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Lithuanians Optimistic After Meeting;
: Azcfis Still Agitating on Iranian
East Germany: Opposiiion Assens
Panama: High Expectations for US Aid
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Syria: Eastern Europe Raising Concerns in Damascus China: Worker Unrest Growing
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Romania: Ban on Foreign Borrowing Lifted
China-Taiwan: Heightened Reunification Rhetoric
Brief
Lithuanians Optimistic After Meeting Gorbachev
General Secretary Gorbachevhat Indicated he will not ttand
in the way of Lithuanian Communist Party independence, even though i
there Is opposition to his views in iht CPSU Central
eek ago lold breakaway Lithuanian Communiit Pany leader Brazauskas that Lithuania could have an independent piny and full economic autonomy provided that the republic would refrain from^sccedmg^iniili^jrteMh^^
Leaders of the breakaway pany say their meeting with Gorbachev and other Politburo members in Moscow yesterday has left them convinced lhat Gorbachev will not stand in the way of Lithuanian party independence. The Lithuanians said, however, that some Central Committee members are advocating strong measures against separatist cITons!""
Gorbachev has deferred his trip to Lithuania until next Wednesday and postponed his meetings with foreign officials scheduled for this luse of domestic
General Secretary almost certainly realizes the -maverick Lithuanian party is not going to back down, even in thejace of political and economic sanctions. He is probably lookingys to buy time, such as moving up the party congress, to let immediate tensions cool. Soviet spokesmen have acknowledged support in the Central Committee for more forceful measures, bul Gorbachev is likely to gain agreementurther delay in any precipitous action. He may calculate thateferendum among Lithuanian party members on the decision to split with thea vote almost certainly would show overwhelming support for thegive him additional leverage lo usc,against hardline CPSU officials. Independence for the Lithuanian partyould encourage traditionalists In the leadership io pursue antiseccssion laws, but such proposals would almost certainly be deflated in lhe Soviet legislatureP*-"
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Azerls Still Agitating on Iranian Border
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Disturbance! continue throughout southern Azerbaijan andAutonomous Republic; Moscow is likely to give in toihr prottttrri' dtmandfore vpo* border
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the situation remains tense.
Moscowigh-level delegation, including panyjiirenko. to investigate the disturbances yeslerdayf^MMaVbImvo died down and thai
the prpteilCTS are returning home. JaaSapgaajij VMMMWaV*1
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he protests will continue until Sundayk 13
l] remove border restrictions such as fences
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watchtowers if Moscow does not; many of the protesters are calling or the right to_ reclaim farmland near thc border and to cross into Iran trecly.the families of border guar
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'he Aieri situation is far from calm and could worsen. In seeking to put the best face on events, the Soviets are no doubt trying to ease concern in Iran and other neighbors that Moscow cannot control its borders. The Soviets are also mindful ofthe potential for similar actions by olher ethnic groups located along sensitive borders.
Toarger border crisis and limit international embarrassment, Moscow probably will have to give in to Azeri demands and lift at least some ofthe border restrictions.!
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1 I'M ANY: Opposition Asserts Itself
East German opposition's new electoral coalition Improves its prospects in tht com ing election and may stiffen lis position with tht gorernmen r. ^ Jfj
Six opposition groups announced late Wednesday that they^Electoral" which will sponsor candidateselectionay. Thr.evelop abut the constituent parties and groups will retainIt includes the three largestnd the East GermanD
Dc
Oppontion groups have recently been in conflict with Premier Mod row's interim government over the future of the intelligence and security semces. They have called on the government to postpone lorming any new security organization until after the election and have threatened to boycott thc roundtable talks unless the government proves all security forces have been disarmed!
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thc opposition coalttion's membership is centrist and icli leaning, none of its members alone could command more than.moderate public support. Moreover, by pooling efforts and accepting aid from West German parties, the coalition may be able toack of financial and technical resources. Its cohesion is likely to frayictory, however, under pressure from poli. differences and continued agitation for German reunifies! ionT-
The electoral alliance will strengthen the opposition in the roundtable taut, which probably means increased conflict with the government in coming weeks as Mod row submits reform
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High Expedition* for US Aid
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1-anamania* officials hare outlined tentative economic plans to US officials this week and hare described their initial requirements lor financial assistance from
A solution to the housing needs ofesidents displaced is thc government's top pnomyHH SjajtajM
anjrnanian officials have proposcdthaTii
mt apartment complex be built in Ihe lower-class Chorrillo neighborhood surrounding thc former Defense Forces headquarters financed by atillion in US assistance. The Housing Ministry may also consider an alternativebe financed by thewhich displaced residents wouldombination of loans and grams lo purchase housing elsewhere in Panama. Efforts to clear rubble in the damaged neighborhood began this week!-
Chamber of Commerce officials say1 billion request Tor indemnification byVice President Ford has acknowledged ihatmillion arrearage to thc IMF needs to be cleared, but thehas notlan to deal with the debtin the electrical institute point lo shortages of sparelosses due to illegal connections and poor billing in thethe Agriculture Minister has requestedillion tomills back in operation for this month's harvest, askingrestore Panama's sugar quola at more than double
new government, which almost certainly believes the
U5 has an obligation to get the economy back on its feet,financial resources from Washington. Some citizensto become disillusioned with the Endara government
solutions to housing losses and other highly visible economic problems are noi found
released from escrow accounts under the US sanctions and US emergency aid have allowed the government lo meet its most pressing economicthe civil service on lime. Nevertheless. Panama City has not announced any noteworthy reconstruction initiative, and short-term economic planning seems dependent on ihc amount of US financial assistance made available. Panama probably will avoid negotiations with international creditors until Washington's aid intentions become clearer!"
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Eaalern Europe Halting Concents In Damascus
leaden are worried lhat dtrrlcpments in Eastern Europe, particularly the faJlofRomanian President Ceameseu, are encouraging dissent in
Mr
is no sign of an impending popular uprising against retains the overall loyalty of the ruling party and key miliury and security units. Assad, like many Arab leaders, had close relations with Ccausescu. however, and almost certainly is worried that events in Romania might inspire popular calls for change in Syria. The repressive nature of the Syrian regime, the dominance of the Ba'th party and of Assad's minority Alawi community, widespread government corruption,ariety of economic and social woes have engendered dissident activity in Syria during lbs past decadeT
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Worker Unrest Crowing
China'* austerity program is causing unemployment to soar and urban In ins ttandcJt to fall,g worker discontent.
Hong Kong press reports says unemployment is rising because tbe lusieriiy measures have caused industrial production to grow at lessercent annual rate sincecompared with almostercentercent of China's factories have slopped production. Beijing last week acknowledged the slump may push urban unemployment this yearycar high of moreillion pcopic
factories have
slashed yearend bonuses and limited millions of workers to part-time employment. Meanwhile, authorities have forced workers for the past few months to spend as much as half their salaries to buy government bonds, jajajjjaijr yjh
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disputes could escalateonfrontations with authorities
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ROMANIA: Ban on Foreign Borrowing Mlicd
ruling National Salvation Front on Wednesday formally lifted Nioolae Ceauscscu's ban on foreign borrowing. Hii obsessive effort to repay Romania's foreign debl even at ihe expense of driving down living standard! to poverty levels has left thc country virtually debl free
(Foreign borrowing nonetheless probably will playinor role in reviving the economy before the election scheduled for April. Western bankers are likely to want to wait until the political situation stabilizes and the new government decides its economic policy. Bucharest has noi indicated whether it will request funds from multinational institutions such as the IMF and Worldbelongs to both organizations. Neither though is likely to begin lending unlit the new government demonstrates it's commitment to decentralize the economy, introduce market prices more widely, and increase lhe role ofthe private sector. Official Western lending probably will increase as long at poliiical and economic reforms continue, but Bucharest will find itself in'stiff competition with other East European countries for limited
Heightened Reunification Rhetoric
The Chinese leadership is concerned aboul what it regardsround swell of support on Taiwan for independence; ii continues to accuse Taipei of irying to "spliteijing's New Year's greeting to Taiwan's ruling party was especially harsh, denouncing us "regressing" on the reunification issue. Chinese media allege proindependence groups ateyear timetable i0 win Taiwan's independence.i
,Thc barrage of harsh rhetoric from Chinese leaders clearly s intended to bully Taipei inlo stilling calls for independence, the focus of oubUc debate on thx.ulajid^ince the election last month.
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and other Chinese leaders may also be trying in piomote unity within their ownby increased social tensions al'jydivcitiiig attentionnother issue, Chinese sovereignly.
In Brief
Haq. Afghan interim government's internal security chief, will visit Washington nextaces formidable obstacles to his ambitious security, counter narcoticsdentifies closely with West, eager foi US help, funds taaJpBaV
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Czechoslovakia proposing thorough overhaul ofill join other reformers at CEMA session next Tuesday in urging switch to hard currency, world prices in intra-CEMAhreatening to withdraw il changes not made aVMpF ;
Haitian President AvriLaAMMHagMT to Taiwan this weekendeeklTcrs-.chance for disgruntled military, rightist plotters'family, de facto vice president accompanying, raising
possibility Avril may not
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Deputy Foreign Minister Rogachcvisit China beginning Monday to discussisited Indochina last monthseeking flexibility in Beijing's position, ft areas of
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Taiwan Economics Ministry Wednesday proposed lifting ban on direct trade wiihopes to increase access to Soviet raw materials, boost exports of clothine^lectronics products, plastics, enhance international position. SJsaaaaaar I
Mas^B"
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Papua New Guinea bracing for possible rioting following death of Governor General fromniteovemmcnt elements
Original document.
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