SOURCE:
IA
TEXT
SUBJECT: SCIENCE AND WEAPONS REVIEW CABLE, SW, 0
HAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ADVANCEDPROGRAM IK THE ARAB WORLD. TS SOVIET-SUPPLIEDISSILESATM--TWICE THE NORMALCURRENTLY IS PUSHING FOR INDIGENOUSSEVERAL OTHER MISSILES, INCLUDING- CONDOR II AND ANOP THE SCUD B.
APPROVED FOR RELEASE DATE; JUH Uuub
ND WHICH INCLUDE FACILITIES POR SOLID-PBOPELLANT PRODUCTION, FOR ROCKET MOTOR PRODUCTION AND TESTING. POR GUIDANCE AND CONTROL SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTION. AND FOR MISSILE INTEGRATION. IRAQ STILL DEPENDS ON FOREIGN SUPPLIERS FOR SOME RAW MATERIALS BUT IS PURSUING PRODUCTION FACILITIES FOR THESE MATERIALS IN ITS DRIVE FOR SELP-SUPFICISNCT. SEVERAL GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATIONS--ESPECIALLY THE TECHNICAL CORPS POR SPECIAL PROJECTS AND THE NASSR STATE ENTERPRISE FOR MECHANICAL INDUSTRIES--CONTINUE TO SEEK ADDITIONAL EQUIPMENT AND MATERIALS TO SUPPORT IRAQ'S MISSILE PROGRAM.
IRAQ HAS BASKD ITS MISSILE PROGRAM ON ASTRATEGY. WITH LOW-RISK AND HIGH-RISKRUNNING IN PARALLEL. AT THE LOW-RISK END. THREE FIVE MISSILES UNDER DEVELOPMENT--THE DOMESTIC VARIANTSAL HUSAYN AND THE AL ABBAS AND THE TAMUtfAREBASIC, PROVENECHNOLOGY. THE OTHER II AND THE AL HAMZA--USE MORE ADVANCEDAND GUIDANCE TECHNOLOGY. ALL OP THESEBASED ON FOREIGN TECHNOLOGY AND DESIGN. WE BELIEVENOT BE ABLE TO DESIGN ITS OWN MISSILES EARS.
CONDUCTING THESE PIVE MISSILE PROJECTS AT ONCE IS COSTLYSTRETCHES IRAQ'S FINANCIAL AND THE MULTIPLE DEVELOPMENTS, HOWEVER, PROVIDENET AND GIVE IRAQ SOMETHING TO FALL BACK ON IF ONEMISSILE PROJBCTS PAIL. WORKING WITH SEVERALTECHNOLOGY. SOME OP WHICH IRAQ WILL GRASP VERYTHIS SAFETY
WE BELIEVE IRAQ COULD BEGIN INDIGENOUS PRODUCTION OF ITS VARIANTS OF THE AL HUSAYN AND THE AL ABBAS BOTH SHOULD BE ABLE TOM TARGETS, -G WARHEADS, RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION, SOME AL ABBAS MISSILBS COULD BE EQUIPPEDG WARHEAD TO REACH TARGETS KM. IN THE MEANTIME. IRAQ WILL PUSH TO COMPLETE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONDOR II, WITH PRODUCTION POSSIBLY BEGINNING BY THE IF FOREIGN ASSISTANCE CONTINUES. IP THE FLOW OF ASSISTANCE IS INTERRUPTED, PRODUCTION COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THE. IRAQ COULD OPERATE DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTION FACILITIES ON ITS OWN, POSSIBLY WITHIN FIVE YEARS OF THE BEGINNING OF MISSILE PRODUCTION, f
HB JUDGE THAT. IN ADDITION TO HIGH-EXPLOSIVES WARHEADS, DEVELOP AND MANUFACTURE CHEMICAL AND POSSIBLYFOR ALL OF ITS MISSILE SYSTEMS. CHEMICALWARHEADS ARE MORE COST EFFECTIVE, RESULTNUMBERS OF HUMAN CASUALTIES, PROVIDE A AND MAKE TUBORE EFFECTIVE DETERRENT. HAS THE ABILITY TO WEAPONIZB ITS CHEMICALAGENTS. IT MAY ALREADYHEMICAL ITS MODIPIED
WE ALSO JUDCR THAT, DHPRNDINC ONE FOREIGN
ASSISTANCE, IRAQ MAY ALSO BE ABLE TOUCLEAR WARHEAD BEFORE THE END OF THE DECADE. IT IS PROCURING EQUIPMENT, MATERIALS, AND TECHNOLOGY THAT STRONGLYUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM EXISTS. BUT IT WILL NOTIMPLE TASK TOUCLEAR WEAPONISSILE'S WARHEAD. ALSO, THERE ARB WEAPONIZATION PROBLEMS- -HOW TO ENSUREUCLEAR DEVICE WILL SURVIVE MISSILB FLIGHT--THAT MUST BE SOLVED. IF THESE PROBLEMS ARE NOT READILY SOLVED, IRAQ COULD FACE TWO OK MORE YEARS DELAY INUCLEAR L'AY LOAD,
IN OUR ASSESSMENT, THE HIGH-PRIORITY STATUS OP IRAQ'SWILL CONTINUE TO COMMAND THE NECESSARY PERSONNELRESOURCES. IRAQ PROBABLY HAS PLACED SOME OF CAPABLE ENGINEERS, TECHNICIANS, AND MANAGERS OM IRAQ WILL CONTINUE TO FUNDOMBINATION OF IRAQI AND FOREIGN--PROBABLY IN THB PUTURB, IRAQ MAY SELLTO GARNER PRESTIGE AS THE EMERGING IN THB ARAB WORLD.
IN OUR JUDGMENT, CURRENT IRAQI MISSILE PROJECTS WILL BE DIPPICULT, IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE, TO STOP. IMPEDING THE FLOW OF FOREIGN ASSISTANCE, HOWEVER. COULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERABLY. THIS WOULD BEST BE ACHIEVED BY THWARTING IRAQI ATTEMPTS TO SECURB TECHNOLOGY IN AREAS SUCH AS GUIDANCE AND CONTROL, IN WHICH IRAQ HAS LIMITED, BUT GROWING, CAPABILITIES. IRAQ HAS, HOWEVER. PROVED ITSELF CAPABLE OF TAPPING INTO WESTERN AND OTHER NATIONS' AEROSPACE INDUSTRIES FOR TECHNOLOGY SUPPORT, DESPITE ATTEMPTS BY SOME GOVERNMENTS TO PREVENT IT. IT HAS EFFECTIVELYONSORTIUM OF WESTERN FIRMS KNOWN AS THB CONSEN GROUP AND HASOVERT PROCUREMENT NETWORK OP ITS OWN. THERE ALMOST CERTAINLY IS NO WAY TO BLOCK SUCH ASSISTANCE ENTIRELY. THE MISSILE TECHNOLOGY CONTROL REGIME WILL HAVE LIMITED SUCCESS AS IRAQ TAPS NONMEMBER NATIONS LIKE CHINA, INDIA. OR BRAZIL FOR ASSISTANCE WITH ITS PROGRAM. IRAQ PROBABLY WILL ALSO USE ITS SPACE PROGRAMONDUIT TO GAIN DUAL-USE TECHNOLOGY FOR ITS MISSILE PROGRAM. |
Original document.
Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: