SYRIA: ASSAD AND THE PEACE PROCESS

Created: 11/1/1988

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Syria: Assad and

. Warning Page

Assad and flic

Peace

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Syrian Presidentssad retains an almost single handed ability to undermine movementolitical settlement of Ibe Arab-Isradi conflict. Assad does not oppose ineaceful tesclution toyear ccr.fi.ct with Israel, butetermined lo block any peace initiative lhal docs "not fully consider Syrianibe return of ibe Golanattempts lo circumvent Damascus. To (his cod, Assad is prepared lo iniimidaie Jordan and tbc Palestine Liberation Organizationr provoke Israel,anner tbat would iialemate progressolilical aetllemeni not to his likine.

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ability to control events in Southis very limited, in out fudgmcnt Its behavior indicates Syria wants to see Israel repulsed from Lebanon by force of arms, but recogoiict lhat the con front* tun with Israel could escalate beyondon thc heels of increased cross-border eocrelicms by Lebanese and Palestinian ir slots. We believe Assad Is counting on Syria's improvedilily andink to Moscow to dissuade Israel fiom retailing against Syria directly. Assad's brinksmanship io the south could backSre. possiblyng another major Israeli incursion or longer term presence In soulbanon. .

Until Is Lebanon Wc believe Ibai Lebanon will remain ibe principal balucrrouod In Syria) confrontation with Itrael. Auad has chosen lo challenge Uriel ia Sou Ikraiber than on ibe Golan, in order to reduce the1 of open warfare with Uracils void losing Syrian lives io (he conllict, and limit tlic prospects for Uracil retaliation against Syrian targets. Activism on thc part of Lebanese and Pilestinun Arabs, erae cover, helaa foster the percepocn of Ibe universal and eader-ing nature of the Arab struggle against Israelhsl Asaad hopes will be irresistible pressure on Israel to come to terms wltl the Arabs.

Daasascus has sought to channel the enetgiea of lebaneac and Palestinianarticularly lhe Shia fundamentalist Hiiballah movement, into the confiontaiion with Israel and in surrogates in the security tone.

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