EUROPEAN BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 2 FEBRUARY 1990

Created: 2/2/1990

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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SUBJECT: EUROPEAN BRIEF FROA:PAS. - CONTENTS

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_! Ei^inj SYRIA-IRANI ALLIANCE Of COHVENIENCfKfl f"t

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SJiJTES: CONSIDERING n LEBANON tl USSR: CONSUMER COODS PROGRAM IN TROUBLE

INSUPP0RTINC CENTRAL AS.MWSLUB

I. GERMANYS: MOOROW-FLOATS UNIFICATION PROPOSALfJtMH

EAST GERMAN PREMlEP fiODROW'S UNIFICATION PLAN UILl ONLY MARGINALLY IMPROVE THE COMMUNISTS' PROSPECTS IN'nEKT MONTH'SLECTIONS BUT COULO SHARPEN WEST GERMAN PUBUCDEBATE OVER WHETHER Nl UTRALI TY SHOULD BE THE PHICE ICR UNITY. t> >

MOCRCV YESTERDAYOUR-STEP PLAN fOflME EMPHASIZED THAT FOUR POWER COOPERATION ANDTHROUGH CSCE WOULD BE PREREQUISITES. HE ALSO SAIDCERMANYS SHOUlO HONOR THEIR ALLIANCE COMMITMENTS BUTWOULD INVOLVE SOME TYPE QF MILITARY NEUTRALITY, BEFORF *

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PROPOSAL IN THE CONTEXT OF FOUR POWER

1 Arffiil ANO THE CSCE PROCESS, MCOROW TOO" PAINS TO ENSURE HIS PROPOSALS AGREE WITH CURRENT SOVIET THINKING. HE PROBABLY HOPES TO EASE PUBLIC PRESSURE OR RAPIO UNIFICATION BY IDENTIFYING HIS BELEAGUERED GOVERNMENI WITH THE INCREASINGLY POPULAR COAL OFNITIES GERMANY. HE ALMOST CERTAINLY WANTS TO BOOST THE COMMUNISTS POOR ELECTORAL PROSPECTS BY BEING THE FIRST EAST GERMAN POLITICIANEFINITE UNIFICATION PLAN( HIS EFFORTS, HOWEVER. ARE NOT LIKELY TO SUCCEED. 4kM*t '

MDI GliCUS REMARKS

AT MANY ,

JISCUSSEO HIS PROPOSAL WITHOURING HIS VISIT THIS WEEK. AND MOSCOW PROBABLY HADOVER THE TERMS OF THE PLAN. THE ROLE OF THE FOURTHE ALLIANCES. THE IMPLICATION THAT UNIFICATION WOULD AHD THE CONTINUED OBSERVANCE QF LEGAL OBLIGATIONS PROCESS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUSLY STATED SOVIET VIEWSUNIFICATION SHOULO EVOLVE. MOSCOW PROBABLY WILL WELCOME OF POSTPONING PEACE TREATY TALKS UNTIL AFTER UNIFICATIONVIEWING IT AS LEGITIMIZING THE PRESENCE OF US ANOIN GERMANY OURING THE UNIFICATION PROCESS. WHICH MOSCOW IS CESIRAOIE FOH TRT STABILITY Ot (AST>

THE SOVIETS UNDOUBTEDLY WILL LARGELY SUPPORT THC PROPOSAL. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE SOMEWHAT UNEASY ABOUT MODROW'S COMMENTS ON GERMAN NEUTRALITY. THEIR PUBLIC RESERVATIONS ABOUT UNIFICATION, HOWEVER, HAVE LOST FORCE SINCE PRESIDENT GORBACHEV HAS ACKNOWLEDGED ITS INEVITABILITY ANO SINCE EAST BERLIN HAS TABLED AN OUTLINE FOR THE PROCESS. MOSCOW PROBABLY BELIEVES THAT MOOROW'S SPEECH WILL HELP MAINTAIN SHORT-TERM STABILITY IN EAST GERMANY ANO THAT IT PUTS BOhN ON NOTICE Of THE NECESSITY FOR AN ORDERED PROCEDURE TO TAKE FOUR POWER RIGHTS INTO ACCOUNT. MOSCOW MAY ALSO VIEW THE PRECONDITIONS LAlO OUT BY MODROW AS USEFUL FOR SLOWING UNIFICATION. BUT THE SOVIETS UNDOUBTEDLY REALIZE THEY HAVE FEW CAROS TO PLAY AND RiOBABlY WILL FOCUS ON SAFEGUARDING THEIR OWN INTERESTS AS THE PROCESS UNfOLDS, <MLf

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BULGARIA: PRIME MINISTER, CABINET RESIGN& >

THE RESIGNATION Of BULGARIA'S PRIME MINISTER AND COUNCIL Of MINISTERS YESTERDAY AND THE FAILURE OF THE PARTY CONGRESS TO HAKE SUBSTANTIAL REFORMSOLITICAL CRISIS THAT MAY LEADOALITION GOVERNMENT AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEK. V?

PRIME MINISTER GEORGI ATANASOV AND HIS CABINET RESIGNED YESTERDAY UjjfJJB INTENSE-CRITICISM AT THE PARTY CONGRES1 RE ASS IGNMEHTS AND PURGES WILL SE ANNOUNCED

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THE CONGRESS PASSED NEW-PARTY STATUTES YESTERDAY TO REPLACE THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE AND POLITBURO, SEPARATE PARTY AND GOVERNMENT POSITIONS, ELIMINATE THE CONCEPT OF DEMOCRATIC-CENTRALISM. AND LIMIT THE NUMBER OF TERMS PARTY LEAOERS MAY SERVE. MORE RADICAL REFORMS, SUCH AS CHANGING THE PARTY'S NAME AND ELIMINATING PARTY ORGANIZATIONS IN WORKPLACES. HOWEVER. WERE NOT APPROVED,EFORMIST FACTION TO ANNOUNCE Jj WILLEPARATE BULGARIANAftTY NEXT WEEK. flttMt

THE DISSOLUTION Of*THE CABINET AND FAILURE Of THE PARTY CONGRESS TO AOOPT SIGNIFICANT REFORMS SHOW THE INABILITY OF THE COMMUNIST LEADERSHIP TO RESPOND TO PARTY AHO PUBLIC DISCONTENT, PARTICULARLY OVER ECONOMIC WOES. ATANASOV'S GROWING UNPOPULAR ITY AND ASSOCIATION WITH THE ZHIVKOV REGIME MADE HIS RESIGNATION UNAVOIDABLE. THE RESIGNATION OF THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS, HOWEVER, STEMMED FROM ITSURE TO ADDRESS BULGARIA'S GROWING ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES. mWmW

PETAR MLADENOV PROBABLY WILL RESIGN AS PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY BUT REMAIN HEAD OF STATE.'SOME KEY HARDLINE PARTY LEADERS ARE LIKELY TO FALL AS THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE IS REPLACEDMALLER SUPREME-COUNCIL. REFORMIST POLITBURO MEMBERS ALEKSANDER LILOV ANO ANDREY LUKANOV Will PROBABLY BECOME PARTY LEADER ANO PRIME MINISTER. RESPECTIVELY. WmmW 3

STRAINING. BUT

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THE REGIME HOPES THE CHANGES WILL HELP IT REGAINIT PROBABLY WILL SEEK TO ENTICE THE OPPOSITION UNIONFORCESOALITION GOVERNMENTEWTHE UOF IN THE ECONOMIC CRISIS AND UNDERCUTTING BEFORE ELECTIONS SET FOR HAY. THE UDF REJECTED SUCHTHIS WEEK AND PROBABLY WILL PRESSARETAKERCIVIL SERVANTS. BUT THE PUBLIC SENSEEEPENING CRISISIT TOOALITION AS EARLY AS HEX! WEEK. SYRIA IRAN: ALLIANCE Ol CONVENIENCE LIKELY TO

DIFFERENCES OVER LEBANON ARE STRAINING. BUT WILL NOT BREAK. TIES BETWEEN DAMASCUS AND TEHRAN.

5. ARAB STATES; CONSIDERING

THE ARAB .LEAGUE'S TRIPARTITE ARABIA, MOROCCO. AHO ALCERIA--HAS CALLEO ICO CONSULTATIONS OH CONVENING AM EXTRAORDINARY SUMMIT TO CpNSJDER.fOLITlCM, AND MIL! STALEMATE

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CONSUMER INOUSTR SHORTAGES OF RAW DISRUPTINGEFUSING TO HONO "ETHNIC GROUNDS

That aTumhiT will be organizedtm^ short nqTTce. particularly since arab liaoers wili almost certainly prefer to leave the lebanon issue to the tripartite committee,attitude may be oeci sive--will be loath to jeopardize its newly restoreo ties to syria. ano few arabsense of-urgency over the latest christian clashes.eague summit is held. it probably will be after the regular league foreign ministers meeting next month ano couloariety of topics. including jewish immigration to israel and thessr! consumer goods program

ARE REPORTING SEVERE RG LOCAL PROTECTIONISM FOR HODUCERS REPORTEOLY ARE inSES EPUBLICS ON

THAT IT CAN PROOUCC MORE NT AHO BUY SUPPORT FOR ED TO REASSERT CENTRAL

THNIC CONFLICTS. BOTTLENECKS ARE

CONSUMER PERESTROYKA.ONTROL OVER PROD DECLINING LABOR 0

moscow's urgent program to increase isomer goods this year is headed for trouble, es across tne country materials. often blan

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HAMPERING THE EFIORI. MOREOVER, ENTERPRISE UNRESPONSIVENESS IS WEAKENING TRADITIONAL LEVERS OE CONTROL, SUCH AS PROOUCTION PLANS AND STATE ORDERS. ESULT. ONSUMER PROGRAM IS tlKELY 10 FALL WELL SHOOT OF ITS GOALS. MST

7. USSR; WARY AFGHANS SUPPORTING CENTRAL ASIANft 9

ION THAT Ht HOPE D

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THE SOVIETS ARE CONCERNED THAT RECENT EIPRESSIONS OF SUPPORT BY AFGHAN RESISTANCE LEADERS FOR THEIR MUSLIM 1'BROTHERS" IN THE USSR COULO FUEL DISCONTENT IN SOVIET CENTRAL ASIA. ACCORDING TO AN NCONFIRMED PRESS REPORT. COMMANDER AHMAD SHAH MASOOD -AN ETHNIC TAJIK--ANNOUNCED PLANS SUNDAYADIOOULD REACH SOVIET TAJIK LISTENERS AND INST SOVIET RULE.

SPILLOVER OF ISLAMIC NAT! MASOOD ANO OTHER RESISTAN TO INOUCE MOSCOW TO LIMIT RELIGIOUS FERMENT IS NOT CENTRAL ASIA. BUT ISLAMIC

FORSOVIET MUSLIMS. REPUBLICS. YfpBB3N BRIEF

iAFGHAN OPPOSITION FORCESWfTENT WEAPONS. ACROSS THE BORDER TO SUBVERT TAJIKISTAN'S GOVERN-INT AND TC ESTABLISH AN ISLAMIC STATE. AJIK CITIZEN TRAINED IN SUBVERSION BY THE MUJANEDIN HAS. RECEIVED AN EIGHT-YEAR SENTENCE FOR ANTI-SOVIET ACTIVITIES. tVBBftJ

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LONG BEEN APPREHENSIVE ABOUT AINTO SOVIET CENTRAL EADERS MAY HOPE TO FOMENT UNREST THERE ITS SUPPORT FOR TNE KABUL REGIME.AJOR CAUSE Of UNREST IN SOVIET SOLIDARITY MIGHTALLYING POINT ESPECIALLY IN BORDER

NATIONAL SALVATION FRONT. OPPOSITION PARTIES YESTEROAY AGREED TO FORM COALITION GOVERNMENT . . . FRONT APPARENTLY RETAINS KEY POSTS . .. OPPOSITION LIKELY TO CONTINUE CHALLENGING OOflINANCE.

Original document.

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