally: there isively black market in military hardware fJQfe
Moscow's Rosponse
Moscow's deploymenl -em and the arrest o' activists have for now stopped the spiral ol unrest and de facto military occupation has prevented communalin
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area since the earthquake Hundreds oi ndtionalisl leaders- ininducing most of ihe oiganiwi ot Ihehave been (ai'edoviet courts aie
pro^ecjiti tJC others connected with the ethnic unrest lassaaeaa*
Moscow'* dismissal ot hundredsartyoth ropubttca since November has not stooped coeu'-on between the tocai parties and regional nationalists.neikhail Goibachov tor thiseai to lhe leading 'oir* o( ihe oartv and to Moscow s
Challenges Ahead
groups
growing* concern that some ra<
Moscow has learned io liveegree ol Instability, and where It will draw the line ii unclear, it has already set certain limiis in the Caucasus: no large demonstrations or strikes, no communal violence, and no attacks on government targets and personnel. These limits have been hard to maintain, however, and some level ol violence will probably continue indefinitely
leaders seem to have may opt tor terrorism
Frustrated by their inability to gel results by political means,under attack front Moscow. Armenian activists haveWesieYn iournalistssrissVaaasseVessW some radtnere.s'e ready^tcrtake up aims agamsl notbut Russian targets. Armenian terroristexist outside Soviet Armenia, end al least one . . I threatr^ed_io avenge Armenlaafc Killed in
violence In Azerbaijan. VJ^I
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^lssBBlkMlaBjpj ssjBLflffTienrsn terrorists had maTie threats against ii^^aTtsaaa^SBssBBstJttii? present lullhe Caucasus may scon disappear as rocovery from the earthquake progresses and the February anniversary ol the arivpto unite Naoorno-Kflrahakh with Armenia approache> JerJFj*r'9as*aaasaaBSBsV ^
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Original document.
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