Created: 1/1/1990

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible


TAIjKING POINTS FOR THE DCI Current Soviet Troop Strength in Afghanistan

all Soviet troops have now been

withdrawn from western Afghanistan withmall number possibly remaining near the Soviet border.

Status of Regime and Insurgent Forceg

Regime Forces. Since the beginning of the Soviet withdrawal, regime forces have abandoned bordor areas and consolidated around major cities and along vital lines of communication such as the roads from Kabul north to the Soviet Union and east to Pakistan.

Insurgent Strength. Insurgent forces numberull- and part-time fighters throughout the country. Many of these forces currently are besieging the cities of Qandahar, Herat, Konduz, and Jalalabad and are attempting to

control access to Kabul.

rospects for Survival,

The Communist regime in Afghanistan is likely to pse politically within three to six months, although :arily the regime could hold on for upear.

insurgentseither hardliners will soonoup,reakdown of the party, or pro-resistance array officers will open the city to the insurgents.

Moscow almost certainly will continue to provide economic and military assistance in an effort to delay the fall of the regime and to minimize the appearance of having abandoned it. Tha scope of its commitment will, probably be limited by logistical problems, doubts about the regime's staying power, and concerns about the international and domestic reaction to any continued Soviet military involvement.

State of Intra-Resistance Politics

The resistance remains divided over plansew Afghan government. llura, or traditional legislative council, will probably meet today as scheduled, but is unlikely toiable government.

this week by pro-zahir Shah tribes and anti-Shia factions have strengthened the hand of delegates who want to ditch the alliance's prearranged appointments of Sibghatullah Mojadedi as transitional government president and fundamentalist Ahmad Shah as prime minister.

delegates appear likely toove to replace Ahmad Shah with Burhanuddin Rabbani, leader of theslami party. Traditionalists may move to bring former king zahir Shah into tha proceedings. Either move would probably prompt walkouts and might block any chance of consensusew government.

insurgent field commanders have denounced the shura plan,ew government should be created Inside Afghanistan, not in Rawalpindi whore Islamabad might manipulate results.

pro-resistance tribes demonstrated against an agreement that gives pro-Tehran Shia groups upf thehura seats. They fear the agreement will give Iran greater influence inside Afghanistan.

Original document.

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