WARNING AND FORECAST REPORT: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Created: 10/27/1989

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

TERRORISM: BOMBING OF. PRESENTEDCT'S COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER

UTAROM BRAZZAVILLE TO NDJAMENA AND PARIS 2XPIXCED OVER NIGER ABOUT INUTES OUT OF NDJAMENA OK 14

SEPTEMBER. ALTHOUGHCLAIM THE APPARENT

LOCATION OF THE BOMB INDICATES IT WAS LOADED AT BRAZZAVILLE, WHICH HAS POOR AIRPORT SECURITY, THIS HAS NOT BP)FN DETERMINED WITH CONFIDENCE. THE DEVICE MAY HAVE HAD AN ALTIMETER TRIGGER SIMILAR TO THAT USED IN THE BOMBING OF PAIC3.

TWOTHE UTA OFFICE IN PARISRESS OFFICECREDIT FOR THE ISLAMIC JIHAD. THESAID THE BOMBING WAS IN RETALIATION FOR THE FRENCH-:v. ;*

CHADIAN RESISTANCE IN BEIRUT CLAIMED THE BOMBIMC WAS AIMED AT REMOVING THE FRENCH FRCH CHAD.

THERE IS NO HARD EVIDENCE LINKING ANY GROUP TO THE

BOMBING. PRIMARY SUSPECTS INCLUDE RADICAL SHIA ELEMENTS--INCLUD1NGPOPULAR FRONT FOR THE LIBERATION OF PALESTINE-GENERAL COMMAND. AND LIBYA. THE FORMERETWORK IKINVOLVING SOME OF THE LARGE LEBANESE SHIA POPULATION IN WESTSUSPICIOUS ACTIVITY BY LIBYAN OPERATIVES WAS OBSERVED BEFORE AND AFTER THE INCIDENT. LIBYAN INVOLVEMENT COULD INDICATE RESUMPTION OF LI3YAN SUBVERSION IN AFRICA BECAUSE IT IS AN EASY ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH TO STRIKE AT WESTESN TARGETS. THE INCIDENT HAS STRAINED FRENCH RELATIONS WITH CHAD AND CONGO, ESPECIALLY BECAUSE OF ALLEGATIONS OF LAX AIRPORT SECURITY.