FORTHCOMING ELECTIONS IN BOLIVIA (ORE 10)

Created: 12/26/1946

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CIA HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM RELEASE IN FULL

central intelligence group

forthcoming elections in bolivia

ORE 10

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I.KCTJQNS IN bOLIMA *

The Bolivian Junta d* Ggbtcrnp. which assured power following thepopular revolt against the Villarroel refiir* onuly c(r, not* regards as accorrplishod its self-iirposed niasion to restore constitutional democracy in Bolivia. It has, accordingly, scheduled aelectionanuary, and given assurances of its intentiontep aside, as soon as the votes are counted, in favoropularlyresident, vice-president, and congress. The achievements of the Junta caretaker govern-ent and the issues in the elrctlcns are discussed In the Enclosure hereto.

Junta Presidentespected nMber of Bolivia' Judiciary, has pledged thatanuarj elections will be the freest in Bolivia's history. believe that this pledge will be kept. This is Indented, by the success of Atonje Gutierrez* drive to el Inliiotesyrpathizers fron nil strategic posts in theforces and the civil service, by the fact that he is notandidate In thej,nd by the energy and inpartiality with which heit colleagues haveintained tht indispensable electoralf expression andthroughout the cvpatgr. it is highly improbable that any disaffected el-wents will atterpt to prevent thi elections by anlo *rR5. since the *onJe Gulicrroz caretaker gcrrervnt today en-;oyt th* support cf all ther$*iized grcurs In Bolivia save thc .'ir.ers* Federation.

etailed forecast cf the votlig pattern la ccnrpl ieated by the fact that the strength of Bolivia's political parties has noteir electionn> yearshe elInlnationwjor political party (the MoviMnto t'aciona! Ravel.iclor.ario, whichthe Vlllarroele believe that:

(a) Tr*n-CoxnrunistPIP (Partido dc :zc.uieriE rxvcluelonarla)axfer popular

follow toe thar. any other party participating ir. IDS el-cticr.s, andthereforeator.sider-.tle pluralitytne seats

lr. th* lower house Of Congress. (Under Bolivia's electoralingle' part} car.op-beery plurality Intc.)

(c) ;or: ;to dinfton fouls

GtiMttlU, supportedoose four-party coalition organized by the FIR, will (itfoet ex-minister of Labor Joaeriqueno is supportedhree-party conservative coalition.

TrTTs report has the cVr.currVnce of thegencies of the fcarvy Pc-partmnts and the Army Air Ebretc- Dcprrtr*cnt cement in. nvailetle; substantial dissent, i( any. v. ill be reported when received.

(c) Guacnalla Kill not be assured ol easy control of Congress because, although his coalition will probablyftjority of the scats in both houses, each party therein is presenting and will control its owr. congressional candidates.

[a] Bolivia'sCO organized miners, who insist that the elections arc being'held prematurely, may yet decide to run their own candidate or, failing that, to support neither Guachilla nor hertzog.* Their decision, however, is not likely to uxert ainfluence on the electoral results, since they account for less than JOS of lhe electorate.

4. While the resultant government will, because of Bolivia'son Argentina for essential food supplies be under great pressure to jcin Peron's projected economic bloc (Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uryw.vay, Bolivia, Peru), it will resist this pressure to the utircst andarked preferencero-US economic orientation. The US, in viev O- its interestemisphere source of tin, will, derive greet long-run benefits from any increase in tin production, and any improvement in relations between capital and labor in the tin industry, that the new governoent may be able to achieve or. the basisoderatel> leftist approach to the nation's economic problems.

" USLa Pas, by telegram datedeportede Pprtido Cbrero Dcnccratico Boliviano has nominated for President cx-Ccneral Felix Tabera, said to be associated with the leader of theederation.

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Ashi'vataants of IM caretaker fovernmeni. The Bolivar, eeorocychrcricnlly "sick" econyr-y, because of (a) the cunulat Jvelyposition of Bolivian tin in the world

end ill-distributed natural resource!), apitalpoaslblo the development of the country's transportation system, ar.o (q) the constant pressure of population upon en insufficient food

Besides these continuing problems, cnjc Gutitrruz Juntafron* th* Villarroelonetary infletion,or-eier. policy whose orientation towards Argentine had caused many cf the Country's neighbors to withhold recognition from its government,eonccr.ic end political situation which had beene nore then two years of police-state exploitationoppression.or.ctary inflationroblem; but whun the newly elected Frlliitnt taker, over next month, Honje Gutierrezble to point

'adjustment! that have stemmed the rising tide or discontent among the masses of the population,c) the return of control ever Bolivia's destinies to0 qualified voters.

The issues in the elections. Both candidates for the presidency have pledged thcir-iselvcs to carry out the progran of reconstruction,and social refont which the Honje Gutierrez caretaker gov*rnrent has initiated during ils five-oor.th tenure of power. This prcgret. includeside measure of government intervention in eco^ir.lc affairs, "progressive" labor and educational policies, and pop -ultr control over government. Adaption of these objc-clivos by tbc new government is to be expected no matter who wins the election. Bolivia nil therefore be added to the growing list of South African countriesi.rgentlna, Cclorbia, Chile, Venezuelan which the traditionally conce'vativr elements have evidently found thenxelves without their pop-uler following. This does not mean, however, that there ere no issues at tIRke in the election. HurtKog, while he mekes his appeal fcr voles inie of "moderate socialism", has avoided specific and detailed premises ofchange,he FIP, mentioned above as the largestef tuacrujlla, proalses the Bolivian :asses higher livirgrCfl "regressive" taxenerous social welfare andealth prcprajr, and redistribution of land ownership. The otherhe Cuechelle coalition, the Liberal Tarty, whilel ire PIC proposals, stresses its faith in free individualac, and can, echalla wins, be counted upon tonfluence on IIR txtre*ists ift Congress. Beth the PI* ane*attention to the crisis in the tin Industry as a

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