DIRECTORATE Of INTELLIGENCE
The Tiananmen Incident: reliminary Look at Its ImpactT Modernization In ChinaF)
rackdown on prodamocracv derrsoriMrators in JuneChina! scientific community end strained China's sciencerelationships with the outside world. To counteractand foreign disaffection. Bailing la apparently retylngand Incraaaed military andin lino, and nos bean encouraglng-^mto return to Chine 8ej]jncjJ>ej_jiion^ meitms
lime. Beijing will probably hedge Its bats and stress self-reliance whilealternative sources of tecrmology
Beijmg. however, may have undereatimated the tmpect of the Tunsnmtn incident on us own Mterwiftc community if hardline policiesget worse--we enrpeci passive resistance, detections, end the
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number of ovaritis Chinese students electing to remain In their host countries to increase Thts guarantees that Bailing's shortage ol trained scientists will continue and. In our Judgment, seriously sat back China's aspirationsodern.ration. At the same time, new caution among Wostarn Investors.will slow China's attempts to acquire and absorb new technology.
Supporting Science and Democracy In China
Members olaior role in thedemocracy that uruptsd this Springreports Indicates that
students from almost all theepart me nts-and universrttes In China participated In tha demonstrations In Beijing and provincial cities. In fact, six of thetudent leaders on Selling's "most wanted" list are young scientists, in addition, hundreds of researchers from local and national scientific Institutions Joined the demonstrations,arge group from the Chinese Academy of Sciences Feng UiM. tha Chinese astrophysicist currently being sheltered at the US Embassy in Beijing.rominent symbol ofdlssent among Chinese intellectualsongtime and vocal critic of the regime.
heevyhanded attempts to bring the scientific community under controCmoreover, are likely to deepen the disillusionment with tha regime:
The Chinese press Indicates that some scientific and technical personnel wereu detained or arrested over the summer and others dismissed from their posisfl According to Chinesa press reports, the University ot Science and Technology in Anhui dismissed at (east i
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The InternationalCommunity Raacta
m* 'Q'eion SM commumt, nas 9Ho suffered
published Chineseoreoreign delegationshinese research Institutes7 atone. Out the crackdown has strainedthese
Hundreds of world-class scientists of Chinese descent who have enthusiaatlcallv niiiited Inodernization may now be reluctant to help BellingOP-member Chinese American Physlca Society, torthe crackdown!^
Thousands of foreign technical experts evacuated Chine, andendlui have returned r
absence ot these--and other technical persontechnology transfer protects and alow the acquisition of foreignbyersonnel
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Baiting Move) To Regain tho SAT Initiative
While Beijing it tightening ideological control over its scientists, we Delieve lhat tha Chinete leadership is also taking steps to reassure the scientific community:
Chinese officials have vociferously proclaimed thet thepolicy remains in effect end have stated that they continue to welcome visits by foreign scientists and technicians'
China, tor Instance, is for the flrsl time Inviting Western planners toIn Beijing this December to discuss China'sevelopment
Chinese are trying to entice US scientists. In particular, to return to China Deng xiaoping's decision to meet with US Nobel Prlie winner T. D. lee in September probably wasttempt to win reorganization'
has had some auccess encouraging the continued flow of Western technology and know-how to China Despite Western sanctions on ihe sale of military and strategic high technology to China, the sale of commercial technology to Beijing has continued
Bailing appeara confident that international aid will resume, that commercial technology dealings with the West will pick up. and that Westernfor the sale of military technology and equipment--will ease Nonetheless, we believe the Chinese will hedge their bets by reemphaiUing self-reliance while actively seeking alternative sources of technology:
hlneae media is playing up the achievements of China's defense scientists.'who were able to develop sophisticated weapons technology despite the withdrawal of Soviet technical experts in. hi our view, Belling la warning Ita scientists that they must be prepared to develop Thenfrastructure with leas Western assistance
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* The Chinese may Increasingly turn to the Soviet Union and Eeatern Bloc for selected technologies in such areaa aa aeroapace and nuclear energy, accelerating the dramatic expansion ofxchanges with the Soviet Bloc over the past few yean.
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Uncertain Prospects In the Long Run
We believe, however, that Beijing may be underestimating the impact or the Tiananmen incident on the Chinese scientific community. In the short-term, the climate ot fear end uncertainty thet the crackdown has generated will disrupt the Chinese scientific communriv and could increasingly lead to work slowdowns or even sabotage In the laboratory
If Beijing's repressive policies persist or If its attitude toward China's scientiststo en etrnosphere reminiscent of the Cultural Revolution where Intellectuals were blamed for many of Chinasresistance and other acts of defiance may become mo-re common. We expect for example, the number of Chinese defectors and refugees to Increase Zhaoeputy director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Wenead of the high-technology Stone Group in Beijing, have already defected, andhysicists, and other natural scientists have also applied for refugee status fl
returning from overseas study is
Thi- already seriou also likely to get worse
For example, the
straiien press reported that0 of0 ChlneSeTftudents in thet country have Inquired about staying in Australia after their student visas expire. We believe that Beijing's decision to publicise the returnhinese researcher from Australia this month reflects Chine's mounting concern.
Finally, ulthough China's technology dealings with the West are likely TOnew. major Incidents that destabilize thebelieve foreign companies are likely to be more cautious with their investments and contacts with the Chinese. Companies that were once willing to invest in unprofitable ventures in an attempt tooothold In the Chinese market are now more likely to make decisions
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Chinese Studying in the United*
Th* perpotuation of China's hardlinewilh (he loss of so many trained personnel and Beijing's penchant for Inefficiently utilizing its returnedthat China's shortage of trained scientists will persist end. In our judgment,erious blow to China's aspirationsodernization. Moreover, Beijing Is poying more for the International loans that It now obtains,with the new caution on the part of Wosternlikely to slow technology acquisition and absorbtion for the net! few yearsH H
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