NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 10 AUGUST 1989

Created: 8/10/1989

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Contents

IsraH-Lcuanun-lran: Situation

Panama: Reacting lo US Miliiary

USSR: Russians Strike in

; Zaykov's Pany Prescription at Odd* With Gorbachev'! 5

China; Showing. Flexibility on Khmer Rouge

Thailand: Key Adviser to PHinc Minister

laoaa-Paklataa; Sikh Violence May Harm

Afghanistan; Regime* Campaign for Legitimacy Paying

South Koraat Opposition

Westoing After Drug

In

Changes in Defense Industry Continue

Afghanistan: Drug Threat Growing

t 13

LEBANON-IRAN:

uiiililnic in Security Zone

Israeli soldiers were woundedicicle car bombing mzone in southern Lebanon. Huballiili claimedthe nit airmailingledge of alle|ianceranian

Tel Aviv will want lo demonstrate ill hand* are nothostage crn.iV which luachpublicly have saidfor months, and almost certainly will retaliate for ihewiththc next few days.car bombing last Ociobcr provoked art air raidstrongholds in Ihc southern Bekaa Valley iwo daysIsraeli military response probably would renew thc spiralset off by thc kidnapping of Shavkh

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i IU 3

KvuciinK ilitary Maneuvers

incident' between Panamanian and VS forces show tht Panamanian military's mounting frustration artr largr US maneuvers.

Panamanian troops yesterday detained two US military policemen at Fort Amador,S military reaction force to take several Panamanian guards into custody there. Thc US and Panamanian soldiers were latcrVcleascd. Panamanian forces also harassed US military activitiesumber of other incidents yesterday. yZ>

Security forces brieflyS Marine armored vehicle participatingreedom-of-movemeni exercise on Tuesday.

[but withdrew after US

Units of the Defense Forces later tried toolumn of US armored vehicles in an area thc US and Panama jointly control. US Marines detained and later releasedanamanian civilians and soldiers, including Major Manuel Siciro, the local miliiary' zone commander and Defense Chief Noriega's brother-in-law. f

Panamanian miliury is conducting nationwide exercises called "Oust ihe Intruder" this week- Press reports say airborne assault troops uiing helicopters held maneuversS airbasc on Tuesday. Other forces have set up roadblocks, run convoys wiih

posuion among members of the Defense Forces BH^^[

cim rcasc In US exercises has clearly cnughi ihe attention of Panamanianho arc frustrated that they can not respond, but there is no evidence they blame Noriega yet. He nonetheless almost certainly feels pressed toay to respond to the US eserciscs withoutiolent confronution in order to maintain credibility with his supporters.I-

k>3

Nonega probably will iry- io use this week's cvenis forHe may increasingly turn to thc civilian militias loconvoys, both to reduce ihe risk ofa direct military encounterset up incidents between civilians and US troops to fan

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i

iussians Strike In Estonia

Ethnic Russian workers in Estonia went on strike >cticrday loew election law disenfranchising recent immigrants and soldiers, most of whom are Russians. More lhanaculties, two freight railwa) stanona. and cargo flights atponnflcctcd. Thc strikers demanded that Moscowommission to investigate the situation inpokesman for the Russian activist group Intcrmovcmcntsivlc revolutionaw making Estonian thc rcpubhesofficial language is noi repealed. On Tuesday thc Estonian legislaturewo-year residency-requirement for voting in local elections this December, despite warning strikes by Russian workers late last month BfflBfJ| ^

Russians inaheworried by the Estonians' growing successtheir nationalistic program lor republicfear the Estonian electoral majority will pass furtherthey regard as aimed at driving them out of the republicfrustrated thai Moscow has done relatively little onnow evidently hope to provoke central intervention.Inter movearning, however, the probabilii* ofis remote, and Moscow for now appears unlikely io dourge both sides to compromise. 3

ZaykoVi Party Prescription al Odds With Gorbachev's

Moscow party chief Lev Zaykov yesterday called for more unityCommunist Party and Tor its continued dominant role inIn an article in franta, hc urged lhe party to restoreby strengthening internal discipline and by exploitingaccess more aggressively io publicize its positions onZaykovcccni call by lower-ranking partva sharp reduction in the party's rankseans to solveand the country's problems. As an alternative, hetraining forloggird pan>

Iall for party unity and greater guidance from thc

center responds lo complaints from party members, espcciallv atlevel, that the lack of direction from Moscow is weakeninginfluence in society. In contrast. General Secretaryother reform-minded leaders believe thc way for the partvits prestige is to give the localities greater autonomy.on retraining party workers also suggests that he favorspersonnel changes lhan does Gorbachev, who lasta turnover of elected party officials atany purge probably reflects aGorbachevll iry to follow through onthreatpersonnel changes, possibly ai ihe nationalities jifcnum for next month.0

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CHINA: Shotting Flexibility .in Khmer Rouge Role

__JBeying is using us first appearance at an international toium since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in early June toesponsible international player willing to help bring pence to Cambodia. Its new initiatives arc casv concessions caleut international support. I

THAILAND: Key Adviser in Prime Minister Resign*

One of Prime Ministerey advisers on Indochina. Dr. Sukhumphan Boriphat. resigned his post Tuesday under pressure from Thm Anm officers incensed by his criticism of the military.krm} v caTnorThatcliJi to crack down on government graft provoked Sukhumphan and contributed to hi* resign aiion.|aBBBjJBaBj

to August

. hati rial undoubtedly accepted Sukhumphan's quiekTyTO placate Chavalit, who wants to succeed Chatchai asForeign Minister Siddhi ma>ost,Sukhumphan has advocated abandoning Siddhi's hardCambodia in favor of recognizing thein Pltnom Penh. Siddhi probably hopes that he candifference* with Cliatchai on Indochina out of thc publicassen more controler Bangkok's foreign policy, evenmay retain some influence withnnerPrime Minister is almosttlrsl in dealing with Indochina

INDIA-PAKISTAN; Sikh Violence May Harm Relation.

Heightened Sikh violence in northern India in the past two days could sharpen Indian fears of Pakistani support toSikh terrorists and undermine attempts to improve relations. _

a bomb explodedus bound for NevvDelhi yestcroay. hilling ai leastndammu City in the state of Jammu ands placed under indefinite curfewikh attack on Hmd.i* killed five,nd sparked widespread violence.

Jlncreased Sikh terrorism and allegations of renewed 'akistam suppon will make it difficult for Prime Minister Gandhi to improve relations with Pakistan. Sikh-Hindulolencc outside its usual locale in Punjab and extensive press coverage will makelncrablc to opposition charges thai he is ignoring national sccuriiv.

iu (kugast

II KOREA: Opposition Ktcroupinc

Willi ihc approachational Assembly bjclcciiort in Seoultlic two main opposition panics are irymi to rcfocuton the ruling camp, which recently hat taken Ihcihem. Opposition leader Kim Dae Jung speaking TuesdayralK of moren Seoul,treetIhc ruling pany next month if President Roh doc* notfrom lhc Chun era who have been accused ofcorrupiionrightspokesman for the Reunificationof Kim Voting Samimilar warningcrda> but H^HaaBBBBBBBBBaBBBBBBBa' I

ruling-pant officials believe public intcrcti in thc Chun is*uc is waning and arc hinting Roh may declare lhc matter closed.bbbbbiV

H nopposition's investigation of ihc misdeed* of ihc past regime has been its most effective weapon against Roh *ince last fall, and thc two Kims are unlikelyive it up. Kini Dae Junghopes reviving theuc will quiet thc uproar over accusations lhat one of his party's luwmakcn who secretly visited North Korea last year also spied for P'yongyang. Kim Young Sam is probably gelling back into ihc fray to counter recent charges from within his party thai he is going soft on Roh. The opposition may view the large turnout for Kim Dae Jung and recent media commentary critical of thc government crackdown as evidence thai ihc rulinsicsmp hat miscalculated popular sentimcnt^^mm^^

WEST GERMANY: Going After Drug Profit*

The West German cabinet hasroposal for legislation establishing an estate line against convicted drug traffickers lhat will aid Bonn in targeting lhc vast proceeds of the drug trade. The legislation providesonetary fine of a* much a* the full value ofa trafficker's i

Thc proposed legislationtronger weapon

ajor traffickers because it avoids ihe need lo distinguish between legally and illegally obtained assets.esult, it probably will be subject to constitutional challenge in the West German count. Thc draft law, which will probably pass thc Bundestag as part ofa package of new money-launderinghows Bonn's determination to attack the financial structure of lhe drug trade. Thc overall reform* have already received support from West German banking associations and are panegional effon againsi drug trafficking and money laundering. This will also bring Weft German law into compliance with the UN convention againsi faapg trafficking eai

puu

Middle

buulh

Frontline Sum meet todaymblaikel> lo discuss South Africa'snculan icconriliation. Namibian transition ioia> endorse Mo<aniblran peaceeach onsensu* on ANt* negotiating strategy toward

Georgian legislative subcomnmsion has found killing* of Tbilisi protesters in April unlawful, saysepublic's leadership faulted for pohcj failure, military alsoSSR Supreme, Soviet commiision's finding* on episode not vV?

planning to transfer lens of thousand* of recent college graduates to low-level ruralalls for one- to two-year lours.rogram left intellectuals in countryside for decade.l

Prru*ian Government tomorrow imposescrcenton all checkingopes to raise some SJO million perankers, fcanne large deposit losses, cspcjtt imrnsilicd Im uncial instability ^1

Top* xy3

10IM*

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Olher Development* Affecting Soviet Defense Industry

Iransfer of plants from defense Industry In cMI machine

According io I'renner Ky/hkov. ihe eliaimirn of ihc Bureau for Machine Building and the Miliiary Industrial Com mission arclan lo iransfcr0 defense iiuiusiry plums io ihc civil machine buildlns secior io build machine tools. AJso. some plants Irom the defense industrial commumcalion* equipmeni ministry are io be transferred to lhe cuil eummunieatiorts ministry.

Ministerial

The Ministry of Radio Industry absorbed the Ministry of Communications Equipment Industry, and Ihe Ministry of Machine Building was meriicd inlo the Ministrv of Defense lndu*lis.

Callonversion plan

The Congress of People's Deputies, which clcci* Supreme Soviet members, has called lor the Council of Minister*ational consersion plan by the enduri) Maslyukov. newly conhrmcd chairmnn of thc Slate Planning Committee, has promised to meet that deadline.

The Imposition of,

Thc existence of the Council of Ministers Miliiary Industrial Commission seas acknowledged publicly for Ihc first time during confirmation hearings. Subsequently, several deputies have calledeview of its activities.

MInlsterlali

There arc Ihree new defense industry ministers.orbachev has changed Ihe heads of all of ihe sector's ministries at least once, largely because he wanted to move the minister* io civil industrial ministries or to national-level economic posts. Allhough ihe new ministers follow the pattern of rising through the ranks of defense industry plant* and subsequently their respective ministries, frequent change is newecior where minister* normally have served long terms in office

Mataatanal

III9

Special Analysis

In Defense Industry Continue

changes ia the defease industrial sector came to light during the? recent Supreme Sarin session, in presenting his net. streamlined government. Premier Hyzhkot announced the sector would get more responsibilities far civilian production, strengthening its hand in the economy. At the same lime, the new legislatureefense and State Security Committee, suggesting that defense industry is inreater degree of accountability than it has been accustomed to. BJHBJ

Ryihkov achieved hit leaner Council of Ministers by eliminatinginistries and state committee* and transferring their rc*pon*ibililies. The number of miniitries in detenteeduced from nine to seven by merging fourof them inio two. but thc chairman of thc Military Industrial Commission said lalcrthai the Ministries of Civil Aviation and Communications were added to the sector. Defense industry also look on additional civil obligations as thc Ministry of Medium Machinenuclear weaponscharge of the nation's nuclear power industry by absorbing thc civil Ministry of Atomic Energy and the State Committee for the Uuliiation of Atomic Energy. Kyrhkov also announced that the Ministry of General Machinecharge of space and missiletake responsibility for the

Defense Industry'* New Civilian Responsibilities

These new obligations poiniuch greater level of defense industry involvement in civil programs and indicate the sector isew dimension to its responsibilities. In addition io ils new tasking from the Supreme Soviet, lhe sector is responsible for retooling food processing and light industry and increasing the production of consumer goods. Demands io help lhe civil sector no doubt will increase If improvement in consumer welfare continues

io lag.

ll i* unclear whether defense industry'* new civil obligations will make enough difference to achieve Ryihkov's stated goal0 production split in favor of civil goodscsubordination of civil plants and the absorption of *omc civil ministries will no doubt help achieve lhe goal. Altitudes on conversion wiihin ihe sector probably are mixed; high-level defense industry official* may regard it favorably because Ihe new civil demands arc primarily high-priority programs ihat enjoy high status in leadership interest and

contiMted

2oTuavii

investment allocations, but many enterprise official* pcubably arc concerned about (lie potential erosion of their most-favored status and privileges. Regardless of Ihcir views, everyone ismcrncd about the disruptions thatill ensue .

Defense and State Security Committee

Thc most unsettling event for those in Wc defense industry probabh was the creation of lhe Defense and State Security Committee. Thc sector is accustomed to strong oversight of its weapons-related aciivitics, bui ihai has been conducted behind closed doors by party and government official* who understand the settor's sensitivities. The new committee, wliich will oversee the military and thc KGB as well as defense industry, has shown it is willing to assert il* auihom>.

cscn though Ihe membership is weighted toward military interests: it*

chairmanareer defense industry designer andhird of itseputies arc military officers or defense industry representatives. During confirmation hearings, committee members grilled thc

candidates for Defense Minister and for the defense industry' ministries. To gain approval, the latter had to affirm their acceptance

of conversion and explain how they would implement it in their

enterprises HffMffg

Although thc composition of its membership suggest* the committee would favor safeguarding traditional miliiary and defense industry interests, the committee so far has demanded increased accountability from the military and Ihe defense industry on implementation of reforms and on increased attention to civil needs. This aggrcssis'c thrust has led to the emergenceispute os*er the committee's Jurisdiction. When the chairman told ihc Supreme Soviet that the committee wouldange of issues, including defense sufficiency, thc defense budget, weapons acquisition practices, and the actis-ities of the Military Industrial Commission, President Gorbachev* reminded him of the limits on the Supreme Soviet's power* and of the primacy of the Defense Council on all military-related matters. The committee may plan to Hex lis muscle* over the military and defense industry but might be thwarted, cither

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