RAKDUH9
SUBJECT: Strategic Significance of Antifriction Bearings Boring to Eastern Europe.
SUld'ART OF OOKCLUSIDNS.
The Sorlet Onion la now importing anti-friction bearings both for internal use andtockpiling measure- Although some industrial plants and users of equipment are experiencing acute shortages of certain types of imported bearings, significant quantities of these bearings are beingfor stockpiling purposes.
Procurement and distribution of anti-friction bearings throughout tha Soviet orbit is centrally directed by the Soviet Union.
Soviet-directed Imports are for both military and industrial use. The total inventory of industrial equipment althin the orbit Is predominantly of foreign origin and requires anti-frictionplaceraenta from foreign manufacturers. It is probable that this problem is partially met by cannlba liaation rather than through uao of imported bearings. The analysis of Inquiries and requirements as stated in Intelligence databy US Government engineers and techniciansredominant Import of potentially military end-use anti-friction bearings.
The quantities of anti-friction bearings non sought by the Soviet orbit and probably actually being imported are in excess of reasonable peacetime consumption. Analysis of Soviet Imports of ant1-friction bearings indicates quantities far in excess of original estimates8 and evenhaaie on imports during the first part These imports include not only finished, assembled anti-friction bearing units but also specialbearing steelubing, bar stock, and coil stock) and parte (retainers, ateel balla, rollers, etc.). Kith western manufacture increasing production schedules, lt is probable that, barring effective economic controls, imports by the Soviet orbit sill continue to increase. Sweden, ln particular, haa already5 percent increase in manufacturing capacity for which there seems to be no outlet other than the Soviet countries.
While significant quantities of direct shipments are being made to ths Soviet orbit by Sweden, Italy, andery large quantity ln
MoteiThis report has not been coordinated with the intelligence
organisations of the Departments of State, Army, Revy* and the Air fores.
FOR DECLASSIFICATION ACTIOS
excess of official trade agreements are being provided by producing countries through transshipa-ants. Tha aost comoiJy used route for transshipments of US, Italian, Saedlah, Geraan, and French laanufaeturers is through Switzerland and Austria Into Czechoslovakia.
Because of tho great strategic Importance of all anti-friction bearings. It vould appear that denial of exports to be affective, would hava to be on an all-incluslae taals, rather thanumberingprecision" classification,ype classification.
OSES AND CHARACTERISTICS OFBRAKINGS
The use of anti-friclion bearings underlies every oparntion of an industrial econoay. There isoving part of metal or solid material which doea not revolve, roll, or slide on snti-frlctlon bearings. lain bearing still forice an important part in coving mechanisms, basic ration at high speeds (or even slow motion requiring durable and aaooth performance) ia dependent on anti-fraction (ball, roller, and needle) bearings. In spite of some claims that modern industrialisation has been "over-sold* oo anti-friction bearings, that criticism ia applicable only to types and specifications, and in no way reflects on the basic necessity of usingbearings of soma type throughout an industrial economy.
The use of ball and roller bearings by Anerlcan manufacturers of machinery did not become general until lv It nas probably the widespread use and durability of bearings shown in automotive applications thattheir usefulness to the machinery builder and decided the change fron plain to antl-frictlon bearlnga. In tha case of electric motor applications, the first installations ware made In steel mills and oement mllla, where the life of plain bearings rangeden daysew months. lain bearing wore outotor, it usually meant that tha armature dropped down onto the atator resulting in damare that often required complete rewiring of the motor. The failureall or roller bearing does not create auch Oarage. Other reasons for the widespread adoption of antl-frictlon bearings are as follows: (a) less power is lostesult of the lower coefficient of friction; (b) starting resistance is less; (c) ball bearlnga are shorter than plain bearings and pre compact; (d) the danger of heated bearlnga is el ind nated; (e) deflectionshaft can be compensated for in the bearing design; (f) wear and replacement costs are reducedj and (g) higher speeds can be obtained in operation.
Practically all the machine toola code In the United States ahether they are In textile, food processing, automotive, steel mill, or other Industries, use antl-frictlon bearings onoving shafts - The Soviets, in establishing their designs of machinery and equipment, copies those of the united States. In doing this, they incorporated ball and roller bearings as component parts.
Above and beyond direct capital goods use, many other items of equipment other than capital goods are today totally dependent on anti-friction bearings. Standard factory housekeeping equipment, such as cranes, air compressors, pumps, mechanical and control instrumentation, laboratory devices, andare designed to use antl-frictlon bearings. Ko aircraft, tank, or autorsotlve vehicle can operate without acme form of antl-frictlon bearings. In turn, the development and engineering of moving parts requiring preciseneas, durability, and heavy lead-carrying strength In rjodorn equipment has been underwritten by the development of high standards in anti-friction bearing production. odem machine ia built to operate only within the toleraneos of certain bearing specifications.
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One of the primary functions of tho use of anti-friction bearings is to increaae the life of the mecnanzled equipment. Bearinga, in turn,ife expectancy, according to use, ofew sonths to three or four years, are nowerishable item requiring constant replacement.
The characteristics of bearings render them sensitive and vulnerable to economic controls during peacetime. In time of war, however, since supplies are noraally on hand for immediate replacement needs, and since warfare inflicts attrition on the entire economic equipment inventory (thus negating the use of such equipment and its attendant replacement of componentearings, as such, cannot beulnerable target for control or destruction. Studies of tha results of strategic bombing and economic controls during World War II have proved to participating countries (including the USSR) that control of anti-friction bearings cuat be undertaken before actual war commences and not during the course of the war.
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ESTIUaTE OFIINGS SlTUaTlON IN EASTEKh EUROfE
It ia aatlaated that tha total irreducible minimum bearing requirements of the Sotlet orbit ereillion units annually. Soviet orbit production is approximatelyercent of this requirement. Howerer, quantitative figures representmall part of the total figure. Quail -tatlve and strategic requirements are the predominant factors in any total review of Eastern Europe requirements.
b. ftrtucUm.
although producing approximatelyillion bearingandon additional several millionho USSR haa failed to supply tha Satellites with anyegligible quantity even though equipment of high priority io being manufactured by the satellites solely for Soviet use. Recognizing the strategic importance of anti-friction bearings, the USSR haa given the entire problem very close attention. Intelligence reports clearly indicate that the eovement of anti-friction bearinga Into end within the Soviet orbit haa been, and continues to be, directed by the USSR, Although Soviet bearing production haa increased, lt is believed that tha USSR itselfmported bearings for more thanercent of its needs. Overall requirements, however, have beenow priority in favor of certain sizes for stockpiling purposes.
Csechoslovaklan bearing production, which la negligible in comparison with that of eny large producing country, has increased somewhat in the lastn tha. Of the other countries in the Soviet orbit, Sovsone Go many is also producing anti-friction bearinga in limited quantities. Czechoslovakia, baa not yet been able to produce the steel balls required for their own production of bearings.
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ESTImaTE OF THE BEaRINGS SITUaTJOH IN WESTERN EUROPE
During the post few months, there hasefinite changoeller's marketuyer's market in anti-friction bearings. Western European manufaoturers are producing quantities sufficient for domestic needs.
One of the primary producers, SKF Seed en, hasee expansion this spring in tha capacity of plant facilities vhleh will permit alnorease of overercent of the eaapany's previous production. The company'e backlog has been reduced to current demand and the supplying of normal commercial stocks. Other than the need fer certain smell categories unique to SEP, it is difficult to see the potential market for the expanded Swedish production within Tie stem world markets. Present Swedish production Is approximatelyillion bearinga per year.
Italian bearing production has noc completely recovered from the effects of the war. Tha only domestic limitation is the supply of anti-friction bearing-steel. Since Italian production was oxpended during the war, Italyotential capacity much greater than prewar. Current production ie estimated atillion bearings par /ear.
German blzone production hasapid recovery, esult of reparations, and destruction cf nachlnery during the ear, the plants at Schweinfurt nave been permitted by the siliUry Government to obtain new equipment and are continuing toplant facilitiesotentially greater output. Although the German plants are not, at present,4 hour working basis, and production Is limited by ftestem allied controls, the plants can quickly change to throe shifts. Biaone product ion has risen to an estimatedUlico annually.
The Austrian bearing center at Steyr-Da lmler-Puch waa also significantly expended during the war and ia now producing noreillion bearing units annually.
Current bearing production ln Switzerland la estimated Swiss bearing nanufeoturers are operating below capacity andln noed of aarkets. Before the war, Switzerland was theof supply for certlsn types of precision instrument bearinga. There-
although Swlsa bearing production is not largo compared to that of
other countries, tha Swiss supply is of great strategic importance.
Franco plans to complete the axpansion of its bearing industry Current French production ranges fromoillion units annually.
The United Kingdom hasarge producer of anti-friction bearings andarge expert businasc. Present production is estimated atillion bearings per year.
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OFFICIAL AND UNOFFICIAL SHIPMENTS TO THE EAST BY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Although reports of bearing exports by Western European producers to Eastern European countries have been shown to be within the quantities expressed in some trade agreements, information froa other sources has been confimad thtit considerable quantities beyondade agreements are being exported*
irm atatistics on Swedish exports to Eastern Europe havereported, but it is probable that shipments9 will bs in excessannual trade-agreement provisions,, Previous agreementsunfulfilled and provided for accumulated balances in favor of theSweden waa to fulfill in commodities,. An estimatedof Swedishis exported* & the Soviet orbit received about
lthough Italian trade coccailresnts to Eastern Europe provide for substantial quantltlea, there ia some evidence that shipments will be in excess of trade agreement proviolonso Several reports contain concrete evidence that bearings manufactured In Italy have been routed directly to Switzerland for tranaahlpment to Eastern European countries.. Normal export traffic would be through Austria* Quantities passing through Trieste are unknown,, Shipments are Irregular and usually hava no dlatlrajuiahlng aarka* They are expected to continue along this route untillthough freight loadings mav be increased*
Italian shipments to Eastern Europe3 totalled betweenthree and four million unite, before official commitments to Eastern European countries wore effectively implemented by trade agreements,,
izone reports on transshipment of domestic bearlnga, andthrough Belgium and Holland have been confirmed,. The total extenttraffic has not been accurately determine do Export-importIn transshipment are located in Holland, Belgium and Switzerland,, quantity of reliable reports have been received of specificlargely In the nature of disguised shipments and falsificationpapers across the Oerman border both directly to CBOchoslovaklaSwitzerland and Austria. Thsinvolved are unquestionablyvolume
SwitzerlandMany emigres and opportunists have set up fly-by-nightimport nouses in Switzerland for conducting shipment negotiations with Eastern Europeo These anas export-import firms are continually soliciting orders from the US and other producing countries, ostensibly for domestic Swlsa consumption In every case where these Inquiries have been Investigated, and the operators have given end-uses, it hus been disclosed that no such inquiry or need
originated with the Swlae consumers, and that the type of bearlnga reported to be needed by the Swiss consumers were not actually of the type used. In addition to transhipments of bearlnga of other than Swiss manufacture, many middlemen within Switzerland huvoalse market for Swiss-manufactured bearlnga, which are shipped to Eastern Europe through Austria
ha exports of bearlnga froa the Cnited Kingdom to tha Loviet orbito wore reported as beingnite, with Czechoslovakia receiving half. The comparatively small total mayesult of the method of classification of "Precision" bearlnga and posalbly does not cover total shlpmontso
ustria has played an Important part in tbe trans shipment of bearings from the blsone imd Switzerland. In Vienna, Cxschoslovarian mi.ddlo-nan operating under Oaaipol (Caech Slate gency) under the direction of Soviet import agencies, have purchased bearings In lotsrom other Hostem European countries, sometimes claiming that these exports were to be made to another Astern country. The re vie* of acme of the specific bearlnga sought shows that bearings of the specifications desired were not for use In Austria, but were of the heavier type most readily used In ordnance and heavy industry. In addition, there hasontinuing purchase, within Austria, of domestically manufactured bearings for products going to the 0SSR. Unique among the many casea of this type is an order placedelatively light winchpecial typo of bearing not normally used in winches. In thia case an independent
oource reported that imported winches were being dismantled by the Soviets for tbe purpose of aalvaglng the bearings. Tho type of bearings apeoifled tonda to
confirm this report.
he three countries forming tho Benelux Union are extenaively engaged In transshipment, but the numerous reports confirming transshipment do notlear picture of annual quantities. Confirmation of the traffic In large single shipmente, however, parallels tha character of SwissInassmch as importers give false information to manufacturers as to the end-use and destination of the bearlnga.
Several doeuaenta are available giving specific categories of antl-frlctl< bearlnga desired by the Soviet Bloc. Regardless of the country of origin of these inquiries, the quantities and character or the bearlnga are remarkably similar. The specific nature of the information available on these inquiries and purchases leads. Ipso facto, to the conclusion that Soviet-orbit purcbaelni la centrally organised^
In seme cises where the evidence concerns only specific lot shipments of relatively small quantitlos, however, it acorns possible that the bearings are for Satellite production of industrial goods and war material deatined for the USSR, which gosda, in turn, are procured by centralized
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notable example of evidence of thia indirect use of bearlnga io disclosed in documents detailing types of bearings required and imported by Czechoslovakia. These bearings are purportedly for use in tanks, and for some war material which Is sent on for possible further processing in Polandend destination of these goods being the USSRo The nature of this specific traffic is still being investigated.
Detailed reports specifically define Satellite export-import centers as being subordinate to tha central comalssion for imports and exports in Koscowo
These procurement programs have been reported to be highly secret. It may be noted here, also, that since export controls in the OS were Installed, the USSR has concentrated on purchasing, through Satellite channels In Western Europe, many commodities other than anti-friction bearings, and haa made little or no attempt to break the controls within the U3 directly through its purchasing agents.
RtOBLUEDEHISTRATIVK CONTROLS
A> Stockpiling andRequi resents.
"Excessive levels" of Soviet orbit imports of anti-friction boaringa cannot oe accurately estimated for the following reasonsi
1- One factor affecting requirements ia ths difference between normal stock inventory practices and strategic stockpiling purposes. Requirements for normal stock inventory practices vary by the country and economic systeoo The Soviet la probably unique in its strategic stockpiling practices alnce such stockpiling receives priority over normal stock inventory practices,
2. There are also several variables in replacement needs whichountry<s During tho postwar period, extraordinary replace-mont needs in consequences of excessive wartime deterioration of suchin normal Industrial and peacetime equipment were evident in several Western European countries. In addition, deterioration, resulting froa lew maintainanca standards and careless use within the Soviet Bloc would probably be aervaral times more than normal replacement needs under western European practices.
Requirements should also be defined, particularly for Eastern Europe,
in tarns of Industrial expansion. Planned expansion Is considerably at
variance with real exoanslon. An expansion would necessitate an increased need for anti-frlotlon bearings, but the degree of such expansion is still to be determined.
lu The fact that no one country manufactures all slice and types, further affects the imports of bearings0 Even such major producers as Sweden require the importation of certain bearing types not manufactured domestically. In addition, tbe bearing industry varies by countries in the need for special steels and steel shapes, as well as component parts.
5w Prewar Imports have, heretofore, boon usedule-of-thumb guide in some instances of export control. Bearing production, however, has been oxpanded since the prewar era, and new production hus boon Inaugurated in countries heretofore) not producing bearing*,, Those factors, plus the increase of production within tha Soviet Bloc ln the pootwnr years, would necessarily distort any requirement level based on prewar imports.
6, in OS exports of anti-friction bearinga to Europeaninor factor is the supply of replacement parts by OS equipment and automotive manufacturere. With the dumping of surplus US supplies throughout the world, and the expansion of markets overseas since the and of the war, OS manufacturers
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been exporting bearlnga for the supply of replacements overseas In equipment of OS origin. In so doing they have been declaring these bearings as component parts or aa subassemblies, rather than as exported bearings0
7o Evenevel is established on the basis of an Eastern European urgent or "minimum consuaptlons noted previously in this report, Eastern Europe can still stockpile for war use to the detriment of several branchS3 of tha economy. ew bearings exported under United export control miglit be detilmental to the national security of the US,
b. Definition of "Precision" Bearings.
There Is no definition of "precision" bearings which' would be adequate for administratis procedures. Close tolerances may be defined for any oneumber of surfaces, radii, and diameters for any one particular bearing.
Although "precision"pecial meaning among manufacturers of bearings, and to some consumers (such as aircraft and Instrumentlmost the entire field of commercial bearings manufactured in the OS, Sweden, OK, and Switzerland are held to closo tolerances for comnarcial use. ery small catagory of assembled cear-inga--aucb as casters, stamped bearings, and unground steelnot come within the definition of "precision" boaringSo
C Control by Specifications.
Although the foregoing indicates certain brackets of series numbers whichredominately military end-use. It is generally rarely possible to ascribe exclusive military end-use to any particular categories with the exceptionew aircraft and accessory series numbers. During the past war the pattern of wartime manufacture of anti-friction bearings in the OS differed not so much in the specific change in specifications manufactured, but in the quantities of certain categories. Therefore, bearing manufacturers facedhange from war production to peacetime production, or vlce-veroa,ery real conversion problem. The problem was not so much ono ofand manufactureew specific bearings as it waa mass production of certain bearings required In great quantity during wartime.
It Is possible, however, that specifications for war material in theconsiderably more rigid than those used within the Soviet Orbit. IfOrbit war material requirements can be expected to be morefor greater substitution and interchange ability ofrequirements. For example, certain types of roller bearings canfor ball-bearing uses, and although the performance will notgreat an efficiency, the difference is only relative. The highlyantl-frictlon bearing industry, facing tbe problemide rangeconcluded, theoretically, that It ralsht ba possible torange from any thousands of types and sizesdnimumindustry, howevor, never found it practical to attempt to Imolcment
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Administrative controls of bearings by specification are further cocaxlicated by the lack of acrid-wide- uniformity in bearing numbers. Jithin the .ns, bearing numbers carry individual manufacturers' catalogue numbers; and though,ajority can be translated Into SKF catalogue numbers, there are many problems that have to be met in standardizing one complete catalogue of all bearing mothers laanufactured In the OS. European catalogue numbers are alao Individually tradamarfcad by eachhus the RI7 (Italian) numbering system is not the same as Swedish SKF, nor US manufacturers' catalogue numbers. Swiss manufacturers systems are entirely unlike Italian and International SKF numbers. Tho same is true of individual French manufacturers, honco any overall control by numbers would present an enormously complicated problem of standardising all manufacturero' series numbers.
Inasmuch as anti-friction boar Inge do not constitute bulky or conspicuous shipments, the simple problem of controlling bearings, as such, would be the first Item to study before the problem of individual series numbers could be undertaken.
D. Control by Size Range.
ossible alternative to IOC* control ofompromise might be effected with producer countries by Vie establishmentize ranz* of bearings which would bo subject to control.
Sites smeller thanlUlmotor bore are ccemonly 'used In instruments-while sizes larger thanillimeter bore are usod in trucks, tanks, self-propellod gun mounts, aircraft engines, and ln industry generally connected with munitions production, bearings beyond tbe range listed are of the greatest importance inar potential, although practically all sizes are used In military material.
Bearings of ccsroroial quality, ranging in bore sixes0 millimetersaximum ofillimeters, in all types (aingle row, double row, thrust, angular contact ball bearings, tapered and straight roller bearinga, and noodle bearings aa well aa automobile front wheel and clutch-throw-out bearings) would be the only sizes free of export controls, sizes below or above this range of bore slzee, including all bearinga of unusual tolerances or special nature would be controlled.
It is pointed out that the sizes that would not be controlled would Include the majority of those normally exported for non-military peacetime uae. It is true that many of these same sizes are being used for military applications. From an exporter's point of view there should be no objections, since such limited control should result in an ample volume of export business.
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In order to exert ef foe tire bearing oontrolumber of rears, it would be necessary tolose study of the export and import of steel, bronse, and other metals used in bearingsi of component bearing parte (balls, inner and outer rings, andnd also of the machine tools required for mass production of bearings*
Anti-friction bearings are made of special alloy steels, and mass production manufactureighly specialized machining problem. The Soviet Orbit Imports not only finished bearing units, but also considerable quantities of specialised antl-frictlon bearing steels. Although Swedenarge exporter of thia commodity (and Swedish trade agreements report itther manufacturing countries are assumed to be shipping tbe sane types of steel, buteneral category not specifying antl-frictlon bearing steels-.
The Soviet Orbit lc also Importing component parts, auch as steel ballsB Weatern manufacturing countries have been exporting critical component parts which are not reported as assembled bearing units..
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Original document.
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