LATIN AMERICA BRIEF OCPAS LAB 89-271 FOR 22 NOVEMBER 1989

Created: 11/22/1989

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

m. ii ^nvADoft'i iliu. rm Btjd's ueci^km fi iij.'i tu.

WHERE iHf SliPETARY GENERAL -AS KJYIHG. PROVED HI A

RELATIONS it NOERCjT -niH EFFORTS '0XIIRNATIONAL PRESSUREEASE-FIRE. IHE PRE -PHSIT ION IOl MUNITIONS NEAR THE KITH SUGGESTS THAI THE SHERATON WAS THE PRIMARY TARGET OFIGKtlNC. IHE ATTACK ALSO MAY HAVE BEEN THE RESULT Or ROGUE CUEaftillA ELEMENTS. AS FMLN COMMAND AND CONTROL CAPABILITIES IN THEBABLY HAVE BEEN OIHlNiSHEU DURING THIS WEEK'S OFFENSIVE. WITH THE FAILURE OF THE IRAR' O'FENSIVE. FILM LEADERS MAY INCREASINGLY TURN TO TERRORISM IN AN EFFORT TO EXTRACT CONCESSIONS FRO* THE GOVERNMENT.

ENTERE3 HQftAZAN (IEPART.ltHI ON SUNDAY. HEAftUHITIlE ARMY CONTINUES TON UN KNOW* NUMBER OF FORE IGnERS-IHCLUQIMC AT LEAST ONE Ul CARAGUAN-CHARCi HC THATAVE AIOED THE REBELS. |

COMMENTi ALTHOUGH MORAZAN IS IHt PRINCIPAL REBEL BASE AREA. INSUAGCNT CONTROL OVER THE REGIONOOED OVER THE PAST YEAR. ANO IT IS UNLIKELY THE FMLN CAN fit IZE CONTROL CF THE MILITARY HEADQUARTERS AT SAN FRANCISCO. REFUGEES HAVE UNILATERALLY REPATRIATED WITHOUT THE SUPPORT OF THE UN AUG ALMOST CIRTAINiY WILL HELP SUPPORT THE 1NSURGENT EFFORT IN MORAJAH. DESPITE THE CAPTURE Ol THE NICA3AGUAN CITIZEN. IHERE IS NO EVIOEHCE THAT MANAGUA IS DISPATCHINGN ISL SALVADOR.

Original document.

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