PROBABLE PURPOSES OF THE WARSAW CONFERENCE

Created: 6/24/1948

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Assistant Director,

probabls Purpose* of *t* Warsaw Confsronoo

1. tlng in Warsaw or Soviet Foreign.md tne Porflgn Kini-tsn, oftoto dlacusa the effecta of,eplySU-Powar Agreement on westernataata from the need to create an Baittrn.astern Germany oould bopolitically, fitted to match thoternofweatern oermany in tb* ftn^opeamFront th- form* lit, or

l-rdT^ the daOegataai and fWm th*wyAttending the gathering,laration oT^-rDortsaaoe may bo awpsotsd at Its exclusion. Forand polltioal raaaoma, th. Int^tion. of the gWweurrwnt soa* -explanation- ir, advance to the satellite,ater public announoaaiaot of aatelllte approval*

8. At prssont thro* course* or tathmlncaabLxatioTof tb*reo th. OTSB. iTafore adopting any ofour.es, th* TJoSB willformation of an Kaatam bios to defend Itself against aggroaalcoermany a. ostabliahcd by ths western powers. Th* Soviet motion In Oorwaury could toot

Announcement of an Intention totho Germans toreviaionel goverrmtent forGermanyI

b. An attempt to open notation,ar

woatornrrj .eeaXO ni TOUAIIS OH

o. Tmasedlate aatablJ*hatatxtuarporte-llyor-anUh propaganda ^afcaiislawi oftha restoration of ib* Rolen.

>KRET

9* Tha dogre* of consolidation now reached woold permit tho OSSR to lay tho foundatlonaro vial cmal government* In auoh forma an aconstitution and "fro* elections". rovisional government In tha Sovlat Zona vould not lncroaso tho Qconoolo bonoflta to th* TJ3SR, it would balano* th* seal* of political developments In oermany permitting th* Soviet union to saw* face ln any further no go tiam.

4* For reason! elaborated ln special BvoluatlonS, th* OSSR haa bean expected to attempt to enter into negotiations with the woatem powers In order to delay farther or to prevent an appreciable western oenaan contribution to th* European rocovory program* To bo aoooptable, auoh an attempt would havo to bo undo before th*ook final nation toat* in eaateom Oarmany. Although soviet bohavior in Oormany, particularly in Berlin* has boon far from conciliatory it haw not bean ao definitive or final aa to preclude further negotiations and nay even have been designed to fore* th* western powers into diseuaalona.

5* Aa waa set forth In ORB8ho ossn haa been engaged in ocoxsolldatlng political and eeoricfBlo oontrol of aaatarn Qenmany to enable tha USSR tonte 1X1 toat* at thla tine. But, aa wan alao stated in Special Evaluation Ho. SL, th* beneflta to tha USSR fromouraa would not now be substantially greater than those resulting from tha present ayetern, Tha action would, moreover, preclude th* possibility af partial soviot oontrol over woatem Germany and interference with tha Mrnan contribution to th* European rocovary program*

6. Consultation with th* aatelUt* states, while not absolutely necesaary under auoh stringent control aa exeroiaod by th* USSR, would be desirable In order to obtain public satellite au^mrt for yrepagaiina and psychological raaaona. any action resulting ln tho establishmenteman government or ln th* unlfloatlon of oormany, therefore, would warrant Soviot assurances, to tha aatellltea on matters of security, boundary1 ora Ins, and on tha typo of German state to be evolved.

n view of tbavM conoldorotlcria, CIA bel Iotqs that tho TTESR lo usingrena oonference to lnfom tho aatellltao of Forlot intentional

fern an "Kenterngainstsgt^eaalon oponaored by ths eastern powers]

rogrsn for tho creationprovisional government kotoning lnpossibly In ttntng, tho one contonplatodweatti and

stenalbly to penult the at actually to prevent plane for weetern

esire, possibly seWassjJterns, for roausptlon of nogotlationo

with the weerbern powers oat ens unlfloatlonraauy. bat ao th* roaXlzation of Allied plan Ootmny.

sorr

Th* aootlng inf Soviet Foroisiand tb* foreign aliilatara of thoto dlflcatt tho London egrognentBreate tuiwlern

bloc into ohloh eontorn aermany could ba ooxaMaAaajqy-if not politically, rltt^dtrTsuitch tho taSSSSTiW ?OBte^Qto tb* Buropean roenvory prograw. Son* deolarotlcn of Inpord^anco nay bo axpaotod at tho cotton

formation of an -gastaro Won" to protect tho USSR and It.lnnt aggression fron a

(o) imodlato

eeUbllahwant of an allegedly indopandontnana rs*tWlion of th*ob. CIA boUovon that tho tESB ha* oonvonod tho warn

to oatobliah th*torn Union" and to infoosar ito intention toropST for th. eroatianrovisionalaoxuny Batching innd poaaibly in timing, tho on* oontesrplatod tn tho woWt and tohly couched In rneo-aarving to roaoh an avontoal solution olth thoofffln of oarnany thatontlaraoiwry to all "

skkt

Director

Original document.

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