WEEKLY SUMMARY

Created: 10/29/1948

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

WEEKLY SUMMARY

1

SECRET

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE NCY

Soviet representative Vlshlnskv's moderate veto statement, made daring the voting on the Security Council compromise proposal, suggests that the USSR may be Interested in an eventual face-saving solution of the Berlin dispute. vlshinsky barely referred to the contention of the USSR that the UN has no jurisdiction over the BerlinThe Soviet representative defended the veto largely on the grounds that the proposed ending of the blockade and the Introduction of the Soviet currency in Berlin were not to be simultaneous. This Implicit willingness to accept the UNorum for negotiation on Berlin indicates that there Is still some possibility that the USSR is interested ina compromise solution to the dispute.

The Soviet Union may now be inclined towardbecause it recognizes that the Berlin blockade hasdissuade the western powers from proceeding withorganization for western Germany or to forceof Berlin. The USSR may even recognize that theof the airlift, combined with the firm stand ofpowers,aised western prestige inincreased German hostility to the Sovietplans for rearmament and military coalition;precipitated the local problem of Berlin into aworld scope, far exceeding Soviet calculations.further developments in tbe UN, the USSR willfor positive evidence that the airlift can, orthe Berlin

WESTERN EUROPE

GERMANY

Soviet action.In eastern Germany during the past three months Indicates that the Kremlin Is acceleratingwhich would permit the establishment of an easterngovernment capable of assuring Soviet domination with or without the support of Soviet occupation troops. TheSocialist Unity Party (SED) Isurge which will ultimately replace all members of non-Communist parties and unreliable Communists now holding hey positions in the SED with reliable Stalinist Communists. The cadre thus formed will become the instrument forCommunist control of the SED, the VolkskongrcsB, and other Communist front organizations. In conjunction with Soviet domination of the German Economic Commission and the Administration of the Interior, the SED will contribute materially to Soviet control of eastern Germanyommunist minority.isciplined SED willSoviet-Communist control of the Soviet sector of Berlin following the anticipated spilt in the Berlin city government afterecember western sector elections. In addition, eventual Soviet domination of eastern Germany is being facilitated by efforts to strengthen and reorganize theof the Interior. The Administration, through the SED party structure, is now in practically roll control of the zonal government downounty level; theof the Administration thus is strikingly similar to the centralized police system of the Nazi regime. The Administration can now exercise moat c' tbe powersinistry of the Interiorotalitarian state, including control of public prosecutors through the criminal police.0 specially trained and selected police, under the control of the Administration and quartered in barracks throughout the Soviet Zone, are being equipped

GERMANY

with carbines and machine guns, and they may eventually be equipped with heavier weapons. Ia the hope of appealing to German nationalism, this new police force may be headed by Germans formerly Identified with the Free German

An armed Invasion of South Korea by the North rean Peoples Army Is not likely until (IS troops have in withdrawn from the area or before the Communists

have attempted to 'unify" Korea by some sort of coop. Eventual armed conflict between the North and South Korean governments appears probable, however. In the light of such recent events as Soviet withdrawal from North Korea, intensified Improvement of North Korean roads leading sooth, Peoples' Army troop movements to areas nearerh parallel and from Manchuria to North Korea, and combined maneuvers. Communist agents have been directed to intensify disturbances in South Korea in November, ostensibly to facilitate anearlylthough this Invasion may not materialize, such disorders as the recent Yosu uprising (inommunist-led constabulary unit attacked town police and constabulary officers) wouldoviet claim before the UN that the South Korean regime is unpopular and supported only by the police and the US Army. Proven Communist complicity In such incidents may react against the USSR In the UN, but Communist efforts to initiate riots and strikes will continue in order to pave the way for North Korean control of the entire peninsula following the withdrawal of US forces.

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Original document.

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