Created: 4/18/1990

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Special Analysis

Centrifugal Elections in Store

Strang win by the Demos opposition over the Communists in Slovenia's recent assembly election almost certainly will be repeated by nationalist parties in elections in Croatia that begin on Sunday. The establishment of anti-Belgrade governments in the two northernould further threatenunity and inert ate the possibility of military inti r. emtion W lj

Final election results in Slovenia will not be available until after the runoffs there on Sunday, but the Demos coalition hasajority in one chamber of the assembly and probably will dominate the other two. The Communist candidate for the Slovene presidency, the popular Milan Kucan.trong lead over Demos opponent Joze Pucnik in the primary, but the runoff is likely to be close. Pucnik almost certainly will pick up most of the votes that went initiallyn anti-Communist independent candidate; criticism-nf Pucnik by the Yugoslav military is likely to add to his support.|

In Croatia, it now seems the ultranationalist Croatianwillajority ofssembly seats in ballotingSunday and runsoll lastUI^odih^gntjf-rightead

may be evenCDU and ihe

Coalition want more independence for Croatia from the national federation.!-

National and Serbian leaders have beco cautious in reacting to the Slovene elections. Premier Markovic has praised their democraticaily newspaper controlled by Serbian strongman Milosevic has characterized the elections as democratic and free but did not comment on the outcome.

Federation Threatened

Chances arc growing that political and military leaders in Belgrade will be confrontedajor challenge to the political and







order. Croatia's movement down the path blared by the Slovenes would greatly raise the stakes for Belgrade. It could spark violence between the two largest ethnicandspill over into other regions, such as Bosnia, whichixed population of Muslims. Serbs, and Croats. An election victory would give Slovene and Croat oppositiontrong mandate to pushtatus tantamount to total independcnccfrcirnlklgriide. Failing approval, threats of secession are ptobahlcl I

Ethnic violenceDU victory to Croatia could giveeason to intervene militarily on the pretext of restoring order, although there is no sign thai federal leaders arc preparing for sue

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