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homeland Chief Minister Gatsha Buthelezi. anxious to rally popular support and secure his placeajor player in negotiations to determine South Africa's future political structure, launched the inkatha Freedom Party last month. The party is likely toodest number of new followers at best, but will afford Buthelezi an opportunity to seek tactical alliances with other groups. Most importantly, Buthelezi wants to be seen as operating on an equal footing wiih the unbanned African National Congress IANQ.
Butheleii Adjusts Strategy
Buthelezi has used Inkatha over the years toower base distinct from his formal positionomeland leader. Beginning in the, he attempted to translate his tribalfrom his rokeraditional Zulupolitical strength by resurrecting Inkatha.ormant Zulu cultural liberation movement. By9 Inkathaembershipillion. Few accept this figurerue indication of the group'sight of allegations that an Inkatha membership cardrerequisite for employment in KwaZulu as well as for allocation of homesites in certain townships. i
Although difficult to verify, press accountsnkaiha's support It is strongest among older, more traditional Zulus in rural areas, and reportedly has slipped in popularity among younger, urbanized Zulus in Durban and Johannesburg, largely in favor of the ANC. President de Klerk's unbanning of the ANC in0 has accelerated competition for supporters between the two groups and fueled violence.
FcJknving Nelson Mandela's release from prison in February, unrest escalated dramatically in southern Natal, where fighting has persisted for more than four years and resulted in moreeaths. Longstanding animosity frustrated early hopes irutl Mandela might broker an agreement io stop the violence Buthelezi is determined to protect his power base from ANC efforts to marginalize Inkatha. and appears to have gone on the offensive to attack ANC strongholds outside of Natal, most recently in Transvaal Province. The ANC, seeking inroads among Zulus, has set up offices in Natal Outraged by the large numbers of casualties among its supporters, the ANC has accused the KwaZulu police of collusion with Inkaiha, called for revoking Buthelezi's police powers, and demanded the dissolution of KwaZulu. In our view, only an agreement between Buthelezi andcould be difficult to sdl at the grassrootsreduce the level of vralence. |
Buthelezi may hope to compensate for his ebbing suppon byolitical pariy open to multiracial membership. Although he claims that Inkathaational liberation movement that transcends tribal lines, it has long been regarded as an almost exclusively Zulu group. Nonetheless. Inkaiha's advocacyonracial. roulliportyree market, and redistribution of wealth mayodest number of new members, mmmmj
Ut7 Ihv-ui
Looking for Allies
io the officii! launching of the new par.y. Inaatha officials extended an invitation toother political groups thai share common ground with them to join in an jlli.imc in preparation for future democratic elections. Buifteleti has reportedlythe press thai in light of Pretoria's reforms. Inkatha could conceivably form an alliance wtth die ruling Nattcoal Pany. Indeed, both the National Party and the proreform Democratic Party sent delegations to the launching of the Inkatha Freedom Party, presumably to lend support for Inkatha's move and emphasize their supponuture roletin leu in Sooih African
hair at (he Table Bulltclezl has pledged thai Inkatha willowerful force at the negotiating able despite ANC dominance of inna) discussions, and strongly disputes what he sees as the ANC'sanempt to monopolize political power. By virtue of his position as the prime voice for the nation's largest ethnicmilbonundoubtedly will play an important role in future constitutional negotiations. Moreover, he may be counting on his popularity with some whites to enhance his positionegotiator. In the Interim, however, Butheleii undoubtedly feels ovenhadowed by recent high-profile raeeungs between the ANC and the government, and is clearly anxious to remind his fellow South Africans of his importance. He probably believes the festive launch of his political party and plans to bold
a special conferenceajor ANChelp him to recapture the limelight
Outlook
The Inkatha Freedom Party is likely to resemble the old Inkatha in substance if not form. The new piny will undoubtedly pick up some support, but Us popjlanty will probably still be confined largelyulus in KwaZulu and Nauil Province. White support, even in email numbers, wilt bolster Butftelezi's position. As the party moves fanner afieldecruit new members, the potential forclashei wiih ANC supporters outside of Natal will increase,
lakatha's moderate positionsuture political and economic systematural alliance with the Nauomlisls djnng aegotoixvis and beyond. Nationaleaders have begun exploring the notion of alliances across racial lines, but are likely to Shun formal, public commitments early in the negotiating process. Moreover, even over the longer term, the racial dynamic cf the negccjucis and BuihclezTs personal ambiuons arc likely toolid front probtemauc.
Original document.
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