NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER 1989

Created: 9/30/1989

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Contents

Lebanese Assembls Mccis in Saudi Arabia

Eastern Europe: Easi Germans Still Voting Wiih Their Feci USSR: Critical of Renewed German Reunification Debate

Philippines-US: Preparing for Bases Negotiations

Conservatives. Communists Block Socialist Plo> Hungary-USSR: Pozsgay Seeking Gorbachev's Blessing

Salvador: Insurgents Plan More Assassinations

Concerned Aboulm-iues

Thailand: Annual Military Changes Announced

Nicaragua: Opposition Coalition in Turmoil

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Assembly Meets In Saudi Arabia

Ubanese legis laioi, art muting In Al- Talf, Saudi Arabia, today

under Arab League auspices ro discuss polilical reform;

for reconciliation are at best lackluster.

urvivina members ofmcmbcr National Assembly were electednd pressure on these elderly delegates by the country'* powerful militias has increased markedK in the past week. Hizballah radio warned Shia legislators not to attend.

in July

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EUROPE:

Germans Sdtl Voting With Their In r

The continuing stream of East German refugees threatens ta further embarrass tke country's Leadership during nexth anniversary celebrations, and Bulgaria may hare begun enforcing travel restrictions less strictly than East Berlin would lif-e.

By Friday there were moreast Germans in Bonn's Embassy in Praguen thc Mission in Warsaw. Thc well-connected East German lawyer Wolfgang Vogcl. who successfully resolved previous sit-ins. so far has failed to persuade the refugees to return home in exchange for permission to emigiate legally after six months <WaaV

Bulgarian officials recently decided not to repatriate an East German couple seeking to emigrate illegally to the West through Greece:retried from ihe border area and released aasssssaaasajaaag*arlici ycai Sofia allowed an ethnic German couprcTTOQiRomania to emigrate to West Germany in response to Bonn's request for assistance, claiming ill assistance was providedne-time only basi i.

Vogel's failure may compel the East German leadership to acquiesceace-saving evacuation ofwould-bc emigres to the West under Red Cross auspices. Without new East German restrictions on travel within the Bloc, however, would-be emigres will com iuse Bonn's Missions as escape routes. The Czechoslovaks and (he Poles maintain that Ihe issue concerns only the two Germanlthough Czechoslovakia recently has been turning back Eastjans^at the Hungarian border to help hall the emigration flow,

It is unclear whether Bulgaria's tight border policy may be changing, but any such change would be significantrowing number ofnin Bulgaria and would quickly see ii as another potential exit. Sofia almost certainly wants to avoid the negative publicity Czechoslovakia got for Its forced repatriation of East Germans and probably has an interest in cncouraeJnB increased financial aid from Bonn.

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Critical of Renewed German Reunification Dcbah

strongly worded efforts to dampen the revival of the reunification issue in West Germany show both Its continuing deep opposition and its concern about the explosive potential of such discussionsime of reform and uncertainty in Eastern Europe.

In Im speech lo thc UN General Assembly on Tuesday.Shevardnadze claimed forces of "rcvanchism" arcrevise and destroy the postwar realities in Europe. He*thc spectre of Nazi Ocrman> and warnedof this irend.

also 'criticized West German discussion of reunification: one called East Germany an "inalienable link" in the Warsaw Pact and cautioned Bonn not to tr^jo^xoloit its current problems to destabilize.and annex*

rhc Soshave himcd for more than two years that their rTnflkjngon intra-Gcrman relations is evolving, but the receni revival of ihc reunification issue has caused them to underline forcefully their fundamental opposition to it. even at thc risk of offending the West Germans. Memories of World War II are still politically potent in thc USSR. Moscow alto shares the concerns of its East European allies and manv West European countries about the polilical and economic clout ofa uniied Germany and the possible reopening of European territorial disputes. 3

Thc Soviets probably are particularly anxiouseassure the East German regime of undiminished supportust copeassive exodus and growing domestic discontent. Moscow's longer term agenda with Westowever, is served b> hints of flexibility on the German question. When thc current furor abates, the Soviets probably will again soft-pedal iheir opposition to reunification and push discussion of improved political and economic relations betweenermany'sommon European home #JHBHaVflaPaVaaV|IH' 3

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PHILIPPINES-US: Preparing for Bases Negotiations

Aquino's agreement ihis week lo begin negotiations with

necemb"fVSbases agreement sets the

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Liberal Party head and Senate President Salonga. who had advocated closing thc bases as soon as ihc current agreementnnounced his part) nowradual phascoutn response.f thcenate membersonbinding resolution urging that no extension be permitted. Liberal Party stalwarts*have backed away from Salonga's position and are calling for anuma mi ing ol" ihc bases, paaaaaar 'V .<

House Speaker Mura had recently challenged the Senate toew bases agreement before voting onumber of senators, including Salonga and members of Mitra's own party, rejected his proposal, claiming thc Constitutioneferendum only after the Senate has ratified an agreement. Many senators are criticizing Aquino's statement that sheonbinding sampling of public opinion before the Senate considers any draft agreement.

Mitra probablyeferendum would reflect public opinion polls showing nationwide supportew agreement.thereby offsetting the senators' ami bases rhetoric and undermining the Senate's insistence that it alone will decide the bases' future. Although most senators probably judge (hat an immediate withdrawal of the bases would hurt theonsensus is growing in thc legislative and executive branches ihat thc bases should be gradually dismantled. [

Aquino's trip to Washington in November will be the next focus of maneuvenng on ihc bases issuepoliticians, other interest groups, and the*

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GREECE: Conservatives. Communists Block Socialist Ploy

Conservative New Democracy and its coalition partner, theLeft Alliance, apparently haveeal toparty <PASOK) efforts to change ihe election law beforeNovember legislative election. On Thursday lhc parliamentPASOK proposal torovision thai favors largerAlliance indicated il would not.oppose procedural obstacles aaaatMBaBsMMaVaMaa^B* Tbii

return for an ND promise not to change the law to favor larger parties if it wins in November oreadlock in the presidential election next March precipitates ji legislative election in the spt ing aajsWH1 i

ND's promise is almostue for Alliance support. While the Alliance would benefitore proportional election law. ittoonflict with ND that could harm ilt carefully cultivated image of respectability. The Alliance may believe that the ND wilt ekeajority and that its deal with ND will prevent the implementation of an even less proportional system that would reduce the Alliance's legislatis'c representation. ND's skillful maneuveringegal change ajg^^icarl) impossible toajority. fj|

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HUNGARY-USSR: Pozsgay SeekingBlessing

Hungary's lending Communiil reformer. Presidium member Irnre Pozsgay. travelsoscow ihis weekend on the eve of the Hungarian Communist pany congress to seek President Gorbachev's approval for his pUiform. It will be the first meeting between ihe two. fMi

V J Pozsgay haseeting with the Soviet leader for some time and. at the pany congress set io beginctober, will try to portray the visit as an endorsement of his reform policies. Moscow undoubtedly is uneasy aboui some of Pozsgay's views and will use the visit to probe his intentions; Pozsgay is likclv to be elected President in late November. In particular. Gorbachev win seek reassurance that Pozsgay will help protect the Communist party's prerogatives in key sectors such as defense and Internal .security and keep Hungary in the War

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SALVADOR: Insurgent* Plan Mure Assassinations

El Salvador's FMLN insurgents continue to attack government facilities and plan assassinations despite their public commitment to dialogue. JBBlMHBMHMMtfMVpB* rebels have survetllcd thc Vice President and the President of thc National Aisembl> for the past sis weeks in preparation for an assassinationinmWtfFMLN leaders plan to attack ARENA hardliner Roberto LVAubuisson's house orwith antitank weapons. An urban commando cellhas obtained aa* silenced pistols made for killing at close range. Initial reports indicate ihc military and the guerrillas have suffered relatively highcasualncssincc rebch began nationwide attacks on Monday.

Comment: Rebel plans and the acquisition of more sophisticated assassination weapons belie FMLN claims that the high command has not sanctioned political murders and that they arc conducted primarily by rogue dements. Moreover, the liming and coordination of this sveck's attacks suggest thc FMLN was preparing for them during the peace negotiations in Mexico City. Attacks arelikcly to continue as the FMLN attempts to press the government before ihc peace talks setctober in San Jose*

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PANAMA: Regime Concerned About Opposition Activities

Panamanian regime is considering the arrest of Democratic Opposition leader Guillcrmo Endara. who has beenunger strike for moreeek to protest thc new government and topromote thc opposition's financial boycott. Endara has been camped out in the opposition's headquarters since last week, while his running mate has been touring the Caribbean and Europe to seek continued support. Proregime thugs reportedly are littering streets near thc headquarters with nails to discourage groups of supporters fromBaaas^g Forces, in thc meantime, have closed two priming shops that prepared campaign leaflets for the opposition.-SaHa^aasVssaV-

^Bs^WBPaVThc opposition has been searching lor anrisky street demonstrations since the transition of powerSeptember, and Endara's fast appears to be capturingthan thc regime calculated. Defense Chief Noriega

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olher officials probably believe the threat to arrest Endarasupporters, but they will use force if necessary.of the financial boycott remains in doubtPanamanians suffering from cash shortages.werepayments./gj

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THAILAND: Annual Military Changes Announced

i hai General Chavalit will keep his posts at Army Commander and Acting Supreme Commander when the annual military rotation takes effeci on Sunday: he probablv hopes thisromotions will relieve trust ration among senior officers over his failure to retire two years ago as promised. Assistant Arms-Commander auchinda will move up to Deputy Armvnd several of his cronies will command key miliury regions. Air Force Commander Woranat. in an unusual move, will switch with Dcpui> Supreme Commander Kaset.^aaaaaC V?

mkmm.these promotions Chavalii has filled ihc senior milium positions with officers who arc likclv to suppon his eventual bid to become prime minister. Suchinda. who heads the aeeond-most-powerful group of officers, now appears in place eventually to succeed Chavalit. Hc and his peers, who include Kasct. will hc in position to begin assuming control of thc military as Chavalit looks toward retirCrDCnL, which may be as early as nest year.

NICARAGUA: Opposition Coalition In Turmoil

The selection this week of candidates for seats in.Assembly has increased tensions in thc National4 Union and prompicd thc defection of one of the largest Ihc Popular Socialunhappy with iu share of candidate slots, withdreweoahtionrealigned itself with the Social Christiannominally independent group that collaborates closely withregime. The coalition's sice-presidentialGodoy. was similarly angered by thc low number ofhis Independent Liberal

r: Opposition unity has been fragile since thc coalition was lormed earlier this sear. Internal divisions undoubtedlv will persist, and other panics may jump ,hip. If the defection of the PopularChristian Panv_holds. it will siphon votes from the opposition

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In Brief

America*

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Bolivia appointed first ambassador to Cuba since establishing diplomatic relationsppointee from ruling pany. which has longstanding Cubanresident Pag 2amora probably will expand economic, health coopci atiot.^BJBjgaj

Recent Polish think tana poll shows widespread support for Solidarity. Premier Marowiccki.ercent for. majority supports current coalition government, believesommunists less likely to stall reforms if included. aflHaa* ^

EC on Monday likely to-limit foreign programming on EC television toress says France. Netherlands now favor, turningnnual USjalesO million at risk, strict enforcement not likclvj

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