NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FOR WEDNESDAY, 13 DECEMBER 1989 -- EL SALVADOR: REB

Created: 12/13/1989

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

APPROVED FOR BELEASI

MERICA:

Keeps Peace Process Alive

actorthird thismany of Salvadoran President Cristiani's aims. Although the communique docs noi call speciricalU for Nicaragua to end its aid to the Sahadoran rebels, it supportsroposalease-Arcialogue, condemns the rebels' violence, and calls on then to demobilize. Honduran President Azcona briefly left the talks late Monday but returned when NKaraguan Prcsidcni Ortega agreed toilateral commission to find an extrajudicial solution to Managua's World Court case against Tegucigalpa byune. pjJJJJ

The other Presidents endorsed Ortega's demands that US humanitarian aid to the Contras be turned over immediately to the UN-OAS commission responsible for demobilizing them.ecember deadline for demobilisation set in the Tela accord was not extended. The five Presidents called on the Contras to stop all actions against the Nicarsguan election onebruary; Managua succeeded in deflecting criticism of its harassment of oppoinion candidates. It reiterated its offer to allow those Contras who return to Nicaraguaebruary to register to vote. The Contras. however, have reiterated their refusal to demobilize until Nicaragua lives up to earlier premises lootal amnesty for political prisoners and other guarantees. pjJJJJ

Comment; Although the peace process is alls* and the Presidents plan to meet again in Managua before the end of March, there was no progress on Contra demobilization and Nicarsguan aid to the FMLN. Ortega probably believes he gained as much as possible, in view of the preoccupation at the summii with Managua's role in the SsJvadoran conflict. Crisiiam probably believes regional backing for hit cease-fire proposals and condemniiions orthc FMLN will Dut pressure on the rebels toialogue.ccreded in postponing tne World Court cast for the rest of Ms tenure, but Nicaragua will pursue the litigation if not satisfied with progress or. demobilization after six months JJ

The Contras may agree to reconvene talks with the Sandinistas but will coniinuc io pvoid demobilising before the dcciion in Nicaragua. Corira fooi-drcgging and the likely reluctance of Ihe UN and OAS toirccl role in any involuntary demobilization will make slow

appflovidfor release

EL SALVADOR: Rebel* Planninguund uf Attacks

The FMLN. convinced ii has made al least pathological gains against the Ciistiani government, reportedly intendsake fun Iter attacks in San Salvador and elsewhere in the counlrv.

4QU-man counicrinvurgency battalions to its forces in San Salvador and is continuing offensive operations against insurgents northeast of the city and near San Salvador Volcano. I

large numbers of rebels still in ihe San Miguel area may oe planning another attack on ihal eily. pj

Comment: Despite its more aggressive coumerinsurge.icy actions near the capital, the Army cannot stop small rebel rainfilirations and probably will try to useforces to eliminate large concentrations of guerrillas on the periphery of San Salvador.

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