WEEKLY SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
Molotov-Mikoyan Shift No basic change in Soviei policy toward
the West can be expectedesult of recent personnel changes in the Soviet hierarchy. These changes were probably designed Io Increase the efficiency of party and state mechanisms, both politically and economically. Therapid consolidation of the West, as currently exemplified by the Atlantic Pact, ts the Immediate reason for the personnel changes The realignment of personnel simultaneously presages Intensified efforts to consolidate and strengthen the Soviet orb'r politically, economically, and militarily.
The cold war can be expected to continue undiminished in intensity. Recent speeches by western European Communist leaders Suggest that subversion and sabotage, In addition lo more conventional tactics, eventually willore important role in Soviei-Communist strategy against the West. Responsibility for formal political and economic relations with the West has passed from Molotov and Mlkoyan lo Vlshlnsky and Menshikov, bothexecutives without policy function who can be expected to adhere religiously to policies established by the Politburo.
The relief of Molotov, Mlkoyan, and Voznesensky from operational responsibility will leave them free to concentrate on pressing problems of political and economic policy of the entire Soviet orbit. Molotov, as heir apparent to the Soviet throne, would be the logical choice to assume over-all command. Suchwould bring him one step closer to eventual assumption of complete power in the event of Stalin's retirement or death.
Mlkoyan and Voznesensky are the best-qualified Soviet leaders to deal with the economic consolidation and strengthening of the Soviet bloc. Mlkoyan Is apparently the leading figure in the Soviet-inspired Council of Economic Mutual Assistance (CEMA) which has already begun to assume the function of economic planning for the entire Soviet bloc.
One of the first results of this Soviet realignment will probably be shown in the handling of the case of Tito. Tito's defer -tton.wlth Its ramifications,is undoubtedly the most pressing internal problem of the Soviet sphere andrastic solution tothe further spread of nationalistic deviation.
SOVIET UNION
The New Budget The provisions of9 budget adopted
by the Supreme Soviet reflect Increased Soviet emphasis on lrdustrlal and military production. Although the allocation to national economy representedominal Increase over8ubstantial expansion In heavy industry is planned. Comparedhe appropriation for capital construction rose fromoillion rubles.andlrom Industry profits were set atnsteadubles. Moreover,ncrease in the amount allocated for agricultural mechanization suggests that some of these funds may be diverted to the production of mechanized equipment suitable for militaryreliminary analysis of strictly military appropriations (announced and concealed)ossible increaseillion rubles to. This is the first announced Increase inhe total military allocation representsf the toUl budget andf the national income of the Soviet Union. Moreover, these figures do not include such additional military accrualsatellite military production for Sovietilitary plants being receivedequisitions for the maintenance of occupation forces.
Role In UN Despite recent shifts In high-level Soviet personnel,
there is no indication that the Kremlin Is planning an early Soviet withdrawal from the UN. The USSR will continue its aggressive obstructionist tactics and will remain in the UN in orderrevent it fromody exclusively oriented toward these itounding board for Soviet propaganda;eto any enforcement measures which threaten Soviet interests. Meanwhile, however, the USSR's fundamental hostility to the UN's developing economic, scientific, and social activities is becoming more apparent. The USSR, realizing that the struggle between East and West will for the next few years
SOVIET UNION
be largely in tbe economic and social sphere, is increasingly concerned that the UN willtructure ofcooperation Inimical to Soviet aims. Soviet propaganda with increasing vehemence is attacking such agencies as the International Bank, World Monetary Fund, World HealthInternational Refugee Organization, Food and Agricultural Organization, and international Labor Organization--aL of which are being branded as US-dominated and as serving the interests of western imperialists. The vigor of the attacks also reveals the Kremlin's appreciation of the role these agencies can play in Implementing the Truman program for aid to backward areas.
Pressure on Scandinavia The many rumors of Increases In
the number or movement of Soviet troops along the Finnish border are believed to be deliberately Inspired by the USSR as partar-of-nerves against the Scandinavian countries. This war-of-nerves has the twin goalreventing Scandinavian participation in the Atlantic Pact, or at least lessening the effectiveness ofntimidating border-line countries throughout the world who may wish to form closer ties with the West. It Is unlikely that the USSR Is preparing for armed intervention In Finland or the other Scandinavian countries, although thewill probably increase its economic and political pressure against Finland.
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NEAR EAST-AFRICA
IRAN
Soviet Relations Intensified Soviet pressure against Iran is expectedesult of the recent serious deterioration in relations between the two countries. Principal actors causing this deterioration havehe suppression
IRAN
of Ihe pro-Soviet Tudeh Party inar more belligerent anti-Soviet Iranianhe shipment of US arms to Iran;ublic reference to the possibility of Iranian participationediterranean or Near Eastern pact. The USSR probably sees In theseurther threat to Us principal immediate aims in Iran: gaining control over Iranian oil and blocking closer military ties between Iran and the West. Increased Soviei pressure will probably not take the lorn, of overt military Intervention. Instead, tbe USSR will probably renew its demands that bran maintain "friendly" relations with the USSR and build up Soviet troopon the banian border. The Soviet Union may also attempt to incite uprisings In Azerbaijan. In order to counteract such measures, Iran will probably inform the UN Security Council of the deterioration In Soviet-Iranian relations and pressS denial of Soviet charges that Iran Is being turned Into an offensive base against the USSR.
Original document.
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