CONSEQUENCES OF THE WITHDRAWAL OF UNITED STATES FORCES FROM TSINGTAO (ORE 47-48

Created: 8/13/1948

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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CENTRALB

CONSEQUENCES OF THE WITHDRAWAL OF UNITED STATES FORCES FROM TSINGTAO

There has been no substantial change In the situation in China with respect to Tsingtao since the publication of,

Certain modifications,or supplementary points which shouldgiven considerationresent reading ofre given below:

a. The position of the National Government Is somewhat weaker than ln June. Therefore, there lo Increased likelihood that US wUh-drawal from Tsingtao might touchhain of events.resulting Xx the collapse or overthrow of the Coverrtment.

Strength figures Ic Shantung province (see page three) for the first week of August wore an estimated totalommunist troops,ationalist troops. Of the Communist troops, Including thc better quality troops, were concentrated ln tho Tainaniles from Tsingtao. It is improbable that lhe Comraunlsts could assault Tsingtaounless the bulk of these troops were moved, along the rail line, to Eastern Shantung.edeployment would probablyonth's time and could haruly occur without detection.

steadily ailvancing disintegration of the Nationalgives added significance to thc point mentioned onb; "Byoothold ln Tsingtao the US couldcontact and give support to non-Communist dc factowhich might emerge in North China as thc power ofGovernment fleclines."

weatinoss has Increased thc possibllty of aa point notonsideration ln, butineacetheovenuncnt and the Chinese Communistsin the Immediate future, this does not precludehostilities In partlcvUar areasesult of agreementscommanders. In negotiations either oa'a nationalhe Chinese Communists might seek USTsingtao among thtlr terms.

oordinated with the Intelligence organizationsof SUte, Army, Navy, and the Air Force.

CW HISTORICAL REVIEW PROG RELEASE IN FULL

Original document.

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