Warning Page
Tctrorism RericwYiji
TV RepuhBc erfScutting Down Support foe Terror!**
' YenjcnJ tnpeortfor tctrorlBlerigthy^egWtion "proceeT
pUns to cad
and Foreign Minister Iryani
iiBlriiiiB camps, and passports enjoyed by some terroristt. groups tmder tbe forntcr Sennh'resaieta regime. In the rnooUu precedine the
: regime In tbe moot ha preceding theormation last May. ^government of South Yemen bad already taken aosse steps to scale down its support for terrorist groups, apparently in
lc US md Nor.h. Jj [
lion of Stlib'i stated policy of dimlnatinghe presence to tbe new government of some
eaglaiy Urn*
-forms of.help to
lh Vemeni of5dali who bare supported radical Palestinian groups aad mvlined to do so ia the future increases the risk iport, might be providedaa*
,
lupport in any form lo terrorist Palestinian groups and will take steps toend taxy'-'South Yemen has had to terrorist groups:
gorernmeniallow twonianocratk From".the Ubcration of Palmtine and the Popular Frost tie Liberationto maintain their office, in Aden but will not let them havey
Cleanup Begun hy Aden
The ROY> current policy build. on Aderia efforttIbe declaration onay collieSouth Yemen took some steps toscale down iu *upport/or terroristinicapOnseJo US and North Yemeni pressure: -
Given the king limefor the bureaucralic Iniegniloo of the two Ye mens and th: presence in the new gOT*romeoial framework of former South Yemeni oCoeaab with finks to lerrorisi groups. President Salih may have trouble preventing terrorltu from entering the country and operating dandesilaely In the South. In addition, some tcrmiiu may be able to remain in Yemen by using passports provided by other countries that iipport Icrroriii groups That sew regime will clearly need time to implement control over the southern leeriloetr* and over South Yemeni officials who lupported radical South Yemeni polkai prior to
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Sedfet
Iranian Support forafsanjani's Report Cftrdjjp
Iranian iisvolvetnent In terroriin has oonlinuedsince tbc dot lb of Ayatullah Kbotne;ii bat June Arlhougb Rafsanjani has tout hinTprov* relations with aome Western nations since directly ssiuming ihe preaidency last August, evenU of the past year prove lhal Tehran coatlnuea to view the selective ate of terrorismegitimate poliiknl tool
iS^aVaaVn^HaV^aVmsV^HassV During tbe pui
year, [ran has been responsible" for sponsoring riunxeoui lacks against Saudi mi-resit and organlTationi affili-atcd with Salman Rushdies novel The Satanic Vein. In addition. Inn continue* to supportelements holdingestern hostages io
we believe RsvtsTnjani nnd Khamenei would closely monitor and approve tbe ptanning for an *j snack against US cr Western aW*m
Rafsanjani's Record: Targellng "Enernle* of the Regime'*
The terrorist attacks carried out by Iran during the past year were probably approved in advance1 President Rafsanjani and other senior leaders..1
The planning and impVeenchiatioo of these" chelations are, however, probably managed by other senior officials, most of whom are Rafsanjani's appointees or allies Mgaaat
Saudi Campaign. Innian-sponsored attacks againsi Saudi interests were also renewed under (beof Presidenl Rafsanjani. The recent retaliatory campaign isesult of Riyadh's ctecutton ofuwaitiof Iranianwere responsible for July.
Folio wine (he executions, senior Iranian leaders began calling for Shu to avenge the deaths of the "'martyrs'" by carrying oat retaliatory attacks against Saadi.and US interests These uatcmcnis may have encouraged radical Shia elements to carryeries of attacks against Saudi facilities and personnel.
nssible Hiti Ike Islamic lihad Org.iniralionizballah element headedad Mugliniy.ili.
To date, these retaliatory attacks haveves of foui Saudi officials, another was seriously injuredomb esptoded under the seat of his
carried out these assassinations. Mughniyah has close lies to Tehran, and the IJO demonstrated itscapability In Thailand by orchestrating the hijacking of Flightrom Bangkokrior to (he Bangkok assassinations, the IJO had already claimed responsibility for the assassinationaudi official in Beit
Anti-Rdshdie Campaign. Khamenei's reaffirmation of the faiwo calling for the death of The Satanic Venn author, Salman Rushdie, may have directly resulted in attacks againsi publishing houses and distributors affiliated with (hc novel. During (he past year bombing attacks occured throughout Westcni Europe and Asia We believe radical Shia elements will continue to cany out anti-Rushdie attacks-
| According to press reports, British officials believe they prevented an anti-Rushdielast winter when they arrested and deported nine Iranianof whom may have had connections to Iranian intelligencetheir involvement inushdie-related at-
Culiheiion of Radical Palestinians. Rafsanjani has continued to cultivate ties between Iranumber of radical Palestinian groups. Despite ideologicalbetween Iran and most radical Palestinian groups, they arc united in their desire to reject Arafat's more compromising approach aod tothe stale of Israel. These groups enhance Iran's operational capabilities because many haveoperatives, an established infrastructure in the Middle East and Western Europeecord of successful attacks. In addition, (hey provide Tehran with some degree of den lability and,esull, decrease the risks of militaryeeeni increase in ihe tensions between the Palestinians and
> approve lbc.urgc*seh
ver Soviet Jewish immigration, aod ihrcats by Iron and Hizballah, hai increased lhe possibility for atlacks against Western interests. If Iran provides financial and logistic assistance it will probablythe right to approve tbojlargel^ieleciion and timing of the attat
Coni/imtJ Deumioa of ike Weitertt Hasiagei.successfully orchestrated Ibe release of Robert Polhill and Frank Reed earlier this year, Tbcdecision to begin the process of resolving this issue probably arose from his belief that tbe hostages hadiability. Thu decision was probably prompted by Rafsanjani's desire to attract foreign invcstmcni and to cod Iran's intcroational isolation. Fc41cnving the release of Polhill and Reed, Hizballah and Iranian hardliners once again surfaced their old demands, including the release of Lebanese andprisoners held by Israel and Kuwait.]
Outlook: More of thc Same
President Rafsanjani and otber Iranian leaden will continue selectively using terrorismoreign poll tool to intimidate regime opponents, punish cnemic of Islam, and influence Western political decisions. The government* willingness to employ terrorism reflects the leadership's own views as lo tbeerrorism as well aa pressure from the hardliner* to coalinue the aggressive export of theack of resolve on tbe part of the Westunish Iran for attack* carried out on their soil duri the past year will undoubtedly reinforce thc Iraniai perception that it can continue its terrorist actiVitie without jeopardizing the possibility of Improved rel llonsa
Bombings of government facilities, assassination) of" poliiical and military officials, and hijacking* almostill remain ihc mains lay of terrorist 1
lions. Terrorist! are likely to adapt to Ihe
changing poliiical and technological environment,'. can experts estimate, however, that one new virui'has' however, by focusing on otber targets as wellbeeo mtroduccd per weekiruses can ain industrializedicriousain the technical expertise needed to insert viruses into government computers and corporate data bases. They also may target telecommunications androcessing systemid to lap into computerized -bonking and electronic fund sransfm.^kasssssssss^^multinational managers will be highly vulnerable to WdnsppingV particularly in parts of Asia, aad Latin America. Dams, reservoirs, andion plants tf> the.water^hort Middle East arc0
lieveiiseaa"
ption, particularly if they lack theto launch hijackings or paramilitaryefined as the targeting of computer 'systems and data bases with the Intention ofng, altering, or destroying data
Vhmtei and Oikir Tacilct.a that can be setestroy or alter data storedomputer'sbeen insetted into oompuier systems by mischievous and malictcau computer experts, sometimes witheffects, la recent years, computer virtues have surfaced In South Africa, Japan, India. LatinEaster nand Western Europe, and thc United Slates,
' Aemelai so the Computerelony ftHoeUttoo, vtrsna laed Suta bfccttd mort0 pnwnil compount and twnoo rmeUaea In
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techno'
ist attacks aga
that it may be rnonlhs between theirus ia rtg elcca^cat power to millionsof people,shutting Introduced and the time it il triggered Virusesown transportation systems, and bringing thousands usually inserted by disgruntled workers,f business and government cotrrpaieorinding
erthe past decade there have beengainst computer,factlilies:
In addition to viruses; terrorists mayttojanr "logicntoormelf-containedntroduced by an American graduate student Into the internetnationwide computer networkhai links computer centers belonging to federaluniversities, and researchmore
cornpulerssQJJOOinNceth America in November
rojan horsehato be legitimatev'buialicious code to ', destroyogic bombrogram added to an existing program which is triggered whenonditions are met. For example,ertainissing from personal records, all the data berased. aMfe
The Hacker Threat. Terrorists also could try to break into both secure and nonsecure data bases In an'eflort to acquire funds illegally and to blackmail
lions.'
in organiialion probably wouldirus can also be loaded onto aor disk before It is sentecipient,addition, terrorists may uy toirus bntoa-'j public computer bulletin board; psost bulletin board systems, however, take extensive precautions to avoid spreading vj ruses.,
* The Italia* Redu Ike onlv othereap tbit
jvbticly includes thc destruction of tompultr lyWeass as
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..IV. a*
are likely lo lake builncsimen hostageh* fuadaeaser degree to exchange them forMany group* are likely so keepsecrcl, calcsilaiing lhat corporation* "IIIwilling to meet their demands privately.ihoughremain at risk, we
believe Japanese buiminer, will face cecal, ifreater, tatreata because of growing idenlihcatioCeafoa^ aa the rareeasnssei
next few semi. Japanese business men will bearti of the world where theyi reajor peenemoc, such as soatheast Ami.businessmen may face additional ihreaiji aa they expand ibeir markets in Latin America, Africa, and
to destroy lightly defended reservoirs, da mi, and desalination plants of these countriesid to cause EasicrnEo public panic or to undermine eovemtncnli
EnrlroumrDlal Target*
far, there has been only one known attack on water supplies in the Middle East;
Some terrorist groups^id to attractoew support-cr* aodrcjuvenale their membership, arc litelyloexploit lhe growing issue of environ men talism and
| Terrorists may alio threaten to contaminate water supplies to intimidate moderate Arab countries.*
Foreign
BaVaaJaaMojV lhe threat to inter national bciirsessmcr. will ittcreasc in. Intkt,'teironsuarriedelatively *maII number ofgainst foreign buaincsamcn; forvaazsessanen and eight Japanese were kidnapped. Projected increases In International bus iocs* travel
r, will tnerease the attractive--ncs* of businessmen a* easy targetsroups
BlmX.
Chronology of
Below are described selecltd noteworthyforeign and inlerncccinvs emra: uer>Av-ing terrorists or the use of terrorist tactics. These rvr.vi hare mtaeamtw come to light since our last Issue. In some cases, theay not be known. Events end developments thai have, elsewhere In Ms publication are not inehd'dtjQ ^
Europe
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ne*bomb explodes aad another Is defused at two Bilbao. Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA) claimed
Spain: Explosive device, biddenkopplng cart andrumaaU, injures Spanish CM Guard member in Bilbao. ETA is luapecaaCfj}
Sort kern Ireland: Civilian Is shot and killed la kit Belfast borne by sm ttaaktd gunmen. The Irish Peoples' Liberation Organization claimedipy
Turkey: Terrorists raid kerne in Oaxerli tillage,ottest auaaSec. killing too persons and Injuring twob I _
Northern Ireland: Landmine explosionun andoyal Hitter Constabulary near Armagh. PIRA was reportedly
Bank: Masked youths beat and stab alleged collaborator ia Mas At*ya.tjjf
Bank: Masked youthsalestinian in hit Silvan home Tke wtisn worked for Ihe Jerusalem municipality.pdf
Wert Bonk: Assailants In Qalalyak beat toalestinian collaborailon.Jjj)
Lebanon: Bomb explode! in office af Abu Nidal organiiatioa dixsUems at Ar Rashidiyak camp. Tyre, killing one person and wounding four!
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