NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR WEDNESDAY, 15 NOVEMBER 1989 -- EL SALVADOR: IMP

Created: 11/15/1989

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Implications of Fl Salvador's Slate of Siege

The state of siege decreed by President Crimani Sunday is permitted under Articlef Ihe Naadoiar. Constitution "in the event of serious, disturbances in the public order" and mii; be renewed eveno remain in effect. Former Presidentadtate of tietje thai he ultimately allowed lo lapse7 under pressure from civil sights groups and some foreign government Civilm could be alter led include:

Freedom of travel to. from, and within El Salvador

Frredoni of cipression.

Freedom of peaceful assembly.

In addition, nneicepled correspondence -including captured insurgent documents- can now be used as legal evidence.

Finally, the state of urge permits government authorities to detain suspected terrorists forays, rather than the limit ofours under Amde*ndf the Constitution.

m^aaor has Dcrn iitc unman uibar. attacks vioidd generate iiiblicil; for Ihc FMLNI las have also occupied ind have attached military lore'Mi.Oc and . ttacks suggest this I. aH-oul "final' nrTcnsiic Iircccnil> ns scstcrday. svmor gum ilia

The rchrl attacks lhal hrgan Sji throughout Ih' 1'althouf target Insurgent leaden cnlcuta vifinifiriini domestic and lniejoa

oases in nontivtn ai number of gucnala probablithe Ft lo unvrsi Ihc goscii

commander JoaquiriVtilatobo*mplo'cd all Snhadoranss" in rebellion. I

resistance remain in Sar Sal* aoor* northern and eastern suburb* Ihcappears to control most of ihrhere jary target in ihc capital sinceebels- have entrenched ihcmicives in rcr neighborhoods, including aicos near ihc es and abandon iftcir

in the nuii'ai> is high allies and Ilic quantliy the National Police noon andperator

at iomc abandoned iheir

Impu linns fnr flu- (imerninriK and (hi Military

|hr armed fixersuerrillaaslit anprarv. in tUsr hcvn caughl ofguardits magrHludcuerrillaone-thrrrj of ihc IMI.N'si^j

ctvttliiitttl

hove been involved in the attacks in San Salvador Although no military bate lias been overrun, the Army may be cntici/cd for its inability lo preveniargem

The situation appearse under control, bul events over iheewighl create problems for lhe Cnstiani government eliminating the remaining rebel strongholds, for rumple, might take days and expose the military to rtiatajcs offorce.alvador's artvd forces arc neither trained nor equipped for house-to-house combat, and the Kit Force is of lirrilcd use in densely populated areas atasssssssj

Implication* fur thr Rebel*

The rebels luccecdcd inell-planned, cooidmalcd offensivenrgc scale bul probably lost more than thev gamedic killedo wounded in the anacks. and the FMLN is spending ami losing laigc quantitiesof munitions. As they did aftci their failed election day offensive in March, ihe ^surgents probably will spend live ncal several months regrouping

The failure of the offensive ioopular uprising isow to the FMLN. TV insarrgenti' image had ahead* been urnished bv recent attacks against nonmiliiary targets, particularly the assassinations of go'cromc-ii olsciats and their laMlK-s.

The guerrillas probablv had hoped their offcnsnv would force concessions from ihe govrmmeni in futureiauont.wi|

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