IMPLICATIONS OF THE SOVIET TRANSFER OF MILITARY EQUIPMENT FROM THE ATTU ZONE TO

Created: 7/17/1990

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

The Director of Central Intelligence6

0

National IntelligenceJuly

EXECUTIVE BRIEF

Implications of the Soviet Transfer of Military Equipment From the ATTU Zone to East of the Urals

Since beginning their unilateral reductions inhe Soviets havearge amount of CFE-accountablc equipment from the Atlantic to the Urals (ATTU) zone to sites east of the Urals. Included have been thousands of tanks and artillery pieces and hundreds of armored combat vehicles and aircraft.

The transfers enable the Soviet Union to avoid destroying billions of dollars' worth of equipment in excess of proposed CFE Treaty limits while preserving substantial force generation potential.

Some of this materiel has been used to upgrade units cast of the Urals. The rest is currently in storage, where itubstantial reserve of equipment that could be used to replace combat losses, flesh out skeleton units, or help equip new units.

As currently configured, the reserve stocks could not be mobilized rapidly to support theater operations against NATO. But they could significantlyorce generation process that otherwise would require years of industrial surge.

This Executive Brief was produced by lhe National Intelligence Officer far General Purpose Forces at Ihe request of the Director. Arms Control Intelligence Staff. It was coordinated with representatives of CIA. DIA.R. and NPIC

All pofttoos

Equipmenl Moving Eastward

the beguimnghousands of tanks and artillery pieces and hundreds of armored combat vehicles (ACVs) and aircraft have been transferred from the ATTU zone to Soviet reserve depots east of the Urals, outside the region of applicationreaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europentanks, artillery, and ACVs from the ATTU zone are being used to upgrade equipment in units in the Turkestan, Siberian, and Volga/Ural Military Districts, all east of the Urals.

Not all of the equipment being shipped eastward would be accountable under CFE, But upieces, and several hundred armored combat vehicles and aircraft that would be subject to destruction under CFE had they remained in the ATTU zone have been added to depots and units east of the Urals. The tanks are relatively42 models, but most of the other equipment is of older vintage.

Thousands of additional pieces of equipment accountable under CFE are "missing" from the ATTU zone and probably also have been transferred east of the Urals. Much of this equipment may be in covered storage.

Treaty-Limited Equipment

That Has Appeared tart of the Urals

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Possible Soviet Motives

The equipment being transferred east of the Urals is worth billions of dollars. Avoiding needless destruction of that much equipment is probably important to the Soviet military and, therefore, to Gorbachev during this tricky period in his relations with the high command.

The Soviets save considerable effort and money in the shortisposing of that much military equipment would be neither easy nor cheap. More important, they save the cost and time of producing replacements if they should need such equipment in the future.

Meanwhile, some of the equipment newly arrived from the ATTU zone is being used to upgrade existing but poorly equipped Soviet units east of the Urals. The restubstantial reserve that could serveource of materiel to replenish combat losses, to equip units in the ATTU zone that do notull complement of treaty-limited equipmenl, or to help equip new units formed east of tbe Urals.

The Soviets have not indicated and we do not know what they intend to do with the equipment being shipped eastward. Moving it out of the ATTU zone now lets them defer their decision untilFE treaty, has been signed and forceoth inside and outside the ATTUave been determined.

Military Significance

We Prove It?

military significance of these transfers will depend on the eventual disposition and intended utilization of the equipment It should be noted, though, that the equipment will gradually becomeence less threateningunless it is modernized. We judge that unlikely in light of Soviet economic trends.

While most of the equipment remains in storage east of the Urals, it could not be rapidly mobilized for use in theater operations against NATOost-CFE environment

Nevertheless, preserving this equipment helps tbe Sovietsubstantial force generation potential. Having these reserve stocks available could significantlyorce generation process that would otherwise require years of industrial surge.

The combined effects of withdrawal, reorganization, rest ructu ring,disbandmem, and destruction and transfers of equipment have led to turmoil in the Soviet theater force Consequently, we canpecific transfers of equipn

east of the Urals must have come there. m

In some cases we can demons' equipment showing up east Urals has beenTTU zone. Before the buil example, there' were4 tanks outside the ATTU zone, so'"

It is harder to show that all equipment came from the ATTU zone. Nevertheless, the overall trend isany thousands of tanks, artillery pieces, and ACVs have beenfrom the ATTU zone, while roughly equivalent quantities of similar equipment have been showing up cast ot the

Original document.

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