EUROPEAN BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 03 AUGUST 1989.

Created: 8/3/1989

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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SUBJECT: EUROPEAN BRIEF FROHiPAS CONTENTS

LEBANON; SITUATIONkV

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USSR! GORBACHEV TRADING ON FOREIGN POLICY Jr..

POLAND: ROUGH ROAD AHEAD FOR NEW PREMIER it. YIKOSLAVIA: RECALL 01 ENVOY TO US IV^V

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INTERNATIONAL: CRUDE OIL PRICES SL: ^

USSR: REFORMERS SOFTER LAM ONOV-rtr ACTIVITIES

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REPORT

I. LEBANON: SlTUATIt HOSTAGE CRISIS

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THI HOSTAGEM AINS TENSE WITH HIZBALLAH AND n

Approved for

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SENICS HiZIAUAN CLERIC ABBAS MUSAWI YESTEROAY PUBLICLY WARNED THAT. IF THE US CARRIED OUT Ml LI TART ACTION INIZBALIAH'S REVENGE WILL BE VIOLENT" AND THAT "HIZBALLAH'S HANDS CAN REACHE ALSO CONTINUED TO PRESS FOR SHAYKH ABOUL KARIM UBAYO'S RELEASE, IMPLICITLY THREATENING THE- ISRAELI SOLDIERS TAKEN CAPTIVE USAWI DID NOT, HOWEVER, REITERATE THE THREAT TO

(EN CAPTIVEUSAWI DID NOT. HOWEVER. REITERATE THE THPEA' KILL uSit TCOai IF ufll'D ISC AS

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LEADERS APPEAR ACUTELY WORRIED THAT UBAYO'S INC

TEL AVIV IS PUTTIKC CONCERN FOR ITS OWN HOSTAGES FIRST ANO WILL CARRY OUT ITS THREAT TO RETALIATE If THEY ARE HARMED. REGAROLCSS OF THE RISK THAT WOULD POSE TO THE REMAINING US HOSTAGES. HIZBALLAH, fOR ITS PART, WOULO BE UNLIKELY TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN AN ISRAELIS ATTACK ON THEIR POSITIONS. "

SOVIET RESPONSE

IN TALKS WITH IRANIAN PRESiOENT-ELECT RAFSANJAN I IN TEHRAN THIS WEEK. SOVIET FOREIGN MINISTER SHEVARDNADZE EXPRESSED "SERIOUS CONCERN" OVER THE EXECUTION OF HIGGINS AND THE KIONAPPINGCCORDING TO TASS. THE TWO OFFICIALS CONDEMNED ACTS Of TERRORISM ANNOUNCE0 PLANS TO CONTINUE TALKS ON LEBANON AT THE EXPERT LEVEL.

THE SOVIET FOREIGN MINISTRY LATER ISSUEO AN OFFICIAL STATEMENT THAT COUNSELED RESTRAINT TO ALL PARTIES INVOLVED IH THE HOSTAGE CRISIS ANO VARNEO THAT ESCALATED VIOLENCE COULO UNDERMINEETTLEMENT IN LEBANON ANO BLOCK PROGRESS IN THE ARAB-ISRAELI PEACE PROCESS. TASS HAS REITERATED THOSE THEMES TATEMENT ISSUEDALL FOR THE .JiiQEpLATE RE

COMMENT: MOSCOW IS PROBABLY GENUINELY CONCERNED THAT rllLITAfir STRIKES IN RETALIATION fOR THE EXECUTION Of HIGGINS COULO OISRUPT ITS EFFORTS TC CONVINE AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE ARAB-

THE SOVIETS HOPE TO CONVINCE THE US THAT THEY OPPOSE TERRORISM AND THAT THEIR NEW LIHKS TO TEHRANONSTRUCT IVE. .MOSCOW WOULD WELCOME CREDIT FOR HELPING RESOLVE THEJOSTAGE CRISIS, BUT IT WILL

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ARTFUL HOT TO JEOPARDIZE SOVIET TIES TO IRAN OR SYRIA BY PRESSING TOO NARO FOR CONCESSIONS. THE USSR IS ALSO SENSITIVE TO FEARS IN SYRIA ANO IRAN OF SUPERPOWER COLLUSION. ANO IT WILL TRY TO AVOID APPEARING TO BE AN ADVOCATE OF US VIEWS ON THE HOSTAGES. flgr

SSR: CORBACMCV TRADING OH FOREIGN POLICY SUCCESSES

PRCSIOENT GORBACHEVS SPEECH ON FOREIGN POLICY TO THE SUPREME SOVIET ON TUESDAY SUGGESTS HE EXPECTSY TO HELP PUSH HIS FORE ICR ANO DEFENSE POLICY INITIATIVES MORE AGGRESSIVELY.

GORBACHEVLOWING ACCOUNT OF HIS MEETINGS WITHOTHER COUNTRIES. EXPLICITLY REFUTING CRITICS WHO HAVE ACCUSEDSPENDING TOO MUCH TIME ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS ANO MAKING TOOTO THE WEST. HE SAID FORE IGN ANO DOMESTIC POLICIESLINKED AND SUCCESS OR FAILURE IN THE ONE ARENATHE OTHER -

IMPLICITLY'EMARK BY DEFENSE MINISTER YAZOV IN ICHDON LAST WEEK, GORBACHEV CREOITEO THE WESTERIES OF RESPONSES TO UNILATERAL SOVIET MILITARY CONCESSIONS. HE INCLUDED THE LEVELING OFF IN US DEFENSE SPENDING, TNE WITHDRAWAL FROM EUROPEUMBER OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS, AHO THE POSITIVE US RESPONSE TO SOVIET CONVENTIONAL ARMS CONTROL PROPOSALS.

GORBACHEV INVITED THE CONGRESS OF PEOPLE'S OEPUTIES, THE SUPREM! SOVIET. ANO ITS REliVANS COMMITTEES ANO COMMISSIONS TO HELP ENSURE THAT THE USSR STRICTLY ABIDES BY ITS TREATY COMMITMENTS. HE IMPLIED THAT PAST COMMITMENTS HAD BEEN VIOLATED BECAUSE THE

ICAL LEADERSHIP LET THE mr

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THE SOVIET PRESI

.IMAGE, NOTIHC THE POLITICS.

CHANGING THC USSR'S FORE ICH ECONOMIC POLICY. CLAIMING IT WAS MUCH "ORE OIFFICULT THAN DEALING WITH HUMAN RIGHTS OR ARMS CONTROL. HE ALSO PLAYED UP_HIS OWN HOLE IH CHANGING THC USSR'S INTERNATIONAL

IMPORTAHCE OF PERSONALITY IN CURRENT INTERNA!IOHAL

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GORBACHEV EOT FEW SOFT QUESTIONS IN THE SESSION AFTER HIS REPORT. HEEPUTY THAT THE LEADERSHIP HAD AIREAOY OECIDEO TO CUT TEMS OF WIAPOHS PROGRAMS AHO WOULO BE_SOL ICITIHG THE SUPREME SOVIETS ADVICE ABOUT ADDITIONAL CUTS.fHW L

^SflNMfeTHIS WAS GORBACHEV'S FIRST APPEARANCE BEFORE THE SUPREME SOVIET IH RESPONSE TO THE NEW BODY'S REQUEST. AND HE USED IT TO TRY TO RESTORE NATIONAL MORALE AHD HIS OWH IMAGEEADER.

OLAHOl HOUGH ROAO* AHEAD FOR HEW PREMIER

NEWLY CONFIRMED PREMIER KISZCZAK. PRESIDENT JARUZE1SKILOSEST POLITICAL AIDE, FACES WHAT HE HAS TERMED SEVERAL CRITICAL

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TRY INC TCABINET, SIT (tQwQiiC POLICY. ANO SEAL WITH 'OTENTIALLT EXPLOSIVE PRICE

HOST COMMUNIST AHO OTHER COALITION DELEGATES SUPPORTEO POSITION VOTCO AGAINST Ml"ASSE. HE UNITED PEASANT PARTY HICH HASNISYS. BALKED AT THf NOAINATION 8Ul fOEO THE LIKE AFTER NS WITH KISZCZAK AID JARUZELSKI. ELECTINGREMIER WAS ALSO COMPLICATED BY THE BITTER PARTISANATS OF SOME SOLIOARITT OtLECATCSC- FORMER PREMIER

IWITM THE TOP GOVERNMENT POSTS CONTROLLEO BY TWO ASSOC IATE0 MILITARY MEH. JARUZELSKI ANO KISZCZAK. THE COMMUNIST PARTY PROBABLY MILL CONTINUE SLOWLY DECLINING IN IMPORTANCE. THE UPP'S MANEUVERING WAS PART OF EFFORTS TO WIN CABINET POSTS. EPUTY PREMIERSHIP ANO POSSIBLY THE FOREIGN MINISTRY TOOICE IH AGRICULTURAL POLICY. ANO TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF PRIVATE FARMERS' SOLIDARITY. AH IMPORTANT ELEMENT IH THE OPPOSITION. BOTH JARUZEISKI ANO KISZCZAK WILL TRY TO BUILD OH THEIR PERSONAL RECORD OF .HCGOTIATIHG WITH SOLIDARITY LEADERS TO WOO OPPOSITION SUPPORT FOR NECESSARY TOUCH BEFOHMS: KISZCZAK HAS ALREADY SAID HE WILL TRY TO BRING OPPOSITION FICURES INTO HIS GOVERNMENT.

THE OPPOSITION HAS FEW IHCCKTIVIS (OR COOPERATION ANO WILL ATTACK THEROGRAM, CITING THE PARTY'S REPEATEO ABUSE OF POVIR. MANY OPPOSITION OILIGATfS APPARENTLY BELIEVE THE KISZCZAK GOVERNMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED ANO PROBABLY REALIZE THAT SUPPORTING THE REFORM PROGRAM MIGHT ALIENATE LARGE PARTS OF THEIR CONSTITUENCIES. PLANT CLOSINGS. FOR EXAMPLE. WOUU ANGER WORKERS. UO REMOVING FOODS COULO OlVIOt URBAN CONSUMERS FROM FARMERS IN OPPOSITION RANKS.

KISZCZAK PROBABl* HOPESREATH INC SPACE AFTER TUESDAY'S PRICE HIKES TO PUT TOGETHER HISMnt NT AND TO ENUNCIATE ECONOMIC POLICY. MOST OBSERVERS. HOWEVER. PRC01CT WIDESPREAD UNREST AS THE FULL FORCE OF THE HIKES HITS IN CO*IHC WEEKS. SOLIDARITY LATER THIS HCKTH ALSO OBSERVES SEVERAL IMPORTANT ANNIVERSARIES THAT HAVE SPARKED MASSIVE DfMQNSTRATIONS IH THE PAST. TNE IMPEACHMENT PROCEED INGS AGAINST AAKOWSK* MAY ALSO SIGNIFY THAT DEADLOCK ANO BITTER CONFLICT ARE MORE LIKELY THAN POLITICAL COMPROMISE IN IHE HEAR TERM.

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YUGOSLAVIA: RECALL OF EHVOY TO

BELGRADE'S RECALL OF AMBASSADOR KOVACEVIC FROM WASHINGTON OH TUESDAY IS INDICATIVE OF SERBIAN STRONGMAN MILOSEVIC'S EFFORTS TO INFLUENCE YUGOSLAV FOREIGN POLICY IN WAYS LIKELY TO HARM RELATIONS US

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OVACIVIC'S RIMOVAL LOW-KEY TREATMENT, but UT WAS PROMPTED MAINLY BY SERBIAN OFFICIALS. THE 5ERBIAH PRESS. WHICH MILOSEVIC CONTROLS. HAS ATTACKCO KOVAWVIC ANO FOREIGN MINISTER LONCAR IH PAST MONTHS FOR FAILING TO ADEQUATELY DISPUTE WESTERN CHARGES THAT SERBIA IS VIOLATING THE HUMAN RIGHTS OFLBANIANS IN KOSOVO PROVINCE. THI SERBIAN REPUBLIC ALSO HAS ISSUED ATTACKS ON US OFFICIALS. OPPOSED KEY FOREIGN TRAOE LEGISLATION PHQPQSIO BY PREMIER MAAKOVIC IN HIS ECONOMIC REFORM PACKAGE. AN= INCREASED FOAtlGa VISITS AND PRESS STATEMENTS BY THEPREVIOUSLY MORIBUND

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THEELGRADE WILL SERBIANIKELY TO 0!UGOSLAVIA MAY AND ACR!(RENT ATTACKS ON MAR

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THI US.OSOVO. ANDFFICIALSENSURE. ARE THIIC GROUPS IN STIC STRUGGLES. PARTED BY THE

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PAGE OOGUG 89

VERSION. HOWEVER. DOES PROHIBIT PUBLIC CALLS FOR THE VIOLENT OVERTHROW OR CHANGE Of THE STATE ORPROHIBITION LIKE THOSE IN THE LAWS OF WESTERN NATIONS. THE SUPREME SOVIET ALSO DELETED FROMRA'T APRIL DECREE ADDITIONAL PENALTIES FOR USING COPYING MACHINES TC DISTRIBUTE LITERATURE AOVOCATlNC THE OVERTHROW OF THE STATE rmfmW

VICTORY FOR REFORMERS FOLLOW THE REPEAL IN JUNE IY THE CONGRESS OF PEOPLE'S OEPUTIESROVISION OF THE APRIL DECREE MAKING RIME TO INSULT STATE OFFICIALS ANO REVERSES ATTEMPTS TO DAMPEN PRESIDENT GORBACHEV'S LEGAL REFORM MOVEMENT BY HARDLINERS WHO SEEK STRONGER MEASURES TO COMBAT CJfiHf AND ETHNIC US'P.EST. UNCffn'AINTKS ABOUT THE HEWWJinMtotilHptVVr REHAIN: IT IS UNCLEAR. FOR EXAMPLE. WHETHER THE HEW DECREL^KTINTJES TO PUNISH ACTIONS ATTRIBUTED TO FOREIGNHMfe

7. IN BRIEF

EUROPE

MEETING YESTERDAY CALLED FOR COORDINATING ASSISTANCE TO POLAND, HUNGARY, USING PKDCEECS FROM SALE OF FOOD SHIPMENTS TO PROMOTE PRIVATE AGRICULTURE . . . NEXT MEETING TO REVJEJE.BILATERAL PROGRAMS. IDENTIFY GAPS. ELIMINATE DUPLICATION.

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NTERIM COVEBNMENT INFORMATION MINISTRY OBJECTED TC . . EJECTED

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SOUTH ASIA

OS-SOVIETEJECTED ROLE FOR NAJIGULLAH.UTSIDE" SETTLEMENT EFFORTS WITHOUT RESISTANCE PART

MINISTRY STATEMENT NOT APPROVED BY INTERIM GOVERNMENT.

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