NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 12 AUGUST 1989

Created: 8/12/1989

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Oder* Help With Hostages

offer Hizballah spiritual guide Ayatollah Muhammad Husayn Fadlallah made yesterday lo help free Ihe Wt*trjRl hostages in Lebanon ts probably meaniefuse lhc sense of crisis surrounding Ihe hostage issue and to calm his followers during important Shia religious ceremonies this weekend. Fadlallah condemned Ihc US bui said. "We support the humanitarian cause of thc lArab and Western] hostages without ^ /

Comlher Shia cleiics and polilical leaders in Lebanon and Iran are likely to raise the hostage issue and the fate of Shaykh Ubayd. tbe cleric the Israeli* look from southernheir sermon* this weekend that commemorate the mariyrdom of Ihe grandson of ihc Prophcin Shia eyes lhe only legitimate successor. The celebrations are marked by emotionalassion piny, and ritual flagellation: sjjgoja , J

l-arllallah has religious authority but isey decisionmakei on the hostagec has made similar orTcis before bul usually distances himself from lhat issue. Fadlallah tells foreign visiiois and

members of hostages* familie* who seek his intercession that he has no direct knowledge of Ihe hostages or theire claimed, for caampJe. to bejmable to contact the hostage holders for ihe UN when US envoy. Mai rack Goulding. recently tried to secure Ihe bodycutenant Colonel Higgins jB ^ fa

EBA NON-SYR IA-IRAN-

uldrim

Hemwy artillery fire im Beitmt, which hai Ullttt*mhM atO people timet TAmrsJay modd tht US Embosty. it eroding tmpportfor Christian Primt Minitttr A>

The mai-fccd increase in artillery shelling* and the growing disarray in the Christian community notwithstanding, ihcre is noyrian ground assaull on the enclave is imminent. Damascus prBbably will try to coordinate Syrian and Iranian strategy in Lebanonroposed meeting between Presidents Assad andcj ti o

Tehran sees some opportunity in Ihe Beirut fighting to demonstrate its support tor Damascus, forge closer cooperation between Hizballah and Amal. and increase Iranian influence in Lebanon. But operations by Amal and Hiiballah last week were little more than token actions, both groups remain reluctant loarger role in ihe confrontation with the Christians The longstanding, deep-seateds between ihe two Shia groups will undercut the effectiveness of military cooperation, regardless of Iranian and Syrian ennnsH

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Siad Still Pursuing Military Options

President Siad. ttill skinning negotiation! in favor of repression ro ensure his regime's surrirat, is pursuiag alte'.natirr.yto Western rr.ilitary aid as fighting sprtadt throughout S- >mnit ,j tj 3

Icanwhile. government control ol ihc countryside continues io slip.

[Siad would haveore anti-Western agenda io interest Libya in providing substantially more aid. He may believe he can obtain arms from Moscow, but the Soviets BIe not likely to offer such assistance, gi.cn their ncs to Ethiopia and theji attempts io piomote peaceful scitlcmenis in the region I

Mogadishu may have written off Western military aid butto placate economic donors by easing its stance ondissident leaders are already inlaunching ainvestigation of abuses. Bul Siad is not likely to allowto implicate senior miliiary officials, including hismay have ordered theo 3

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EASTERN EUR OFF

ihc Withdrawal

Although 'ho transfer of' eeuipmtnt from departing tanksome So*iethe withdrawal of SovietEatrtm Europe is proceeding generally inorte reduction, .niriat.WJ

Last December, Gorbachev announced ihat six lank0 troops would leave Eastern Europefficial Soviet spokesmen later said thai departing units, including jhe six lank divisions, would take all their equipment with them.

indicate that lhe Soviet civilian committee monitoring the withdrawal expressed concern to hurstn that the West might view such aclivuy as cheating. Fursin reportedly argued thai Ihe alternative, shipping in Ihc large number of armored vehicles required to restructure remaining forces, wouldegative impression anO incur additionaln cost]

Despite ihe transfers of cQuipment and personnel.are proceeding generally in accordance wiihThc Soviets have retained in East Germany armoredand other equipment from withdrawing tank divisions,transferring regiments, they have withdrawn more tanks thanthe divisions originally. The Soviets have always indicatedrestructure the residual force, and activity to date hasconsistent with their stated plans. The concerns raisedcivilian monitoring committee, however, show an awarenessWest may conclude Moscow hj vjojaiing jhe letter if not theclaims

of

SOUTH AFRICA: ANC President Suffered Stroke

The stroke Ujai US Embassy sources say ANC President Oliver Tambo suffered on Tuesday comesritical period of internal debate on policy toward South Africa and mayeadership crisis. Tambo. whoas been reported as having high blood pressure and nay have hadtrokeeaaggjgMMr* is being flown to London. Thc ANC this weeketailed planeaceful settlement in South Africa to the leaders of the Frontline States, hoping thai the inlrntalional community will eventually accept itsmiwsMJ a 3

illness may intensify divisions within ihc ANC Over the timing and utility of negotiations with Pretoria just as the organization is struggling to seire the diplomatic initiative from the white regime. lambo is widely credited withalance between diploma) Thabo Mheki. chiefore flexible negotiating posiure. and Chris Hani, hardline chief of thc ANC's miliiary wing. For rlow. ihr ANC is likely to pursue thc diplomatic track. An indifferent response to ils proposals from Pretoria or Ihc international community, however, will undermine those who favor negotiations,Tambo'*military wing may quickly step into ihc vacuum. Thc ANC may try touccession struggle byeutral acting president, such as. during Tambo'sjt Jj

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ECUADOR: Borja Alter One Year

President Borja. who is beginning his second year in office, hopes lo maintain thc moderate, pragmatic agenda thai in recent months has helped avCn economicalUiye^ about his governingl{'y.tJHjBJHjjV|^

plotting in the military, initially rife because of Borja's left-leaning ideology, has abated. Even the conservative media, strongly critical of Borja at the beginning of his term, now credit him with adopting needed economicas raising gasoline pricesprovoking serious unrest. Borja has recentlyajority in congress by astutelyival center-left party, and the^BBaftbrlieves hc probably can count on legislative support for his program at least until the end of the

Borja's successes, his parlyough fight

to maintain itseats outn lhe congressional elections next May. To mollify thc growing numbers of disgruntled IcA-lcaning voters. Borja might weaken his commitment to orthodox policies and increase social spending.hift would jeopardize his chances of concluding pending multilateral loansneeded io

i Capita economicil yr.iTBBJMj

NAMIBIA: UN Offices Attacked

An attack against UN facilities in Namibiahursdayocal employee dead and may presagellirther^-ioUmceagainst UN personnel and political candidatesflJPfMHf^HBHJft; ;ggestighiwjng extremists were responsible, according to tlhas announced that ils President, Sam Nujt ret urn* to Namibia afterears in exile okugust,d anniversary of ihe group's armed struggle

H HVN personnel supervising Namibia's transitionhave been harassed before, but this was the firsiThe proliferation of weapons in the territory is raisingfor violence as the November election nears.smuggled weapons into Namibia for years, and thcmilitary has handed out many guns, especially afterincursionApril. Nujoma's impending return is likelyprompt SWAPO and leaders .if the Frontline States to intensifycalls for additional UN police.andjiijilary moniioisjoSWAPO jy J

USSR: Battle Joined Over Investment in Oil

The Soviets early this weekraft economic plan0 that calls for reducing investment in energy by as much asercent. On Wednesday, however, an articleeading economic newspaper advocated further support tothe key to spurring the slumpingj

(Moscow currently puts aboutercent of its investment

spending into the energy sector, but increases in enerojuoutput have

lagged far behind the growih in spending. For oil. in particular.

investment lias nearly doubledut production has grown

byercent. Curbing investment in energy would free large

amounts of resources bul risk severe dislocations in Soviet industry.

which is ill-prepared to slash energy use. Continuing to increase

Spending for energy, on Ihc olher hand, denies badly needed

resources to other sectors. The battle over investment is likely to

be inlcnse. and otherclaimants will be ouick

Pjajsaga^ .

In Brief

Middle Easl

Panamanian Defense Forces units dciained four US miliiary police vehicles and Iheir occupantsuickly released ihem following show of strength by US forces inegime meanwhile blasted US military "provocations" at the UN.f

Ruling-party infighting has led to rumors of coup attempt in Grenada early next weekoup unlikely, violence possible, especially if election not called soongovernment dcplflvir security units, seeking regional military assistance!

Vice President Luk'yanov to visit China next. il true, first high-level Soviet visit since Mayurther sjenMoscow will not let Chineststrifc derail improved

defense industry workers to switch to

producing consumer goods by nextessercent of ihai workirection richi. pace_too slow to meet leadership conversion

i It

Altering thc Playing Field

Iranian radicals arc once again showing themselves adeptan issue appear lo challenge ihc core precepts ofrevolution. In iheir eyes, the hostage questionmission to serve Islam by standing up lo Ihc US andIhe revolution through support of fundamentalist

The radical backlash has been more implied than explicit, as is usually the case in Iranian politics. Radical leaders do noi publicly use Rafsanjani's name Instead, they imply that some Iranians arc failing the litmus test for Hue 'eadership: loyalty to Ayatollah Khomeini's legacy. Since Rafsanjani's ipecchugust, the rash of assertions about Khomeini's legacy and Iran's duty to confrontS leaves no doubt aboul thc intended target.

Similar tactics of guilt by association Were used successfully against Kafsanjani during ihc Rushdie affair in February. The radicals argued that, by allowing Rushdie's book to be published, thc West hadtand againsi Islam and Iran

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Special Analysis

leadership on HostageUnder Attach

Pi ts idem Rafsanjani's offer io help the US resolve lhe hostage issue hat sparked intense factional infighting in Tehran. His radical opponmli are implying the offer betray, Khomeini's legacy; their aim apparently P" Rffianjanl dependent on their suppori over the long term.

The radicals* immediate objective is tolace in Rafsanjani's new adrniniMrationr-

Rafsanjani may now And it more difficult to dismiss the radicals, and those he does let go will have more leverage to continue the challenge By charging that the hostage issue is one of loyalty to Ayatollah Khomeini's principles, ihey hope to deflect attention from ihe rundown economy, an issue on which they are vulnerable because of Iheir opposition to foreign assistance]-'

ivision of opinion in the clericalKafsanjam's speechugust, there has been almost nosuppon for thc idea thai Iran shoulcLhclpijie US wiih theeacepi on Tehran's lermsp

ash its hands of thr assels violaie Iranian ideological principles

Indeed. attack more ex

would prciei Sealon terms ihat

strike

_ tafsa

indirect dialogue with the US

In ihe facettacks. Rafsanjani has retrenched

am wants to esiaWWi at least an

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continued9

The radicals' efforts to exploit the hostage issue for broaderends will severely limit Rafsanjani's ability to makeThe conflict is likely to continue for some time,practice has been to respond by bringing hisin wi-.Iijh.ise of hisI

Spe#al Analysis

Counttrnarcotlc*

Ihe drug scandal in.ol tiny General Ochoa and olher Cuban officer* broke in mid-June. Havana has moved io expand ilt anlinarcoiici efforts. Ukt Olher nations in Latin America, however, Cuba is severely hampered In combating drug smuggling by tactical weaknessack of eautpmeni, as well as by narcotics-related

Cuba has playedinor role In ihe drug trafficking between South America and the US. allhough its proximity to thc US mainland along major air and maritime routes has helped maleelatively secure conduit for some trafficking Two of three commercial air corridors through Cuba have regularly been used bynorthbouridan^craMo avoid USaWsaaiBa^LVLVLiiaBBBBi^'rafnctrrs use these corridors asshoncuts to drug transshipment areas near The Bahamas,ajor route to thc US for South American cocaine and marijuana. In addition, drug smuggling ships have exploited Cuban territorial waters andilc-widc buffer rone to elude the US Coast Guard frequently picking up drug cargoes dropped from aireram ^

Actions and Impact

Since Castro's announcement in June, fighter aircraft and Border Guard unns have reactedi least sixand mariiime ope rati

continued

Cuba Posturing Over Narcotics Interdiction

Cuban criticism of recent US statements on bilateral relations reflects President Castro's determination to resist pressnre for change even as Hnvana holds out theooperation on narcotics interdiction. The CommunisLPany newspaper Granm

[Said Mo.lday tnaill not

trade its "socialist" orientation for an agreement to comb.it narcotics traffickers'^^ hat Cuba will fight the smugglers alone if the US rejects its offer to work toRcther. it contrasted last month's execution of four Cuban officers for drug involvement with the "scandalously mild" sentences given US criminal offenders.

Despite (he harsh "thetonc, Castro probably would welcome coopeia'ion witl> -Vashington on interdiction because it would improve his image and might make possible accommodation in other areas of interest to Havana. If rebuffed, Castro is likely to intensify his propaganda campaign portraying Cuba's counternarcotics efforts as more serious than those of the US.

Special Analysis

SOUTH AFRICA: National Putty Faltering

South Africa's ruling National Party, hartifttn President Botha and party Itadtr P. W. Dt Klerk, hat been unabtt to cepiurt thtin campaigninght parliamentary electioneptember.

Tbe tensions, which date from Botha's stroke in January and the party's subsequent request that he resign the presidency, resurfaced this week when Botha announced he had no; approved De Klerk's plans for talks with Zambian President Kaunda onugust. Botha is irked by De Klerk's efforts to put his own stamp on National Pany policies and has refused to appear at. key official and pany functions orto do much campaigning^ ,

Leadership problems have hampered efforts to mobilize thegrassroots organization, and it has had to rely on ato counter aggressive campaigning by the Conservativethe proteform Democratic Party. The campaign his alsoby the retirements of five Cabinet members and over athe party caucus, some on charges of corruption. Asa result,rivals have grabbed the spotlight in recent weeks, portrayingriddled with corruption and sniping at itsplans forand if* handling of thej 3

The lackluster campaign is complicating the party's abilitythe Conservative Pany's growing appeal, especiallyAs the campaign progresses, the Nationalists arefocus on the more vulnerable Democratic Party in an effortthe increasingly important support of liberalRecent National Party campaign speecheshave focused on Democratic Party contacts withAfrican Nalional Congress, indicating ihat theis trying to exploit white concerns about sccuntya^

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