Created: 3/27/1990

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USSR: Lithuanian Situation Report

Colombia: Candidate'slow to Ba


) b

Kawait-OPEC; Expanding Oil Refining, Marketing

Afghanistan: Drug War Lord9

USSR-Cuba: Linking Arms Aid to US-Cuban Relations

Guatemala: Army Cool on Talks With

1 1


USSR: Youthrowinguestioning Official Statistics


In Brief


After ihc Coup

Salvador: Outlook for Foreign Support to FMLN



Lithuanian Situation Report

Vilnius cany this moi who had fled the Red independent. In Kuan another hospital set U| Lithuanian official sai< Communist Pany bui; under theresident Landsbergis univers

oviet Government has stepped up its campaign of pressureby seizing soldier, who have left their units andpreparing to tighten access to the republic, andforces there to compel the Lithuanians toOn(3)

Viet parat

OOpers stormed hospitals in *ing and beating two dozen soldiers cr Lithuania declared itself


control of lien who had left theiraratroopers yesterday took over the he port of Klaipeda and placed itarty secretary, an ethnic Russian Ipvjet soldiers had surrounded the

President Landsbergis has suggested he may travel to Moscowwith President Gorbachev next week. Deputy Primemet with Soviet military officers to investigate complaintsof soldiers Yesterday evening Oiolas told thethat "thecrisis" had passed^ 3

irst vie

,Thc seizure of soldiers who have left their units isaction by Soviet forces in Lithuania. The news ofmay bring out angry Lithuanians and could increaseofa violent confrontation with pro-Sovietalmost certainly hopes lhat lhe staged rally today inthe parliament building will serve lo demonstrate its abilityevents inside


Former Lithuanian Resistance Fighters Emerge

As pan of Moscow's intimidation campaign againsi Lithuania. Soviet commentators have expressed outrage that participation in thc post-World War II anti-Moscow resistance movement was critical in the success of some Lithuanian independence movement leaders in recent republic elections. Recent press articles have highlighted crimes committed during the resistance struggle by several Lithuanian legislators.

Underground resistance and guerrilla warfare against lhe Soviet regime received widespread support in Ulhuania from the time the Nazis retreated4 until KGB troops, forced colleenvization, and massive deportations ended iloviet sources estimate0 on each side died in the fighting. Official Western assistance was limited during the armed resistance, bul American-born Lithuanians did reium to help.



Candidate'sio* to Bareo

murder Inst *efk uf leftist presidential candidatehat put the Bareo administration on the defensiveedibitiry of lhe3

Responding to charges byatrioticof government complicity in human rights violations against leftists, President Bareo on Sunday replaced Government Minister Carlos Lcmos with left-leaning Liberal Party Senator Horacio Scrpa. Bareo had earlier refused Lemos's offer lo resign and publicly expressed support for him. but Lemos's remarks on thc eve of Jaramillo* murder accusing tbc UP of links lo Marxist guerrillas prompted widespread calls for his ouster. The government has blamed drug trafficker Pablo Escobai foi murde sj^Lsfla* 3

Public outrage over the assassination has been vented in protest marches, labor strikes, and violent clashes between Jaramillo's

supporters and police. Security forces remain alert/or renewed disturbances, including possible guerrilla attacks in the countryside


groups rangtng from the UP to the center-right Social Conservative Party have suspended campaigning and have sought postponement of thc election for security reasons. The government has denied the request, and presidential fronirunner Cesarwho won official nomination at Sunday's Liberal Party convent, says the election schedule is obligatory under the Constitution]

UP may be reconsidering its decision to boycott the election but has no suitable replacement for Jaramillo. Rightwing violence against the UP and theoor showing in legislative and municipal elections this month have aggravated an internal struggle between his moderate faction and Communist

> I


ireo probably hopes removingstaunch supporter of his antinarcoticsquiet protests and opposition calls for postponing the election. The assassination will force the government quickly to improve security for the candidates. Even if the main opposilion Social Conservatives participate in the

bOYCOttby the left would tarnish its legitimacy fc> 5

KUWAlT-OPEC:il Refining. Marketing Abroad

Kuwait's recent purchase of Mobil Oil Italians is part of ils ownthat of several other OPECacquire

and five olher OPEC members are(3j

refining and marketing facilities in consuming countries, but their purchases willmall share of the petroleum industries in most Western countries. Such acquisitions, which are concentrated in the US and Western Europe, will have minimal impact on thc oil market and probably will improve energy security. The purchase of Mobil's Italian operations will enable Kuwait to market nearly two-thirds of total exports ai refined products or as crude to its own refineries. The overseas petroleum facilities also will let it take advantage of Ihe current surge in refining profitability and may give .1 the East European

AFGHANISTAN: Drug War lord Assassinated

Mullah Nasim Akhundzada. well-known drug lord and thcresistance commander in Helmand Province inwas killed Sunday by unknown assailants afterthe leader of hisslami party,near Peshawar, Pakistan. Nasimember ofcommission instrumental in establishing thegovernment lasl year but has been militarily inactiveregime forear. He banned poppy production inIsst fall in the expectation of US economic aid. sharply , poppy.J

rulhlessncn. lack of ideological and religious commitment, and unbridled desire for power made him many enemies among rival commanders, some of whom have also been involved in the narcotics iradc. Hisetback for US counlernarcotics efforti, is likely lo spur fighting among his rivals in Helmand and almost certainly will encourage farmers to resume poppy cultivationide scale* this falH


USSR-CUBA: Linking Arm* Aid lo US-Cuban Relations

Moscow's Ambassador to Havana said in an interview lastthe Western press that the Soviets and Cubans arereduction in Soviet military aid to Cuba but that such aon improved US-Cuban relations. He saidS invasion and stressed that. "The Cubansand >ou should help your friends

HBw,ln ,he defea: of the Sandinistas, the Sovietss tbe major remaining bone or contention with the US in Latin America, and they are likely to repeat their line that the level of Soviet military aid is linked to the stale of relations between Washington and Havana. Regardless of those relations, however. * thc Soviets almost certainly will provide less military aid to Cuba over the five-year plan that begins1 as they reduce their commitments to most Third World clients for domestic economic reasons. They will continue to push for improved US-Cuban relations, hoping to remove an irritant in US-Soviet ties, reduce economic pressures on Cuba, andidel Castro's concerns waning SovietJHaaM LailHgsHLaV

GUATEMALA: Army Cool on Talks With Guerrillas

President Cereio's approval of informal discussions in Norway this week between the government's national reconciliation commission and Guatcmala's.guc;riHas is likely to spur military opposition to his administration,


"he absence of an Bgcnda and deep-seated suspicionsprospects for progress. The guerrillas apparentlytalkseans to gain political legitimacy, pressis rapidlyprovoke the military tothe government. Previous talks with the rebels haveleast one coup attempt, and this round of talks probablycoup plotting by the military; it is already fuming overnomination this month of Alfonso Cabrera, whom'* involved in narcotics trafficking as thepresidential candidal


mBMimwmm Jf>?


USSR: Youthrowing Concern



law to full pay for a

Cost-culling reforms arc causing young workers, pnmanly thosencreasing difficulty in finding and holding jobs Enterprises that have- implemented self-financr '

first j

relucunt to hire such workers, who are eatitl shorter workweek. Young workers al

to be released to cut costs.MPaflhajt"ihc problem of employing young people has never been as acute as it is now

onstituteercent of tht required toertain nui government raised student stipe: people to full-time study.'Djespit jobs remains high. Unemployrnc dissatisfied with the progress of, increased social tension


>ung workers in the USSR cc. Enterprise managers are orkersnd thc rar to.attract more young oris, the number<sceking nake enough young6 add to the country's


USSR: Questioning Official Statistics

1member YuriyVSSR'* economic growih have been negative last year and probably will be this year. assessment contrasts with'the^Soviet statistical agencyVesti mate ercent growthnJ^ on Soviet data suggest'hat the economy grewsjjghtly last year butate much lower

year President Gorbachev ordered the State Planning blo produce.rridrc reliable measuresestimates were constructed, all showedbut'StibStahtially less than theuse

" iaM'estimatesnein rabpthsioClhis Year to argue


In Brief

added to USSR Presidential Council yesterday were on list TASS carried early Sunday but not on "corrected" list broadcast sameesignees may have been reluctant to accept , positions . both Gorbachev

Soviet Communist Party in Stavropol* abolished district party committees, as Gorbachev authorized thisther cities ertain toational leaders probably hope eliminatir-local bureaucracy will improve party's image, efficiency/^

Peru's dollar reserves nearly exhausted, down tomillion0 million lastay sellfurther curtail imports to increase cash reserves beforeApril >

first-round election results still incomplete.ercent of voteemocratic Forum holds edge over Free Democratseats likely to be decided this mallholders distant thudl

Prime Minister Mazowiccki's promise to help Sovietto Israel reflects personal desire to help and effortPolishrobably hoping limited roleArab economic, terrorist retaliation

said Thursday it will leave CEMA exchange rateollows recent suspension of trading in East German, Hungarianay refer oniy to noncommercial accord

to slop influx of "tourist shoppers.'y

German Christian Democrats, helped by allies'in East Germany, nearly outscored Social Democratselections in Schleswig-Holsteineeking edgeLower Saxony state election in Mayj







Libcrian dissidents escalated attacks in north last weekend, hit US rubberlantation suspended operations, US Ambassador urging US citizens to evacuateighting jeopardizes food relief efforts to have begun3

South African policcbtame ANC for bombing two government facilitiesavericks opposed to dialogue may beretoria playing down, apparently liravoid disrupting coming talks with ANC,

^delayed opening trade office in Tel

oscow claiming Israel currently lacks established

governmeni, probaMymjing to contain Arabs' anger over

banks' net foreign currency sales upercent this year9ttributed to political turmoil, deteriorating investmentikely to intensify calls for currency


Special Analysis


Although PrcsidentTVajrbullah survived the coup attempt this month,rema.n, divided and weakened militarily. The Infightingmorale,he guerrillas remain unprepared to

Najibullah has moved lo reduce tensions in the Communist partyproject strength, but the longstanding Khalq-Parchamintensified by fighting in which even Kabul hasdied. Painstaking attempts abroad to portray Najibullahstable forceeacemaker have also been undermined byattempt. His position remains dependent on the loyalty oftroops in Kabul m 3

The coup attempt may have reducedbility togarrisons away from the Kabul-USSR highway.defenses largely survived the attempt, as did its artillerybut the regime's military organization and the Air ForceJ

Losses of aircraft and pilots during thc rebellion will reduce tbe Air Force's operational capability, at least in the near term. Although the Soviets can replace the aircraft quickly, losses of pilots will tax the Air Forces ability to support outlying garrisons like Khowst. The Defense Ministry has restricted combat flights because of doubts aboul the loyalty of the remaining pilots, further degrading the Air


Morale among Army personnel remains fragile, and defections bi officers probably have reduced combat effectiveness'

Mixed Blessings for the Resistance

Insurgent morale and determination probably have been buoyedcoup attempt. Many insurgents ignored the ban by thegovernment on attacking Jalalabad,




la new assault is aboul to begininsurgent pressure on Khowsi,since thtcoup. Some commanders. however, haveconduct new operations, fearing that ihey would ultimatelyHizbi Islami leader Gulbuddin Hikmatyar

The coup attempt has widened the gaps between resistance leaders, further exposed the disorganization of thc insurgents* interim government, and may have killed hopes foruccessful national shura (council

The AIG also has lost all international credibility because it failed to exploit the coup. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will continue to push for Najibullah's removal but may look beyond the AIG inettlement "P


Neither the regime nor the resistance appears capable of decisive

action. Pany factionalism will sharply limit Najibullah's options- the

AIG may collapse under the burden of ils poor showing in the crisis

and its distrust of Pakistan. Islamabad will increasingly look to the

US and Saudi Arabia in its searchettlement, and insurgent

commanders will begin to develop their own polilical structures

Afghani i


Special Analysis

EL SALVADOR: Outlook lor Foreign Support to FMLN

absenceriendly regime in Managua will greatly impairinsurgents' resupply operations, but Cuba andin Nicaragua almost certainly wilt try to continue providingmunitions and other rapport



I) 13

Fidel Castro almost certainly will remain committed to supporting the Salvadoran rebels. Cuba may try using merchant ships or smaller boats lo ship supplies to Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico, or Belize, where cargo could be transported overland tb'EI Salvador. The FMLN, with Sandinista assistance, already smuggles supplies by land through Hondin-as: shipment of arms through Guatemala and Mexico has bccifl over the past several years. 1

shipments from Cuba are not likely lo make up thc shortfall in deliveries from Nicaragua afterpril. Using merchant ships would require secure port facilities, front companies, and the availability of ships noi suspected of being arms carriers. Maritime deliveries, moreover, may draw the attention of US anlinarcotics patrols'

The FMLN's decision8 lo refit many units with East Bloc weapons has made it even more dependent on external resupply. In thc short term, however, the rebels can sustain low-level fighting or evenarger scale campaign if they manage to stockpile enough munitions beforeprilj'


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