NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR 29 JULY 1989

Created: 7/29/1989

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Lebanon-Syria: Raising the Stakes

Abduction of Hizballah Shaykh

Playing Hardball With thc Conttai

Preparing for Cambodian Conference

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Yaiov on INF Treaty

Increasingly Sophisticated Weapon* in Georgia USSR: Reformist Deputies Organizing

: Politburo Launcltts Anticorruption Campaign

Chile: Plebiscite on Constitutional Reform Sri Lanka-India: Compromise Solution Eases Tensions

JO 10

Urief

Moving Beyond OAS Mediation

USSR: An Embattled Military

14

ISRAEL-LEBANON: Abduction of Hlaballah Shaykh

Israeli kidnapping of Hizballah clerical-Karlm Vbayd might provoke threatsostages and increased attacks against Israel, ii'Xrt, la Ledar.o- and northern IsrscI JrHbV

ozen Israeli raiders landed from helicopters at lhc village ofm west or thc Israeli-controlled security strip in southern Lebanon, and seized Hie Hizballah cleric, hi* nephew,hird pcraon.r

Comment There is no confirmation thai Ubayd was involved in Hizballah kidnapping operations, bui he publicly supported thc Higgini operation. Ubayd is one of thc leading Hizballah clerics in southern Lebanon and has been involved in anil-Israeli military operations for most of this decade. The Israelis probably hope the abduction will increase iheir leverage in negotiating for the release of lhc three Israeli hostages in Lebanon, particularly navigator Ron Arad, who was laken prisoner by the Shia Amal militia in6 but apparently is now in Hizballah hands. Israel ma> also hope to team more about Hizballah actix ilies ir. the south IMfe

Hizballah, possibly with Iranian aid. almost certainly will iry to retaliate against Israeli forces for the abduction or thc cleric and may even attempt an operation inside Israel. Huballab-mav publicly threaten to harm US hostages.gyLv ^

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Preparing for Cambodian Conference

Moscow has hinted that littnam and Cambodia may be flexible at lhe International conference, which begin, tomorrow In Parts, and that Itlo wort, toward getting them tu accept Itnrdrrmeni,

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen stopped in Mono, lorsome onaris, and lhe Soviet and Chinese dcnsit;recently held Iheir hrsi discussions on <Sinu-Soviet summit_,

Soviets have

told HanoiUN involvement is important in an* comprehensive sciilcmcntand thai Hanoi i* now mo* in* lowurdN

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J: The Soviets will probably not puvn Vietnamar on internal aspectsettlement, primarily the compositionrovisional government, no* that thc> have normalized relations with Ouna and thc .Vietnamese withdrawal is almost complete. Thc instability inko.pxc*abl^Jja4^flycnecd Ihc Sovici position

nstead probably urge Hanoi to concede on external aspects, such asN role andeacekeeping force. Moscow shares Phnom Penh's and Hanoi's concerns that the resistance currently holds the Cambodian UN seat but mas calculateole for thc UN andeacekeeping force arc low-cost nsjojteep thc settlement process moving'

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Possible Soviet Positions

Moscow his shown no signs of breaking wiih iu Indochincsc allies on the key question of tlic compositionrovisional governmeni.

Moscow i, willing torominent role for Prince Sihanouk but not to dismantle thc existing Cambodian Government apparatus and wilt probably demand that Hun Senosition of power.

The Soviets probably wouldettlement between Sihanouk and Hun Sen's forces ifthe Khmer Rouge could be prevented from continuing toivil war.

Moscow accepts the need for some participation of the Khmernot of Pol Pot and his topavoid an immediate Khmer Rouge military resurgence but will push to have weapons stockpiles liquidated and Khmer Rouge military forces reduced.

On external issues Ihe Soviets haveBpfor months thai Ihey are not opposedole for the UN. .Although Moscow has noi been willing lo break wiih Vietnam publidy on this issue, the Soviets have recently sent mixed signals and mav be pressing Hanoi to concede.

The Soviets will probably pushrovision to end military aid to all Cambodian parties in any settlement.

Moscow probably will auppon Vietnam's demands thai thc UN scat for Cambodia be left vacant and that ihr annual resolution condemning Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia be dropped or that Vietnam be given recognition for ils pullout.

The Soviets will argue against the Chinese and Sihanouk's idea of reducing the troop strength of each faction0 troops. Moscow feels enforcement of amy reduction is not feasible and would put Hun Sen's regimerave disadvantage.

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USSR: Vuioion INF Treaty

Soviet Defense Minuter Ynzov. in an address yesterdayieof International Affairs ai thc conclusion of hituggested ihc USSR might refuse to abide by ihe INF Treatyproceeds with ihe Lance follow-on. Yazov said ihai. ifshort-range balliuic missile was eliminated and if the USbuild ihc Lance,ill be forced to again make this Oka"Thc INF Treat) requires allo be destroyedit bans further'

ress conference in Bonn two months ago.1 itt ci Shevardnadze thrcaicncd to halt destruction ofr toew missile if NATO proceeded with Lance modernization. After strong Western criticism. Shevardnadze publicly disavowed aa> intent to upset the INF Treaty. Although Yazov's iliter: mayimilar misstatement, il almost certainly reflects military concern about NATO plans for nuclear modernization!

USSR: Increasingly Sophisticated Weapons In Georgia

Four bombings, all in the past week, have been reported in ethnic clashes between Georgians and Abkhazians in lhe Soviet Georgian Republic. Thc attackseported grenade attack on nationalist leaders in Tbilisi and thc bombingrofessors home in Abkhazia. On Thursday, troopsniper who allegedly wasubmachinegun: ihis is the first reported resort to lethal force

i^cnc- in lhe Georgian-Abkhazian conflict are shifting from random brawls, less frequent recently.alculated attacks on prominent individuals and the use of high-poweredevolution that parallels tactics used in thc Armenian-Azen conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The attack on Georgian nationalist leaders suggests ihat groups of extremists with some sophistication in terrorist laetics and strong political motivations have coalesced. Both sides appear to have easy access to explosives, possibly through ihc regional mining industry. Thc extremists' willingness lo use these techniques to eliminate rivals and lo intimidate ihc citizenry will complicate efforts by MVP forces to staiiiJizetJte situation and lo obtain local coopera: i

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USSR; Reformist Deputies Orgranuing

members of ihe Congress of People'sparty maverick Boris Yel'isin. are to convenetrengthen contacts and prepare for the second session oflate this fall Thc groupb w)

numbers moreeputies, is lo discuss legislation on local elections, cooperatives, land ownership, consumer goods, prices, and corruption. They have already setoordinating council. The, reformist deputes also Intend toewspaper

MMkV Although the reformist deputies have been lobbxingincrease their numbers and resolve iheir differences, thev arelessoherent faction. During the first Congcomprised no moreifth ofeputies onSeveral independent Baltic deputies rceeniU claimed thatresolved some of their policy differences and thaileaders, such as Politburo member Ligachev, havehostilitv. Many Central Asian deputies and those fromhinterland remain suspicious Thisalksstimulate deputies of other political stnpc* to organize.figures like Yel'isin among ihem.dc(;oulcr.i l,

CHINA: Politburo Launches Ant (corruption Campaign

China's Communlit Party, at the end of its two-day Politburo meeting yesterday,ew program to attack official corruption. State-owned firms involved in foreign trade and domestic distribution will be audited, and two firms thought to beuestionable businesi practices will be closed, including one that has been closely associated with Deng Xiaoping'* ton. The panv plans to ban children of senior cadre from working for trading companieseptember, and senior officials who use their positions to obtain favors for their relatives will be subject to party and judicial discipline. Party officials also plan to cut leadership perquisites, including luxury foods and the use of official cars.

earh hopes to recapture popularhow of cleaning thc party of corruption, one of the major

Some pjn> elders arc certain tu ensure lhat their children retain lucrative posts. cspeciall> in arms export corporations, Thc leadership may also use lhc anticorruptron drive to discredit Zhao Ztyana and hjs/amiU ind funnel weaken pan}

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CHILE: Plebiscite on Comtltuilonal Keform

Chileans tomorrow will approxc the constitutional reforms agreed to by the government and major poliiical parties lasi month, but their real focus is on the presidential election in December.ew of thcroposed constitutional changes are significant: easing rules on amending ihe Constitution under the next government, shortening the term of Ihc next prcsideni from eight to four years, enlarging lhe directly elected membership of thc new Senate, and softening thc ban on Marxist parties. The Communists arc the only important party callingno" vote, and even they are not mounting all-out opposition. The government has tried unsuccessfully to portray the reforms as President Pinochet's and as reflecting his willingness "to perfect"io alter

If^jajtaga1'mochei and his dwindling hardline supportersbe the net losers in thc plebiscite. After insisting for monthssancmy of thc Constitution, they were forced bythc Military Junta, and senior Army officers to accedeby the opposition and rightists for basic changes. Thcil likely to be lower than in the presidential plebiscitebut polls show Chileans arc not disenchanted withprocess and arc intenselyhccongressional

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SKI lCompromise Solullon Ease Tensions

announcement yesterday ihat it will begin withdrawing thc0 troops it has in Sri Lanka will defuse much of_ the immediate tension bclween thc twossWHktt ihcrcifln Minister will visit New Delhi toda> lo discuss Colombo's request that India also hall offensive operations againsi Tamil miliums. Thc two sides also will discuss India's concernsithdrawal would open the door for Tamil militants to decimate thc Tamil groups in thc Northeast Province ihai supportedJhejndo-Sri Lankan Accord and bench led fromscncc.tgsssMP

to resolve the immediate

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impasse."President Prcmadasa apparently dropped his demand thai India recognize him as ihc commander of India's troops on the island, and New Delhi backed away from its refusal io resume iis troop drawdown. The negotiations will address several of thc key remaining problems that both sides played down after the withdrawal announcement, including the concerns about violence in thc northeast and whether India will callease-fire with thcd.an-tponiored sctilemeni In

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In Brief

USSR

KGB

USSR prosecutor rcccntlv repeated chargegllicinU guilty of covering uphave ax to grind

investigation for torturing defendants;

lire-

USSR to moveillages from Chernobyl" area three years after nuclearecision follows many reports of radiation contamination, mutations of humans andei growing pressure from public dissatisfied with cleanup

Thursdav raided homes oforganizers of recent petition and reform Communistolder dissident actions, meeting with Solidarity delegation from Poland probably triggeredegime may arrest activists soon./^

- Zimbabwe may soon open Cftbinct-lcvcl contacts with South Africaommercial tics well establishedresident Mugabe long

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Highlights of OAS Resolution on Puna, ma

Last week, the OASevolution on thc Panama crisis that:

Extended the life of the OAS mediation team tougust. when the hemisphere's foreign ministers will again meet in Washington to consider further action.

Called for negotiations bem-cen the opposition and the regime that would bringtransfer of power"eptember through democratic mechanisms and in accordance with current Panamanian procedures.

Calledew election as soon as possible.

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Beyond OAS Mediation

TA* Panamanian regime is hailing iht receni OAS decision to prolong Hi mediation effort and to call for ntw electionsefeat for Washington and lhe democratic opposition. The regime is spreading rumors lhal Dtftnst Chief Noriega is secretly negotiating with iht t'S and Is wilting lo step down if US pressure endi. Noriega may offer Ihe opposition minor concessions to avoid being blamtd in case talks break down before iht next OAS foreign ministers moating. He will probably intensify propaganda against US miliiary pressure in order lo deflect Stronger OAS action and to justifyratislonal Junta In Stpltmbtr.*

Opposition leaders have reacted to the OAS decision with anger.and press reports say they are considering not returning to the negotiating tabic. Theyontinue to insist thst theurn the government over

Negotiating Strategy

The Defense Chief probably views the prolonged mediation as forestalling harsher OAS measures and hurting opposition morale.

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Noriega is also trying to sow fear ihai the US is negotiating behind ihe opposition's

Noriega'a strategy, however, may make ihc opposition, already billcr at whai ii view* aa an OAS betrayal, walk out of ihc talks. To avoid blame forreakdown. Noriega is leaking word he would be willing to step down if the opposition would participateegime-dominated provisional government.

lc may also oiler minor conccsMuns as thc mediation deadline approaches and probably will try to spin the oi>positWn_b> cniicini second-echelon figuresoalition government*!

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Beyond Mediation

Noncga seems increasingly concerned aboul expanded US miliury exercises in Panama. The Defense Chief hasampaign lo convince Panamanians and Latin leaders that thc situation istruggle between Washington and Panama City, and the regime-controlled press has recently attacked the US exercises as precursors of an invasion. Noriega has sent civilian militias to protest at the gates of US bases, and the Defense Forces arc again US personnel.**

Thc press has also charged there are US-Backed guerrillas in neighboring CosiaRicapoised to overthrow the Panamanian Coscrnrrcru^pjplJipktWBa* gj

Noriega probably believes his two-pronged strategy of appearing conciliatory and portraying Panamaictim of US aggression will end the OAS mediation effort on favorable terms, freeing him tountaeptember. He probably expects thai thc talks will be stalemated and that the OAS mediators will call thc opposition intransigent. He may even try" to provoke an incident between US troops and Panamanian civilian militias in the hope that regional leaders will reject US efforts to impose harsher sanctions Latin country besieged by Washington, i

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Special Analysis

Embattled Miliury

The miliiary leadershiperies of budget cuts and arms redaction astreements as well as growing public distrust and vocal antlmllltaritm.

These developments seem to beivisive effect on ihe officer corps not unlike the effect PresidenLtrorbechevs reforms have had on

otherftm% J I

Since early ibis year ihc Defense Ministry has been undertoajor reform of Ihc conscriptionby creating an all-volunteer professional army or ethnic- militias. The miliiary(3!

apprehensive of plans to convert defense industrial capacLdudng_consumer

.ulic plan

Prime Minister Rv/hkov announced la reverse the current productpcrcent civilianpercent military- in the defense industrial sectort4kjHstsV

the armed

forces is not going smoothly. Severe"problems of family relocation and housing and inadequate job placement have made many officers fear they will be kept in iheforced fromtheir will. Despite promises from political and miliiary officials thai thc reduction will be madehoughtful manner, ihc high command has vet to get mailers in hand, even as criticism from miliury and civilian critics increases'

Indignities at thc Congress

The military came face to face in thc Congress of People's Deputies not only with oven public distrust and antimilitarism but also with thc creationicm of public oversight of defenseome delegates accused ihc miliury of firing on demonstrators in Tbilisi and. according lo Andres Sakharov. on iis own men in Afghanistan. The> excoriated lhe armed forces for wasteful defense expenditures,ew delegates even suggcsicd that the military wasoup. Several senior officers, including Marshal Akhromeyev. expressed anger, saying the criticism was irresponsible.

were especially hard on Yaiov. They blamed him for the hollow achievements of military perestrovka and pelted him wiih questions. He deflected them deten-uscly.

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