REVIEW OF CIA ESTIMATE ORE 60-48: THREATS TO THE SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES

Created: 7/25/1949

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

CENTRAL IWiLT-IOEWCS AGSNi]"

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'.UflJECYi f CIA EaMaiiio: o thof tho Ottttad States (Published 2fl.

threats to OS security and the possibility of directt.clion against the Host have been under continuing review duringfern years. In, datedhreete

to the Security of the Unitedt was eetInvited that nithin tho neat decade the USSR em unlikely deliberately to resort to war to gain its end unless it considered that it *ao in imuinent danger of attack by the Western Toners. In, datedntitled "Possibility of Direct Military Action" it ens estimatedeliberate Soviet resort to military action againot the Vest9 "as improbable. It aaa pointed out In the latter study, however, that international tension had increased8 and that it nould probably Increase furthern these circuetstancea it was estimated that the danger of an unintended outbreak of hostilities through miscalculation on either side must be considered to have increased.

reviee of developments since publication ofonfirmation to the bade estistate that tho USSR ia unlikely

Note: this cecorandun is in process of coordination with the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Amy, Flawy, and the Air Force.

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deliberately to renort to direct roil'ltary action duringnext dtcrCe and to the specific estimate thatresort to cdlitary action duringa ircprobihie. TheseliVeffiso pointubstantial roductlo-in the danger of an unintendedof hostilities through sdsCslo'tflAtlOfl on either eido. The most significant may be noted oa fellow*.:

USSR accepted the signing of tha Atlantic Pact s'thcutnovo* against Finland, Scandinavia,d Iren,considered possible.

tension has beer subetan*-iall7 redixed byin proposing to lift the Berlin Blockade in consideration ofof the Council of Foreign Uinisters. Tho USSR haa likewisea desire te increaserade and to continue discussionsFour-Power basis in further nestings of the CFM.

Increasing evidences of nationalistdifficulties in the satellite states bring into sharp reliefwsakneaaea ln the position of the USSR and the need for aof peace in order to consolidate its position within its own sphere.

A. The unexpectedly rapid risetrong Cor-cainist State in China offers the USSR, on the cne harid, the opportunity of quicklyts influence by peaceful ssans in Asia and, on the other, confronta it viti the delicate problem of attempting to bring tho new Cousuniat regjia into the framework cf an International dictatorship directed freer. Voaeom, eliberate resort to military action to attain its

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Euro pa Jti^fct adversely affect these favorable prospects of attaining Soviet objectives in the rVr East by peaceful mans.

e. Tho devalopnent of the economic recession ln the US and the dollar crisis fn the UK appears to have oonfirmed the USSH in its beliefeneral economic crisis in the capitalist acrid is at hand. Under those circumstances tho USSR undoubtedly anticipates that OS support of Western Europe sill be substantially weakened, that fcestera unity will be disrupted by conflicting economic interests and that,esult, opportunities sill open up for the attainment of Soviet objectives without resort to military action,

3. It is concluded, therefore, that the danger of war as the result of deliberate Soviet military action or of miscalculations on the part of either side will bo less during the next year or two than at any time in recent years. Ronever, if economic conditions deteriorate, particularly in Japan or Germany, it la possible thatexploitation of these difficulties might create local disturbances that would increase tho internal security problem of US occupation forces.

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Original document.

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