DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE0 North inc South Taatfll In Search of Unity jS^i
north and south remen appear increasing]yserious in their pursuit of unity and ire likely over the next few' months to enter into jcmj rf yUliudeaoatticTrtey probably will follow up on their recently announced federation byoint unit* qmstittjtlon driftedut never implemented. mutually severe economic hardships appear to be driving the renewed unity process and are likely to lead toi} production and other joint economic ventures during theoutspoken endorsement of the principle of unity by aden and sanaa probably is meant to facilitate joint economic ventures and encourage arab and western states to invest in the two states. js-JffT
unity in both countries',]
ft^tXijf however, tre likety tcinn inc Acen rromomplete political, economic, and military merger in the near-term. south yemeni leaders in particuler are acutely aware that the more heavily populated north would dominate any truly unified yemen. they accordingly are likely to reject merging the two militaries and key ministries and any agreements in the near term art likely to be limited to intermediate economic, political and military agreements.
Unity: Hytft vs Reality
.i* ofidentity, Yemenis havebeer, fragmented alongribal, and class lines Successive regimes in North Yemen (Yemen Arab Republic} have coopted the support of the country'sIslamic figures to buttress regime egitimacy. while South Yemen (People's Democratic Republic of Yemen) long nas been among he most secular and radical states in the Arab world Thefrom the government
th Uatn hav*unityeries of agreements sinceeeut actual implementation haselusive. Sum*it meetings typically occurredorder clasheterioration in bilateral relations, but these talks for the most part have focused on resolving Immediate issuesispute. Jf-IFj-
Recent Progress Toward Unity
h-IIJr* poriuln9 the Issue more seriously this time to faclitate joint development projects and to strengthen the Yemeni-appeal to potential Arab and Western Investors. The recently concluded
orth Yemeni President Salih and Southt4ry
agreed to during President Sallh'sovember visit to Aden did not exceed previous joint agreements in substance, but may pa" the way for estab ishmentommon infrastructure to complement the existing '
1he dr,ft Un1t* Constitution of
Salih and Bid promised to pursue ratification within six months
Salih and Bid alsoTgTeed to joint Yemen;of Aden's oetro Ju- roads Unking Sanaa and Aden.l
dfnannounced plans to unify theirof this year, but mutual distrustVemalns high andis unlikely that soon. Both defense ministries hivewithdraw forces from their ill-defined bordei
reaffirmed their November promises.
Mutual Needs Drive Unity
been fueled by severeIn bothrowing debt service border; in hnthtrimmed foreign exchange reserves
[during the past two
Both governments probably hope that the unity process will facilitate lucrative joint development projects that will generJubadly oeedS revenues Their most notable cooperative venture over the past two years has been he oil arena. Jnjgea, Sar^a. an.tLAJen establ^hpe?qq
?aribSouth Yemen's Shabwah field, contains significant petroleum resources. Ji-frPT""
S*nVW*n Yemen Company for Investment In Oil
If ZZll rrre,lhet of the area The YC10MR has awarded the JIA consortiumive-party
Frinet's Total, andfrom
oviet Union; Jfter tw) rounds of talks. tbi^nMJoaad YCJOHgilontd an agreement In December, that resolved dlfferTr^eTWthe
package.garrangement. and exploration period
tUmfreSSOration *ork is scheduled to
artly hope that such jointecono.nir pursuitsmore Arab and Western
t^ustry and French and Canadian petro.
Opposition. Salih and Bid face continued domestic opposition to moreelatively cosmetic mercer, but probably believe they can gain formaJfijutorsement from their national asseoblles for the unity constitution. -Biri^nd hi< southerntre undoubtedly aware that the more heavily populated North would dominate any truly unified
Complete unification. In ouremains doubtful In th* nearthe renewed unity discussions have generated i
UiflrCltf to ^ttgedUte .coroelc, acreeme-.fH*-Oesperate economici continue to drive the unUy^S* and economic HberalUatlonens and Joint financial ventures ire likely near-term results of the unity process. he unlw process may serveseful guise for Salih and Bid to combine complementary national resources such as North Yemen's manufacturing and petroleum industries and South Yemen's port facilities and reflneriL V
APPENDIX Unity Agreements
North and South Yemen have pursued unity2eries nf meetings. Their efforts have ledumber of stillborn agreements, listed below, that redundantly spell out conditionsoint state.
Cairo Agreement. North and South Yemeni Prime Ministers met in Cairo and agreed on unity under the auspices of the Arab League. They agreednified Yemen with one flag, capital, leadership, executive, and legislature as well as Arab League supervision of the popular referendum to be held to approve the constitution. The sinister* also agreed on an Arab, Islamic governmentemocratic, national, republican form with free elections and broad Individual political rights-Eight Joint committees were formed to deal with constitutional affairs, economic and financial matters, legislative and Judicial, educational, cultural and Information, military, health, and administrative and public service problems.
The Tripoli Accord. North Yemeni President 'Abd al-Rahman al-Iryanl and South Yemeni President Salia Rubayya 'AH met fn Tripoli, Libya and confirmed the Cairo Agreement on* month after it was drafted. Iryanl conceded that the new state would be 'socialist" with ore unified political legislation. Rubayya 'All agreed that Islam would be the religion of the united Yemeni state. The North Yemeni Consultative Assembly later refused to ratify the Cairo Agreement.
Kuwaiti Agreement, Arranged by an Arab League mediation team, this summit was attended by North Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Salih and South Yemeni President 'Abd al-Fattah Ismail. They agreed to implement2 unity agreements and drawonstitutionew state. This constitution was drawn up In The leaders agreed that the two Yeoens would uniteederation, although both countries would retain their individual governments and Ideologies. They would merge their efforts In such fields of mutual interest such as health, education, and economics. The federation of the two Yemens would be known as the Popular Islamic Republic of Yemen,
Draft Constitutionnited The draft agreedarliamentary democracy with legislative power held by an elected parliament and executive power restingouncil of ministers. The unified state wouldixed economy and Sanaa would be the capital. The state would be Islamic and follow Sharla lawudicial system headed by an elected attorney general. The constitution was to be submitted to legislative and executive bodiesoth states before being submitted to the people of both stateseferendum. fCT"
Open Border Agreement May President Salih and Secretary General Bidoint exploration agreementeutral zone in their disputed border region. Under the terms of this agreement military forces were withdrawn to predetermined positions on each side defusituation that had the potential to escalate into open warfare
The oil ministers of each "