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OF USSR MILITARY INTENTIONS IN SOVIET PROPAGANDA BROADCASTS
CIA HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM RELEASE IN FULL
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8
SVIDEHCB OF USSR faLTTAfg Ilfi'-JITjOfiS^vWSpVTgT ?ROPAGA!IDA BRQAl&ASTS
The, rVob^ru Are current Soviet radio broadcasts to CSSR and Satellitea) prcparine tfcom for possible hostiliJiisoj or (b) assuring thea tftex war ia unlikely?
Ths ovarelt pattern of aouitorod Soviet radio brcadcastB to tho CSSR and the Satellites ia not one of assurance that an eventual war io unlikely. The assumptionossible future *jar iritb the West isin Soviet pnjpagandi; sincehe nontl) of Seoretary Bymoa' Stuttgari speech and the resignation of Kallacs from tha Gafclr.cte Subsequently Soviet propaganda ban had an explicit and vituperative eatl-OS, onti-Tie stern, and anti-capitalist orientation. Thesefor ceo are portrayed as engagedonstantorces of democracy",the USSR, tha Satellites, sod "progressive0 olesonta everywhere.
Soviet radio propaganda contains two elomonts ijhich logically could bo expected if the OSSR were preparingnadiato hostilities: (l) positive identification of the sainhe ITS;oviet championship of peace.
On the other hand, Soviet broadcasts currently ovoid or minimize in-
portent themes which could be expected to occur with considerable frequancy
If the Kronlin mo preparing for early hostilities. Soviet propaganda is
confined largely to generalized accusations against en "imperialist as**-
TOP PTCRET
Bongering enexry". The Soviet bloc is not portrayed as in danger of Immediate
sdHtnvy attack or invasion. is navsr presentedossible outcomj of ft specific inUrwitlcruTj situation or incident. toniOCB policies ore XJivsrselly attacked, tatver cepictec asu point siierc they scald no lancer be tolerated by Un 0SS3. The dsrir&bility of batingestsrs "inafciyators0 nut" is slaosi whollyin currentt3. Jrui of isiHtsay superiority over thef.nd its alliesclaims eiiicfc vouid appear vltel te theeparation of the Soviet peoplesare very infrequent.
Ths iMk or uKprccis on the thosraaho precedingthe general consistency between tbG pattern of current broadcasts nnd those of tbo praccding Booths, loadp to tho conclusion that the Soviet- Union ie not preparing for isswdiete rar.,
vwo detailed discussion ot' the relevant trends in Soviet is/lioeca Special Report of the Foreign Broadcast information Pruich, CIA, dotedC- which io attached hereto*
^ncjji^ofjgt Currant Soviet radio propaganda apparently is net preparing the peoplas of the OSSR and its Satellites forostilities. Soviet broadcasts otrorgly iaply, hawavur, Ibet ultisato orsod conflict between tbe USSIS and the ftsstara Korld is probable.
mp mam
The Problen; Arc current Soviet radio broadcasts to USSR and Satellite(a) preparing them for possible hostilities; or (b) osfluring them that wor is unlikely?**
iij andorces and governments ofst, headed by the United States III
fcy" (identified with the USSR, tho SaSuitS andar with MMnb^Z^ tosc^Lc
Ver: (including
currentubsequent to the initiation of this anti-American
^rflSCriJa! "EK?to Qn wecnt special roquoatr*tioe limitation. Of necessity, therefore
ld rCtc ^tailed,esearch techniques and aetheds that can and should be allied l> tnemeteriol
campaign, it was found that tho basic pottcrn of the offensive has not been very appreciably changed.
Current Soviet Broadcnstn to USSR pnd_Sn^tcljJtcs_
A. EJ-EfcfgHTS. tfi BE_HJJfCTEP_INFOR Tlg_PQS5IDILITY OF TWIDKHTAND yFRFCLVBLY FgFS^NT IH CWBEliT SOVIET eOArCASTS
Identification and, Portrnvnl of tho EnoBY: No quantitative count is necessary to establish tho overwhelming presence of this propagandists decent in current Soviet broadcasts. As nas tho case when Moscow first lounched its onti-Aoioricon offensive, thc United States is charactt.-izod os the power in which is combined oil of tho values end policies thatoviet and "progressive" or "rtinocratic" viewpoint ore to be feared, abhorred, and corabattcd. Nothing good is said oboutfor fairly persistent bows to American "progressive" forces, currently under tfallaco's leadership; and even such references ore made primarilyeans or giving further publicity to the evils of established American policies.* Tho United Statos, whose foreign and domestic policies ore dominated by u'all Street, monopolists, and imperial lets, Is portrcyed in varying degrees of emphasis os anti-progressSve, onti-democratic, imperialistic, expansionist,hreat to pi-ace, onti-Soviet,reakerrotector of fascists end Nazis, etc.
Soviet Championship of Pcppe: To Judge by thc content of Hitler'sspeeches, os well as of Roosevelt's speechesonsiderable attention to ond extensive soIf-championship of peace is another of the elements that can be expected to appear In the event of propagandists preparation for itnincnt oar. And this clement is by no neons absent fron Soviet propogondr which portreys the USSP. ond its Satellites, in contrast to the United States and countries friendly to it, as the only nations defending, struggling for, and intent upon the cause of peace. This is held true of Soviet policy and actions throughout theand in everysituation in which itart. In addition to Soviet concern forractically every Soviet action or position on the" international level is juotified at one time or another by explicit references to the Soviet struggle for and defense of peace. (Relative to internal Soviet and Satellite affairs, less frequent allusions toreconstruction, peacetimemade.) Noteworthy, howewr, is the fact that among current Soviet broadcasts3, studied quantitatively, explicit references to Soviet and/or Satellite concern Tor peace are made only one-tenth os frequently as explicit charges of Imperialism, militarism, "bloc"-formation, aggression,aid to the United States.
should be noted, however, that the Soviet anti-American campaign does not Include the American "people" as an object of attack. And to the extent that the Wallace "progressives" and other "democratic" forces and groups are recognized and identified as scae American elements for good, struggling against established government policies, striving for peace, desiringwith thc Soviet Union,o this extent, it can be said that the Soviet portroyal of. is not completely ond uniformly negative.
priaesuch as Hitler's on the Soviet eCr *lhan generalisedBar,Eone"In6 Identification of one's own
Thishe potential enemy is required. TtajJtocwdOva by explicit references to the "anti-Soviet" or anti-Satellnc characterestern, ioperialist conduct. fat th. wjority
To th Si Propaganda and slanders" constitute the overwhelm^ balk of thw; and even chargesc sort of action byhe fato. *ta Portion of the Soviet
OFPOSSIBILITY
Contexts; Again judging by the results of quantitative analysesspeeches end of Roosevelt's speeches subsequentming and developing popular confidence,^ineiit hostilities, propaganda lie
Dn *to include frequent allusions to self-strength in contexts explicitly or illicitly relevant to possible war. And this la one element that is most noticeably sliChted, or at least not dwelt
?5fcjcoo's warrant doaeatic S'.he"CGS.
inxorality, as there are
JO Sovie- Dilitory strength. The relevant references to Soviet military strength that do appear are madentirely in tors* of ther< lhcintervention. Such iteas, occasioned priroarUy by anniversaries of military victories or by sueh events as Array, Navy, and Air Force Days, all contain statements about Soviet railitaryre only iRrrc<lwtly and sparingly extended
capitalism, or
reminders to 'instigatorsew war" to remember what happened to Hitler
^rOJit^Sibulwkpeace- Thc -PHea?ions; ho.vever ore rarely spelled out further. Claims of superiority to capitalism are
thii tl,J 0nkS> occa3lonaU-lotov's statement
that the atomic bomb is noecret was dropped almostnor has it reappeared in current Soviet broadcasts. And as to explicit identification of the United States (or any other country) as the nation that should remember Hitler's fate, the following items are pracUcaUy^que:
"Under the debris of the war machine of fascist Germany there was buried not only the adventurous theory of theut also the
Tr^lV lthanaicS' inwhich the cost
prominent military theorists of bourgeois countries took port. The srort-
sighted politicians of the imperialist camp of the United States one Britain and their military theorists, dreamingew world war, are again trying to base themselves on the theory of theroviding itew materialatom bomb. They ignore the experience of the Second World War which demonstrated the utterof this theory." H> STAR article by Major Ceneral Zublfov, quoted by TASS, in Russian Hcllschreiber to the Slav areas,
Onndhe Soviet Home Service broadcast excerptseries of ffiAVDA articles by Sholokhov who wrote. imperialists, "seeking their solvation inre attempting tothe USSR as defenseless and weak, as an easy prey to the swashbuckling Marlboroughs of the American legions." In refutation, he quoted fron the "eloquent figures of the State Planning Commission" and told the storyalf-filled grave containing the skeletonerman soldier from whose gaping mouth, "filled wiih fertilecurling shoot of convolvulos bearing its delicate flowers. Yes, indeed! Wereat deal of fertile earth and we have more than sufficient of it to stuff the mouths of all who would dare to pass from tall: of fatal encounters to action."
As to Soviet economic strength, more frequent comparisonseand the capitalistwhich the Soviet Union issuperior. Here too, however, such claims are made interms; it is the Soviet socialist "system" that is superior,or specific production achievements. The latter isurely internal context and is not putilitary or :. (it-fficier.'
and prepared for war.")
The same may be said of Soviet references to Satellite strength, except that thc Satellite miliary is olraost never racnt;or.cri--even on anniversaries. Claims of Soviet-Satellite unity and cooperation, whilen Soviet broadcasts, rarely imply materialainstcst; rather, moral ond political strength.
. Actual Possibility: Soviet radio propagandists, for all their talk about American and Western expansionism, militarism, and warmongering, studiously avoid any suggestion that war is an actual imminent possibility. Affirmations of Soviet and Satellite bravery and readiness topecific enemy orpecific situation, such as appeared frequently inf they want war, we are not afraid tond morein Roosevelt's speeches9 than in thosee must be ready for heroicre almost completely absent from Soviet The rare charge, made some months ago, that the Greek situation was being developed by. and the "nwnarcho-fascists"ar threat to Greece's northern neighbors was never elaborated nor emphasised; nor were even implicit inferences drawn as to the possibility of resistance by these Greek neighbors. War is never presentedossible actual outcomepecific situation or incident. The current Berlin situation, for example, is either discussed in relatively dispassionate, objective terms or its importance ir. aininiiKefl via derision of those who have allegedly blown it
upajor issue. American actions and policies in this situation and outers, though thoroughly attacked, arc not presented as if they were becoming completely untenable, as if they were reaching the point where they could no longer be tolerated by the Soviet Union.
PttWiny of pnl1nrJjteJa>Jtirnof Bar"- Reference, to the desirability of hatred forhe west, imperialists, etc. (ouch as the explicit Soviet idealization of Nazi-hating and German-hating during the war) is another element that is almost wholly absent from current The one end only monitored item on this order appeared in6 in the above-quoted PRAVDA article by Sholokhov who said:
"Let not our hatred of our foo3 grow cold even if he has been hung. Let it continue to rageen-fold fury in our hearts towards those for whom there is no naac in human language, towards those who have not yet satisfied their lust for profits derived from the blood of Billions and who in their satanic and blind folly areew war for suffering humanity. uhile they live, and while like profligates they spend billions of dollars in the asking of atom boobs and for the preparationonstrous war, let our indestructible hatred of them continue. It will core in handy at the right time."
trcpo^anda
In addition to examining current Soviet broadcasts with reference tothemes and elements that would bo expected were Moscow to be preparing its nationals for the possibility of Imminentuantitative study of selected themes appearing in Soviet broadcasts over the past two years has been mode to determine the degree to which the pattern of current Soviet broadcasts is different from those of the prior period. As mentionedas found that Xfascow's systematic propaganda campaign against thc United
was not counted until after Assuming that this campaign was not initially undertaken by Moscow in propagandistse Possibility of imminent war, one could expect an appreciable difference between the pattern of this initial campaign and thc pattern of current broadcasts if Soviet propagandists were now engaged inrcporation. The results of this study, however,emarkable general consistency between thc thematic pattern of current broadcasts and that of the preceding months.
A. TmpmtotmWSL OTkHE: References lo war and peace were made with greatitler's pre-war speeches, and were much higher inpeeches9 thnn before. Judging thereby (as well as oy other social-psychologicalne could expect on appreciable increase in such references in Soviet propaganda if Moscow wore torogram of preparation for the possibility of imminent war. But this is not the case with the twoestern, Imperialist warmongering; and Soviet-Satellite defense of peace-taken as representative of such nir-pcace references in Soviet broadcasts to ISSR and Satellite nationals.
6 -
Tho following graph presents the relative frequency of Soviet use of the tern "warmongering" (or its equivalents) during selected periods over the past two years-
June 1-
W OJJJJJU]
19i? Sept.
May
6-u Minnnj
Nov.
/mumuJIB
July
excor
It should be noted that the period 7 during which the theme was most prominent immediately followed Vishinsky's "warmongering" speech at the General Asseobly which the Soviet radio played for all it nas north. What is significant, however, is that this campaign againstwas allowed to recede to approximately the same diffuse level ii occupied prior to the speech. Nor, despite recent official Soviet protests over "warmongering" press rod periodical articles, has it since been revived
anything like the volume accorded it lamed lately subsequent to Vishinsky's orlotion.
There has been somewhat more variation in explicit references to Soviet support of peace; but the variations that do occur do not represent anythingrend in any particular direction. In general, they reflect temporary attention to such events as Hugh Daillie's and Stassen's interviews with Stalin and the Siaith-ttolotov exchange, when references to the issue of peace and the Soviet defense of it rose perceptibly. These campaigns, hottver, do not continue; and currently such references are relatively fewer than they were during the period3 In general, Soviet protestations ot peace have been made less frequently than Soviet charges of "warmongering."
, Eft!.- Ofhe concepts used to
describe or ottack American policy, that of "imperialism" appears the most rrwquently. Carrying dynamic, aggressive connotations, the term (or its equivalents) is used to portray.riving, expansionist poner intent upon the domination of the world. Here, too, one could expect an opprecioblc increase in frequency of such references If the Soviethad currentlyrogram of preparation for the possibility or imminent war. The evidence indicates otherwise, however; for in the periods (since the anti-American offensive began) selected for study, the
frequency of explicit references. "imperialism" (or its equivalents) has remained remarkably constant, as indicated in thc following graphthese relative8 June 1-
Aug. 13 jJJj/lliJMU/J
mimiTLuiiuiiJ IMMUillUW iium/Mi/mwut U
V.'KSTKRNj
rrri-.SATjujTE^
-AMDiSATELLITE..STRENGTH (in military or internatjonal contexts!; Similar consistency and uniformity of usage is apparent for each of these, references to which could he expected to increase noticeablyoviet propagandists preparation for the possibility of imminent war currently under way.
"Aggressive". Policies- Only explicit usage of the terms "aggressive" or "aggression" (which appeared with markedly increased frequency in some of the Berlin radio's campaigns of preparation for imminent hostilities during the war) was counted.
ug. 13
22i7
3
Nov.
a?46
ff
JW
AnjfcadeJAtft terras (or their equivalents) were counted.
Again, only explicit references to the
It should be noted that this is the only element of those quantitatively studied whose frequency of use prior to the mounted anti-American campaign was at the same relatively high level occuring during cost of the selected periods subsequent to the launching of this campaign. The atypical frequency in the=6unction of Hugh Baillie's interview with Stalin which was used to
. Sept,
May
5
Aug.
Peace-loving Sov eJ En?on anf Jhe X;ca(led byS occa^allyquency of appearance is
June 1-
Aug. 13
22-
S
to strength bl military or international context (implied or explicit) were counted.
1-Aug. 13
ug. 6
those of the selected periods prior*
ffiJSSK*-! ExP"cltoC term (or equivalents) ns counted
- lsrIne -Hilary baseshe world, is reviving German ond Japanese BiliUry potential, etc.
June 1-
Aug. 13
Sept.
May
muu/im/
Nov.
tWJ/JUU/
July
an/1S?t, although not statistically significant, rise P CXPliCtth* desirability of'sas?-
W
flffi
/
American "Bloc"-Formation: All explicit references to the Brussels Pact, the Western Union,nd Westerninspired military alliances were counted.
ug. 13
3
5
Julyug. 8
Eoth of these appreciable increases are intelligible on the basis of events during the first few months The increase in references. militarism can be plausibly related to President Truman's preparedness speech in llarch,roup air force, etc. Ard the increase in references to "bloc"-formation can be related to the actual formation of the Western Union and to discussions relative to the addition of other countries to it; there has been special Soviet emphasis recently on the ur.desirnbility of Scandinavian participation in this alignment.
Original document.
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