MIDDLE EAST BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 4 JANUARY 1989

Created: 1/4/1989

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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CHINAi STUDENT PROTESTS SPREAD

1. TAN: VfJRONTSOV'S. DtPlOrttTIC SCRAnBUNG,,

appear to be beginninc THE FINAL phase of

THEIR WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN. FIRST DEPUTY FOREIGN ATNISTW VOSONTSOV YESTERDAY COMPLETED HIS TALKS IN TEHRAN WITH IRANIAN OFFICIALS AND AFGHAN RESISTANCE GROUPS BASED IH IRAN; HE IS HEADED tOR TO MET WITH PAKISTANI LEADERS AND. PROBABLY, THE RESISTANCE ALLIANCE IN PESHAWAR. '

IN TEKRAM. VOROHTSOV TOLD REPORTERS THAT JUt-AFGHAN POLITICAL SOLUTION FVJST INCLUDE All CROUPS AhD CALLED CnTtHE RESISTANCE TO CESERVi THE CEASE-FIRE KABUL HAS PROCLAirtfD. HE ALSO CLAIMED THAT SOrlE OF THE PAKIESISTANCE PARTIES WTJUID ACCEPT THE

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PARTICIPATION OF FORMER AFGHAN KING ZAHIR. WITH WHOM VORONTSOV COHfERREO IN ROME LATE LAST MONTH.

THE SOVIETS HAVE ANNOUNCED THAT VORONTSOV WILL ARRIVE IH ISLAMABAD TODAY FOR TALKS WITH PAKISTANI OFFICIALS; HE IS TO MEET WITH-PRIME MINISTER BHUTTO ON SATURDAY. SOVIET MEDIA HAVE MADE NO MENTIONECOND ROJJNJL.QFKE RESISTANCE. ALL IANCE-

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f: URRENT TALKS ARE PARTESPERATE ATTEMPTTrj"COVER THE SOVIET WITHDRAWAL BY APPEAR IHC TO GET MOVEMENT UNDER WATEW AFGHAN GOVERNMENT BEFORE EBRUARY.-HIS REMARKS IN TEHRAN AHD THE SOVIET. FAILURE SO FAR TO CONFIRMEETING WITH THE PESHAWAR'ALL IANCE IS PIANNEO INDICATE* THAT HOSCOW IS TRYING TO HELP THE KABUL REGIME'S PROSPECTSONTINUING ROLE BY PROMOTING ANXIETIES AHD EXPLOITING DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE RESISTANCE AND ITS PATRONS. THE RESUMPTION OF THE SOVIET WITHDRAWAL. HOWEVER. REDUCES WHAT LITTLE LEVERAGE MOSCOW HAS IN ITS NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE RESISTANCE. WHICH WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CONTINUE.TQ REJECT ANT ROLE FOR THE CURRENT REGIMEEW GOVERNMENT. '

VORONTSOV WILL PROBABLY USE HIS SESSION WITH BHUTTO--HER FIRST AS PRIME MINISTERENIOR SOVIETLINK THE PROSPECT OF CLOSER SOVIET-PAKISTANI TIES TQ BESTRAINT BY ISLAMABAD ON AFGHANISTAN. THE SOVIETS. HOWEVER. HAVE ALRTaDY ACKNOWLEDGEDHEIR MEDIA THAT BHUTTO IS NOT YET STRONG ENOUGH TOAKISTAN'S AfCHAN POLICY. SHE WILL LINK IMPROVED RELATIONS TO COMPLETION OF THE SOVIET WITHDRAWAL AND WILL PROBE MOSCOW'S WILLINGNESS TO INCREASE ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE

HINA! STUDENT PROTESTS SPREAO_

AFRICAN-STUDENTAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT^COUPLE OF WEEKS, AHD AFRICAN STUDENTS HAYOUNTERDEMOKSTRAT!ON IN BEIJING TODAY. MEANWHILE, ABOUT SO AFRICAN STUDENTS REMAIN HOLED UP IH THE NANJING GUESTHOUSE WHERE POLICE BEAT SEVERALAID ON SATURDAY. THE DEMONSTRATIONS YESTERDAY SPREAD TO BEIJING. THE FOURTH CHINESE CITY TO EXPERIENCE RACIALLY MOTIVATED INCIDENTS IN THE PASTAYS.

ALTHOUGH TRIGGERED BY ANTI-AFRICAN SENTIMENT.ALSO REFLECT GROWING"FRUSTRATION AMONGOVER DETERIORATING SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC

ESPECIALLY POOR LIVING CONDITIONS ON CAMPUS. BLEAK JOB PROSPECTS, OW PAY. ANO THE LACK OF.POLITICAL REFORM. CHINESE LEADERSFEAR THE PROTESTS MIGHT TAKE ON LARGER POLITICAL OVERTONES AND SPREAD TO OTHER SECTORS OF SOCIETY. PARTICULARLY WORKER ELEMENTS. BEIJING THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CAMPUSES CLOSELY. AFRICAN STUDENT DEMONSTRATORS"AfiE LIKELY-TO TAKE THE BRUNT OF ANY GOVERNMENT CRACKDOWN BECAUSE BElJTHC^OOES NOT WANT TO STIR UP ANTIGOVERNMENT FEELINGS AMONG CHINESE STUDENTS. BEIJING PROBABLY ALSO HOPES THAT THE SEMESTER BREAK AT THE END OF THIS MONTH WILL HELP DEESCALATE TENSIONS.

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Original document.

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